Workday, Inc. (WDAY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicWDAY trades at 45.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 60.0x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.9. DCF fair value of $299 implies 106% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits a robust fundamental profile characterized by exceptional gross margin compression at 75.7%, indicative of strong pricing power or high-value SaaS economics, though this is offset by a net margin of only 7.3%. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the modest ROE of 8.9% is primarily driven by operational leverage via an equity multiplier of 2.32x rather than superior asset efficiency, which sits at just 0.53x turnover. Despite this structural reliance on financial leverage to boost returns, quality metrics remain compelling; a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong fundamentals with improving balance sheet health and profitability trends, while the Beneish M-Score of -2.79 effectively rules out earnings manipulation concerns. This combination suggests a high-quality business where growth is being funded through leverage rather than organic capital expansion alone.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at an expansive 51.1x P/E, substantially higher than typical sector peers for software infrastructure plays, yet the DCF model implies a fair value of $286 with a calculated upside of over 120%. This wide gap suggests the market is currently pricing in aggressive growth assumptions that may not align with the implied free cash flow trajectory; specifically, the long-term FCF growth rate embedded in the valuation appears to be only 4.3% annually. Consequently, while the absolute DCF target offers substantial theoretical upside, the current multiple implies a belief in sustained acceleration of earnings power beyond what the low single-digit FCF growth projection supports.
Risk assessment highlights a notable disconnect between institutional sentiment and insider positioning. Despite the high-quality Piotroski score and favorable M-Score indicating financial integrity, insiders have executed significant net selling totaling over $130 million within the last 90 days. This substantial outflow by those with superior information regarding future prospects contrasts sharply with the bullish valuation thesis embedded in current prices. While the fundamental economics and quality scores remain intact, the heavy insider liquidation serves as a critical risk factor that warrants caution before assuming the market's premium valuation is fully justified or sustainable given internal management confidence levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 13% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $359 | $271 | $216 |
| 3% | $409 | $299 | $233 |
| 4% | $480 | $334 | $253 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $144.78.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $299 (+106.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 42% below its 5-year average P/E of 77.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like CLOU or MOAT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WDAY shares regardless of Workday, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to WDAY through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Workday, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Workday, Inc. (WDAY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (AKAM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with WDAY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WDAY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 WDAY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Workday, Inc. (WDAY) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.0% of the CLOU (CLOU) and 0.8% of the MOAT (MOAT). Across 34 tracked ETFs, approximately 39M shares (19.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest WDAY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 34 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WDAY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Workday, Inc. over the past year sits near $127.80 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $144.78 trades 13.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WDAY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Workday, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Workday, Inc. converts 189% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 8,254 | $137.47 | $1.1M |
| 2026-06-10 | 4,790 | $140.23 | $671,701.7 |
| 2026-06-09 | 27 | $143.76 | $3,881.52 |
| 2026-06-04 | 79,384 | $146.90 | $11.7M |
| 2026-06-02 | 23,768 | $157.23 | $3.7M |
| 2026-06-01 | 486 | $146.19 | $71,048.34 |
| 2026-05-29 | 327 | $130.01 | $42,513.27 |
| 2026-05-26 | 600 | $128.14 | $76,884 |
| 2026-05-22 | 6,371 | $121.85 | $776,306.35 |
| 2026-05-19 | 263 | $128.88 | $33,895.44 |
| 2026-05-18 | 1,907 | $125.01 | $238,394.07 |
| 2026-05-15 | 15 | $118.75 | $1,781.25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 89 | $130.88 | $11,648.32 |
| 2026-05-04 | 684 | $126.96 | $86,840.64 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7 | $122.40 | $856.8 |
| 2026-04-29 | 85 | $121.18 | $10,300.3 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2 | $126.60 | $253.2 |
| 2026-04-17 | 4 | $124.87 | $499.48 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $117.86 | $353.58 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2,838 | $113.06 | $320,864.28 |
| 2026-04-08 | 3,374 | $127.51 | $430,218.74 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,342 | $129.72 | $433,524.24 |
| 2026-04-06 | 17,294 | $132.26 | $2.3M |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,200 | $129.92 | $155,904 |
| 2026-03-30 | 8 | $124.18 | $993.44 |
| 2026-03-27 | 84,396 | $127.97 | $10.8M |
| 2026-03-25 | 87,527 | $129.29 | $11.3M |
| 2026-03-24 | 17,407 | $137.06 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-23 | 5,450 | $135.96 | $740,982 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1 | $132.29 | $132.29 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CRM | 0.754 | 0.817 | High co-movement |
| NOW | 0.750 | 0.808 | High co-movement |
| INTU | 0.729 | 0.753 | High co-movement |
| ADBE | 0.724 | 0.786 | High co-movement |
| PAYC | 0.654 | 0.730 | Moderate |
| ACN | 0.626 | 0.695 | Moderate |
| PAYX | 0.611 | 0.690 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WDAY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.