Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.1x earnings — a 66% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — CRM is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.6. DCF fair value of $350 implies 103% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Salesforce present a tension between high-quality earnings generation and inefficient capital allocation. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that returns are driven primarily by robust net margins at 18.0% rather than asset turnover or leverage, the negative ROIC-WACC spread of -3.0% signals that the company is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. This inefficiency contrasts with a moderately strong Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 3.0 suggesting manageable distress risk, though the Beneish M-Score of -2.65 indicates low earnings manipulation probability. The divergence between these profitability metrics and the negative Risk-adjusted returns highlights a structural disconnect where top-line growth does not yet translate into efficient capital deployment.
Valuation analysis reveals significant market compression relative to historical norms and sector peers, with the current P/E multiple at 24.0x compared to a sector average of 42.2x. Discounted Cash Flow modeling suggests an implied fair value of $342, representing approximately 83% upside from present levels, contingent on realizing the assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 6.7%. This wide valuation gap implies the market may be pricing in prolonged execution challenges or persistent capital inefficiencies rather than sustainable margin expansion, creating a potential mean reversion opportunity if operational levers improve to align ROIC with WACC.
Risk factor analysis introduces notable headwinds despite modest insider accumulation totaling $71,168 over the last 90 days. The stock exhibits substantial exposure to growth and profitability anomalies, evidenced by Fama-French alphas of -55.48% annually alongside negative loadings on both Value (-0.628) and Profitability (-0.607) factors. These factor tilts suggest the asset has underperformed relative to its risk profile during periods where value and quality premiums were rewarded, indicating that future returns will likely depend heavily on a strategic shift toward more efficient capital usage rather than continued revenue scaling alone.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $412 | $322 | $263 |
| 3% | $459 | $350 | $281 |
| 4% | $522 | $385 | $302 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $200.84.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $350 (+102.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 33% below its 5-year average P/E of 31.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedSalesforce, Inc. is currently trading at $179.48, a position that demands careful observation regarding its relationship to the surrounding Simple Moving Average envelope structure. Without specific upper and lower band values provided in this dataset, it remains technically ambiguous whether the current price resides within the mean-reversion zone or has breached critical boundaries defined by historical volatility averages. If the stock is trading near the outer edges of a typical Bollinger Band configuration at this level, statistical probability suggests an increased likelihood of a pullback toward the central moving average line as prices often gravitate back to their long-term means after significant deviations. Conversely, if the price sits comfortably within the middle third of the envelope, it may indicate sustained momentum rather than imminent correction. The sector classification as Technology adds context regarding volatility expectations, yet without knowing the precise width of the SMA bands or recent standard deviation metrics, one cannot definitively characterize the current state as overbought or oversold based solely on this single data point. The relative value proposition hinges entirely on where $179.48 aligns with these dynamic statistical limits; a price significantly distant from the mean implies higher potential for reversal, whereas proximity to the average suggests stability but also limited immediate directional bias. Market participants must weigh this static figure against the fluid nature of moving averages to assess whether the asset is positioned for a bounce or a continuation trend. Ultimately, the technical narrative here relies on inferring the unseen band parameters from market behavior rather than explicit numerical
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | $0.4400 | +5.8% |
| 2025-12-18 | $0.4160 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-17 | $0.4160 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-18 | $0.4160 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-10 | $0.4160 | +4.0% |
| 2024-12-18 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-18 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-09 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.4000 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +510,400 | +96.0% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +594,768 | +11.1% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -370,750 | -84.4% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +6,000 | +21.7% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -156,400 | -88.7% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -138,420 | -66.3% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | -617,900 | -98.7% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | +215,000 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -65,025 | -12.9% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | +500,800 | +400.6% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | +84,000 | +90.9% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -636,399 | -10.6% | Decreased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IGV or CLOU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CRM shares regardless of Salesforce, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $22.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to CRM through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Salesforce, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CRM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 38 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CRM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CRM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 6.7% of the IGV (IGV) and 4.1% of the CLOU (CLOU). Across 37 tracked ETFs, approximately 119M shares (14.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CRM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 37 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CRM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Salesforce, Inc. over the past year sits near $183.18 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $200.84 trades 9.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CRM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Salesforce, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Salesforce, Inc. converts 115% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 25 | $165.84 | $4,146 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,202 | $186.34 | $223,980.68 |
| 2026-05-05 | 40 | $185.48 | $7,419.2 |
| 2026-05-04 | 896 | $183.82 | $164,702.72 |
| 2026-05-01 | 4,000 | $176.53 | $706,120 |
| 2026-04-29 | 19,460 | $181.32 | $3.5M |
| 2026-04-23 | 5 | $189.80 | $949 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $171.31 | $1,027.86 |
| 2026-04-13 | 250 | $164.96 | $41,240 |
| 2026-04-08 | 722 | $182.96 | $132,097.12 |
| 2026-04-07 | 100 | $185.03 | $18,503 |
| 2026-04-02 | 838 | $186.24 | $156,069.12 |
| 2026-03-31 | 80 | $185.03 | $14,802.4 |
| 2026-03-27 | 212 | $185.64 | $39,355.68 |
| 2026-03-26 | 21,587 | $181.96 | $3.9M |
| 2026-03-25 | 68 | $183.02 | $12,445.36 |
| 2026-03-18 | 140 | $195.31 | $27,343.4 |
| 2026-03-16 | 17,296 | $192.83 | $3.3M |
| 2026-03-09 | 50,095 | $202.11 | $10.1M |
| 2026-03-03 | 162 | $192.95 | $31,257.9 |
| 2026-02-27 | 80 | $199.47 | $15,957.6 |
| 2026-02-26 | 109,054 | $191.75 | $20.9M |
| 2026-02-19 | 12 | $187.79 | $2,253.48 |
| 2026-02-17 | 15,292 | $189.72 | $2.9M |
| 2026-02-13 | 108 | $185.43 | $20,026.44 |
| 2026-02-12 | 700 | $185.00 | $129,500 |
| 2026-02-11 | 8,911 | $193.45 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-09 | 25 | $191.35 | $4,783.75 |
| 2026-02-04 | 166 | $196.38 | $32,599.08 |
| 2026-01-30 | 5,509 | $214.08 | $1.2M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 5,962,210 | $297,991,256K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 1,041,900 | $52,074,162K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 215,000 | $10,745,700K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 70,300 | $3,513,594K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 68,663 | $3,431,777K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 33,600 | $1,679,328K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 20,000 | $999,600K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 7,900 | $394,842K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 5,367,442 | $297,570,984K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 625,800 | $34,694,352K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 531,500 | $29,466,360K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 439,413 | $24,361,057K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 208,720 | $11,571,437K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 176,400 | $9,779,616K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 27,600 | $1,530,144K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NOW | 0.728 | 0.741 | High co-movement |
| ADBE | 0.690 | 0.737 | Moderate |
| WDAY | 0.677 | 0.691 | Moderate |
| INTU | 0.615 | 0.706 | Moderate |
| PAYC | 0.610 | 0.670 | Moderate |
| GTLB | 0.607 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| ADSK | 0.583 | 0.585 | Moderate |
| TENB | 0.570 | 0.553 | Moderate |
| GEN | 0.550 | 0.609 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CRM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.