LUMN (LUMN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z -0.3.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of LUMN reveal a significant divergence between operational cash generation efficiency and overall profitability, characterized by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -10.9%. While the gross margin remains robust at 46.5%, indicating strong pricing power or cost control on revenue recognition, this is being eroded by net margins contracting to -14.0% amid declining revenue growth of -5.4% year-over-year. The DuPont decomposition suggests that leverage and asset turnover are insufficient to offset the margin compression driving a negative ROIC relative to the 7.1% cost of capital. Further concerning signals emerge from solvency metrics: an Altman Z-Score of -0.3 places the entity in distress territory, whereas the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates moderate financial strength but lacks the robustness typically associated with high-quality compounders.
Valuation analysis must be contextualized within this backdrop of deteriorating fundamentals and negative free cash flow generation implied by the widening spread between ROIC and WACC. Although a ten-year implied free cash flow growth rate stands at 14.9%, suggesting potential for future mean reversion or cyclical recovery, current market pricing appears to have already factored in substantial downside risk given the structural losses. The disconnect between historical profitability norms and present-day operational realities suggests that any multiple expansion would require a fundamental shift in the underlying business model rather than mere earnings stabilization.
Risk assessment is further complicated by conflicting integrity signals; while a Beneish M-Score of -3.42 points toward low probability of manipulation, the negative Altman Z-Score introduces substantial credit and liquidity risk. The combination of shrinking revenues and deep losses creates a precarious environment where even modest increases in borrowing costs or working capital requirements could exacerbate solvency pressures. Investors must weigh the potential for a cyclical rebound against the immediate threat posed by capital destruction inherent in operating below the cost of equity.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAt the current price of $7.44, LUMN exhibits a specific technical configuration that warrants observation regarding its immediate trajectory. While precise moving average levels are not provided in this snapshot, the focus remains on interpreting how such positions typically signal market sentiment when prices fluctuate relative to these benchmarks. If the share price were trading above key short-term and long-term averages, it would generally indicate an uptrend where bullish momentum is prevailing; conversely, positioning below them often suggests a corrective phase or bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), though its specific value is absent here, serves as a critical gauge for determining if the asset is entering overbought territory, potentially signaling a short-term pullback, or oversold conditions that might precede a rebound. Synthesizing these factors requires looking at the interplay between price action and momentum indicators to understand the underlying market dynamics without assigning definitive directional value. A scenario where price remains elevated above moving averages while RSI shows moderate strength could imply sustained upward pressure, whereas divergence between rising prices and weakening RSI might foreshadow a potential trend exhaustion. Similarly, if the asset is trading below its average cost basis with low momentum readings, it may reflect consolidation or continued distribution by market participants. These technical elements collectively paint a picture of current market structure rather than predicting future outcomes, allowing observers to assess whether the prevailing conditions align with established trends or signal an impending shift in direction based on historical behavior patterns inherent to such metrics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-08-29 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2022-05-27 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2022-03-07 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2021-11-26 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2021-08-27 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2021-05-28 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2021-03-05 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2020-11-27 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2020-08-28 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2020-05-29 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2020-03-06 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2019-11-29 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTL or SLYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell LUMN shares regardless of LUMN's individual fundamentals. We estimate $562M of passive capital is structurally linked to LUMN through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on LUMN's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in LUMN to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If LUMN (LUMN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with LUMN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
LUMN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 15 LUMN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
LUMN (LUMN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.0% of the XTL (XTL) and 0.6% of the SLYV (SLYV). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 71M shares (6.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest LUMN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
LUMN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for LUMN over the past year sits near $4.45 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $10.56 trades 137.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
LUMN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does LUMN convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
LUMN converts 28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 72% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-10.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 203 | $9.40 | $1,908.2 |
| 2026-05-13 | 17 | $8.67 | $147.39 |
| 2026-04-28 | 1,392 | $8.94 | $12,444.48 |
| 2026-04-27 | 36,543 | $8.84 | $323,040.12 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,619 | $9.01 | $14,587.19 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,793 | $9.26 | $25,863.18 |
| 2026-04-16 | 22,336 | $8.59 | $191,866.24 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,524 | $7.44 | $11,338.56 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2,931 | $7.09 | $20,780.79 |
| 2026-04-01 | 350 | $6.95 | $2,432.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | 172 | $6.49 | $1,116.28 |
| 2026-03-17 | 171 | $6.69 | $1,143.99 |
| 2026-03-09 | 49,887 | $6.62 | $330,251.94 |
| 2026-03-06 | 51 | $6.83 | $348.33 |
| 2026-03-04 | 1,429 | $6.93 | $9,902.97 |
| 2026-03-02 | 899 | $7.11 | $6,391.89 |
| 2026-02-03 | 12,364 | $8.93 | $110,410.52 |
| 2026-01-29 | 16,837 | $9.16 | $154,226.92 |
| 2026-01-28 | 20,359 | $9.29 | $189,135.11 |
| 2026-01-21 | 3,802 | $8.01 | $30,454.02 |
| 2026-01-20 | 5,445 | $8.45 | $46,010.25 |
| 2026-01-13 | 799 | $7.95 | $6,352.05 |
| 2025-12-23 | 229 | $7.77 | $1,779.33 |
| 2025-12-22 | 14,876 | $8.19 | $121,834.44 |
| 2025-12-18 | 15,775 | $7.63 | $120,363.25 |
| 2025-12-15 | 670 | $8.50 | $5,695 |
| 2025-12-05 | 13,492 | $8.78 | $118,459.76 |
| 2025-12-04 | 2,954 | $9.57 | $28,269.78 |
| 2025-12-03 | 4,629 | $9.14 | $42,309.06 |
| 2025-11-24 | 298 | $7.59 | $2,261.82 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| APH | 0.432 | 0.510 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.427 | 0.428 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.422 | 0.470 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.419 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| AMD | 0.405 | 0.460 | Moderate |
| NVDA | 0.395 | 0.463 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.384 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| ASML | 0.380 | 0.439 | Moderate |
| USN070592100 | 0.379 | 0.438 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare LUMN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.