Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.3. DCF fair value of $10 implies 94% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedLive Nation Entertainment demonstrates a capital allocation challenge where the ROIC-WACC spread of -1.6% indicates value destruction relative to its cost of equity, despite an elevated DuPont ROE of 27.3%. This return is driven almost entirely by significant financial leverage, evidenced by an Equity Multiplier of 12.60x, rather than operational efficiency or margin expansion given the thin 2.0% net margin and modest asset turnover of 1.10x. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.55 suggests low earnings manipulation risk and the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects moderate financial strength, the Altman Z-Score of 2.3 places the firm in a borderline zone for potential distress, highlighting that current profitability is fragile under stress scenarios rather than indicative of durable competitive moats.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a sector-average multiple of 27.3x implies robust future growth expectations, yet the DCF model assigns a fair value significantly lower than current prices, resulting in an implied -93.3% downside. This massive discount suggests the market is not pricing in the extremely high 10-year free cash flow growth rate of 33.2%; instead, investors appear to be heavily penalizing the capital structure and margin compression risks embedded in the business model. The disconnect between the theoretical fair value derived from discounted cash flows and the prevailing multiple indicates that current valuation assumes a much slower realization of future earnings potential than currently priced into shares.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals mixed signals regarding alpha generation versus factor exposure. Although the firm has generated substantial Fama-French annualized alpha of 13.25%, this outperformance is accompanied by a negative Value Factor (HML) score of -0.088, suggesting returns are not driven by value characteristics but potentially growth or momentum dynamics that have yet to materialize into sustained profitability improvements. The robust Profitability Factor (RMW) score of 0.454 contrasts with the deteriorating capital efficiency metrics, creating a complex risk/reward profile where operational quality is recognized, but financial leverage remains a primary constraint on long-term value creation. Concurrent net insider selling totaling $156,581 over ninety days further underscores caution among management regarding near-term equity dynamics.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $13 | $9 | $7 |
| 3% | $15 | $10 | $8 |
| 4% | $17 | $12 | $9 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $167.64.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $10 (-93.8%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedLive Nation Entertainment's current price of $160.59 sits within a technical context where moving average crossovers often serve as key markers for institutional positioning shifts. When shorter-term averages intersect with longer-term trends, it frequently indicates that larger market participants are either accumulating or distributing shares based on their assessment of future valuation levels relative to historical ranges. The specific alignment of these lines suggests a period where established entities may be re-evaluating the stock's trajectory in relation to broader sector dynamics within Communication Services. Volume patterns accompanying price movements provide further insight into the conviction behind institutional activity. Sustained trading volume during upward or downward price adjustments typically signals that major players are actively engaging, potentially using liquidity to establish new positions or trim existing holdings without causing excessive market disruption. Conversely, declining volume alongside price stability might imply a pause in aggressive positioning by these larger groups as they await clearer directional catalysts before committing additional capital. The interplay between the current trading level and recent volatility often reveals where institutional sentiment is leaning toward caution or opportunity. Observers should note that significant gaps between support levels identified by moving averages and actual price action can highlight areas where large holders might find value in entering or exiting positions depending on their risk tolerance. Ultimately, these technical configurations reflect a snapshot of how sophisticated investors are structuring their exposure to the company amidst changing market conditions rather than dictating immediate directional moves for all participants.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLC or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell LYV shares regardless of Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to LYV through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with LYV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 26 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
LYV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 LYV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.7% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) and 1.5% of the VOX (VOX). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 31M shares (13.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest LYV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
LYV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. over the past year sits near $149.05 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $167.64 trades 12.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
LYV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. converts 15% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 85% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 143 | $168.46 | $24,089.78 |
| 2026-05-13 | 6,662 | $165.67 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-11 | 15,971 | $163.28 | $2.6M |
| 2026-05-08 | 762 | $165.75 | $126,301.5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 721 | $167.82 | $120,998.22 |
| 2026-05-06 | 46 | $157.26 | $7,233.96 |
| 2026-05-05 | 9,061 | $157.58 | $1.4M |
| 2026-05-04 | 10,000 | $158.25 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,030 | $153.13 | $157,723.9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 109 | $156.09 | $17,013.81 |
| 2026-04-20 | 305 | $156.56 | $47,750.8 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1,339 | $160.59 | $215,030.01 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $166.28 | $498.84 |
| 2026-04-14 | 82 | $165.72 | $13,589.04 |
| 2026-04-10 | 5,135 | $163.66 | $840,394.1 |
| 2026-04-09 | 7,520 | $163.56 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-08 | 694 | $158.29 | $109,853.26 |
| 2026-04-06 | 3,100 | $155.75 | $482,825 |
| 2026-04-02 | 20,101 | $152.63 | $3.1M |
| 2026-04-01 | 169,299 | $152.51 | $25.8M |
| 2026-03-31 | 612 | $148.69 | $90,998.28 |
| 2026-03-30 | 63,722 | $145.71 | $9.3M |
| 2026-03-27 | 97 | $150.05 | $14,554.85 |
| 2026-03-26 | 3,049 | $154.92 | $472,351.08 |
| 2026-03-25 | 15 | $152.70 | $2,290.5 |
| 2026-03-24 | 14,203 | $151.83 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-23 | 258 | $148.85 | $38,403.3 |
| 2026-03-20 | 558 | $154.19 | $86,038.02 |
| 2026-03-19 | 217 | $156.47 | $33,953.99 |
| 2026-03-18 | 717 | $155.82 | $111,722.94 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VRTPX | 0.409 | 0.331 | Moderate |
| BLK | 0.388 | 0.325 | Moderate |
| IRM | 0.381 | 0.433 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.370 | 0.360 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.361 | 0.366 | Moderate |
| LOW | 0.360 | 0.356 | Moderate |
| MLM | 0.357 | 0.348 | Moderate |
| MET | 0.344 | 0.291 | Moderate |
| BAC | 0.338 | 0.263 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare LYV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.