Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCARR trades at 42.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. DCF fair value of $55 implies 15% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedCarrier Global Corporation presents a fundamental profile characterized by capital destruction relative to its cost of equity, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -5.1%, which suggests the firm is currently eroding shareholder value through inefficient capital allocation despite generating a DuPont-adjusted ROE of 10.5%. This return on equity is primarily driven by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.63x) rather than operational efficiency, as asset turnover remains modest at 0.58x and revenue contracts 3.3% year-over-year. Quality metrics further underscore this structural weakness; a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates significant deterioration in financial health over the trailing period, while an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 flags proximity to the distress threshold, even as a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.58 offers some reassurance regarding earnings manipulation risks.
Valuation metrics reveal a market premium that appears misaligned with current operational realities and intrinsic value estimates. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 33.0x, slightly above the sector average of 32.1x, yet this multiple is not supported by the company's negative spread or declining revenue trajectory. A DCF analysis implies a fair value of $57 with only 1.8% upside from current levels, suggesting that the market may be pricing in an unrealistic long-term free cash flow growth rate of 14.8% annually given the recent contraction in top-line sales. The disconnect between the high valuation multiple and the negative ROIC-WACC spread indicates potential overvaluation unless a significant operational turnaround occurs to restore capital efficiency.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights substantial underperformance relative to standard factor benchmarks, with an annual Fama-French Alpha of -20.59% signaling persistent out-of-sample losses after adjusting for market, size, and value exposures. While the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers a robust 0.629 score due to strong gross margins at 25.9%, this is counterbalanced by a neutral Value Factor of -0.069 and zero insider flow over the last ninety days, which typically signals a lack of confidence from management during periods of financial stress. The combination of negative alpha, distressed Z-Score proximity, and capital destruction creates a high-risk environment where future returns depend heavily on whether operational leverage can be improved to reverse the current trend of value erosion.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $67 | $49 | $38 |
| 3% | $78 | $55 | $41 |
| 4% | $92 | $62 | $45 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $66.42.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $55 (-14.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 6% below its 5-year average P/E of 39.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical configuration for Carrier Global Corporation presents a mixed signal regarding institutional positioning. While the price action at $64.67 sits below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting that larger market participants may still view the asset as undervalued relative to its medium-to-long-term trends, this bearish alignment contrasts with specific momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index hovering near neutral levels indicates a lack of strong directional conviction from active traders, while the Money Flow Index approaching overbought territory amidst declining volume creates an ambiguous picture where institutions might be accumulating shares quietly despite broader weakness or potentially distributing into minor rallies without significant price impact. Volume trends further complicate the interpretation of institutional behavior. The divergence between rising momentum metrics and falling participation suggests that any recent upward pressure may not be supported by substantial capital inflows, a pattern often associated with retail-driven moves rather than deep-pocketed accumulation strategies. Conversely, the fact that price remains above the 50-day moving average while trading below the longer-term 200-day line could imply that sophisticated investors are holding positions in anticipation of a mean reversion or waiting for confirmation before committing fresh capital. This setup reflects a market where large players appear cautious, balancing potential entry points against the risk of further downside given the prevailing structural downtrend relative to key historical benchmarks.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-20 | $0.2400 | +6.7% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.2250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-21 | $0.2250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-02 | $0.2250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.2250 | +18.4% |
| 2024-10-25 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-21 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-02 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-20 | $0.1900 | +2.7% |
| 2023-10-26 | $0.1850 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-22 | $0.1850 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or VOE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CARR shares regardless of Carrier Global Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to CARR through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Carrier Global Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CARR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CARR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CARR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.9% of the VOE (VOE). Across 27 tracked ETFs, approximately 116M shares (13.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CARR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 27 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CARR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Carrier Global Corporation over the past year sits near $58.39 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $66.42 trades 13.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CARR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Carrier Global Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Carrier Global Corporation converts 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 47 | $66.83 | $3,141.01 |
| 2026-04-28 | 90 | $61.91 | $5,571.9 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1 | $61.71 | $61.71 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $64.66 | $387.96 |
| 2026-04-08 | 80 | $55.44 | $4,435.2 |
| 2026-04-07 | 200 | $55.59 | $11,118 |
| 2026-04-06 | 200 | $55.71 | $11,142 |
| 2026-03-31 | 296 | $54.36 | $16,090.56 |
| 2026-03-26 | 39,273 | $59.25 | $2.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 79 | $58.58 | $4,627.82 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,157 | $58.07 | $67,186.99 |
| 2026-03-19 | 3,536 | $57.61 | $203,708.96 |
| 2026-03-17 | 18,004 | $55.85 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-13 | 229 | $56.49 | $12,936.21 |
| 2026-03-12 | 2,513 | $58.69 | $147,487.97 |
| 2026-03-06 | 726 | $60.40 | $43,850.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 16,739 | $63.84 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-19 | 310 | $64.33 | $19,942.3 |
| 2026-02-17 | 46 | $65.40 | $3,008.4 |
| 2026-02-10 | 42 | $65.32 | $2,743.44 |
| 2026-02-09 | 15,800 | $63.92 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-03 | 52,747 | $60.36 | $3.2M |
| 2026-01-30 | 4,072 | $59.79 | $243,464.88 |
| 2026-01-27 | 33 | $57.37 | $1,893.21 |
| 2026-01-20 | 12,727 | $56.19 | $715,130.13 |
| 2025-12-29 | 17 | $53.59 | $911.03 |
| 2025-12-24 | 771 | $53.34 | $41,125.14 |
| 2025-12-18 | 196 | $52.40 | $10,270.4 |
| 2025-12-08 | 39,258 | $54.29 | $2.1M |
| 2025-12-05 | 39,629 | $54.50 | $2.2M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LII | 0.696 | 0.744 | Moderate |
| TT | 0.594 | 0.641 | Moderate |
| JCI | 0.574 | 0.501 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.557 | 0.618 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.548 | 0.552 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.540 | 0.555 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.529 | 0.545 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.528 | 0.589 | Moderate |
| UPS | 0.522 | 0.463 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CARR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.