Medtronic plc (MDT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.6x earnings — a 68% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — MDT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.8. DCF fair value of $38 implies 56% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedMedtronic's capital allocation efficiency presents a structural deficit, evidenced by an ROIC of 6.4% that trails its WACC of 8.4%, resulting in a negative spread of -2.0%. While the DuPont decomposition reveals strong operational leverage via a robust 13.9% net margin and high equity utilization at 1.90x, these strengths are insufficient to offset low asset turnover of only 0.37x. The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates moderate financial health with recent stability in profitability or operations, yet the Altman Z-Score of 2.8 and negative Beneish M-Score of -2.58 suggest potential earnings management concerns alongside a zone approaching distress thresholds. This combination implies that while margins remain resilient, the underlying asset generation capability is failing to create value relative to the cost of capital.
Valuation metrics currently reflect significant downside pressure compared to intrinsic estimates derived from discounted cash flow models. Trading at 24.2x forward earnings, the stock commands a premium above its historical trajectory and trades meaningfully below the sector average of 30.8x, creating an apparent valuation compression rather than expansion. The DCF analysis places fair value at $40, implying current prices incorporate pessimistic long-term expectations with only 6.9% implied free cash flow growth over a decade. This disconnect suggests the market is pricing in stagnation despite the company's ability to maintain high gross margins of 65.3%, as the negative ROIC-WACC spread undermines confidence in future compounding capabilities.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators further highlight structural headwinds for equity holders seeking alpha generation. The annual Fama-French Alpha stands at -7.13%, indicating consistent underperformance relative to a risk-free benchmark, while factor analysis reveals a divergence between the stock's value tilt (HML: 0.214) and its weak profitability signal (RMW: -0.325). Compounding these fundamental metrics is substantial insider activity, with $5.1 million in net selling over the last ninety days, which often signals management caution regarding near-term prospects or liquidity needs. Collectively, these data points paint a picture of a mature healthcare giant struggling to translate high margins into efficient capital returns amid active shareholder skepticism and negative risk premiums.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $53 | $32 | $20 |
| 3% | $69 | $38 | $24 |
| 4% | $99 | $48 | $28 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $73.75.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $38 (-56.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 3% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMedtronic plc is currently trading at $87.21 within the healthcare sector, presenting a technical snapshot where price action sits in a defined range without immediate directional breakout signals. The current valuation level suggests a market equilibrium that has absorbed recent fundamental pressures common to the broader medical device industry, yet it lacks the explosive volatility often associated with structural momentum shifts. Instead of aggressive expansion or contraction, the price trajectory reflects a consolidation phase where buyer and seller aggression are roughly balanced at this specific entry point. The drawdown characteristics from prior peaks appear muted relative to the sector's historical beta, indicating that downside risk may be contained by underlying support levels rather than driven by fundamental deterioration alone. However, the absence of significant volume spikes accompanying price movements implies that any potential reversal or continuation lacks strong institutional conviction at this moment. This fragility in momentum suggests that current trends are more susceptible to external macroeconomic noise or sector-specific regulatory headlines rather than being anchored in deep-value re-rating logic. Consequently, the technical setup portrays a state of suspended animation where risk dynamics are dictated by waiting for a catalyst to break the current equilibrium. The market is effectively pricing in stability while remaining hypersensitive to any deviation from the $87.21 anchor point. Until volatility expands or fundamental narratives shift decisively, the asset's path remains ambiguous, offering neither clear evidence of sustainable growth nor definitive signs of capitulation.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-26 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-26 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-27 | $0.7100 | +1.4% |
| 2025-03-28 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-27 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.7000 | +1.4% |
| 2024-03-21 | $0.6900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-19 | $0.6900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-21 | $0.6900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-22 | $0.6900 | +1.5% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IHI or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MDT shares regardless of Medtronic plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to MDT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Medtronic plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Medtronic plc (MDT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Abbott Laboratories (ABT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MDT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MDT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 MDT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Medtronic plc (MDT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.6% of the IHI (IHI) and 1.9% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 23 tracked ETFs, approximately 140M shares (10.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MDT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 23 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MDT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Medtronic plc over the past year sits near $87.02 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $73.75 sits 15.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MDT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Medtronic plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Medtronic plc converts 56% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 13 | $82.00 | $1,066 |
| 2026-04-15 | 9 | $88.12 | $793.08 |
| 2026-04-10 | 10,506 | $87.91 | $923,582.46 |
| 2026-03-31 | 482 | $85.74 | $41,326.68 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1 | $87.14 | $87.14 |
| 2026-03-27 | 4,344 | $87.67 | $380,838.48 |
| 2026-03-25 | 128 | $86.58 | $11,082.24 |
| 2026-03-24 | 344 | $87.17 | $29,986.48 |
| 2026-03-23 | 60,847 | $86.16 | $5.2M |
| 2026-03-09 | 1,579 | $90.90 | $143,531.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | 46,186 | $93.01 | $4.3M |
| 2026-03-04 | 351 | $96.71 | $33,945.21 |
| 2026-02-26 | 15,180 | $96.65 | $1.5M |
| 2026-02-25 | 1,167 | $96.75 | $112,907.25 |
| 2026-02-20 | 8,937 | $97.58 | $872,072.46 |
| 2026-02-13 | 225,398 | $100.88 | $22.7M |
| 2026-01-29 | 50,689 | $100.79 | $5.1M |
| 2026-01-26 | 200 | $100.88 | $20,176 |
| 2026-01-21 | 41,004 | $98.60 | $4.0M |
| 2026-01-20 | 200 | $96.76 | $19,352 |
| 2026-01-16 | 6,410 | $99.00 | $634,590 |
| 2026-01-15 | 4,733 | $98.74 | $467,336.42 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2,108 | $96.42 | $203,253.36 |
| 2026-01-13 | 6,483 | $96.95 | $628,526.85 |
| 2026-01-12 | 678 | $97.53 | $66,125.34 |
| 2026-01-08 | 6,562 | $99.77 | $654,690.74 |
| 2025-12-22 | 4 | $98.63 | $394.52 |
| 2025-12-17 | 200 | $97.72 | $19,544 |
| 2025-12-12 | 3 | $99.75 | $299.25 |
| 2025-12-09 | 4,852 | $101.26 | $491,313.52 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SYK | 0.513 | 0.500 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.462 | 0.328 | Moderate |
| BDX | 0.454 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.442 | 0.518 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.436 | 0.349 | Moderate |
| A | 0.409 | 0.322 | Moderate |
| TMO | 0.408 | 0.362 | Moderate |
| ZBH | 0.389 | 0.279 | Moderate |
| ECL | 0.388 | 0.378 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MDT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.