Natera, Inc. (NTRA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 23.4. DCF fair value of $27 implies 87% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of 0.48 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Natera reveal a stark divergence between aggressive top-line expansion and deteriorating capital efficiency. While revenue growth remains robust at 35.9% year-over-year, supported by healthy gross margins near 64.8%, the company is currently generating negative returns on invested capital (-10.7%) and equity (-12.2%). This poor profitability stems primarily from a -9.0% net margin rather than low asset turnover or excessive leverage, as indicated by the DuPont decomposition. Financial distress signals are further amplified by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and significant insider selling totaling over $123 million in the last ninety days, suggesting management may be concerned about near-term liquidity or valuation despite strong top-line momentum.
Valuation metrics present a substantial disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from discounted cash flow analysis. The stock trades at an implied discount of 86.9% relative to its DCF fair value estimate of $26, which assumes a ten-year free cash flow growth rate of nearly 47.9%. This aggressive growth assumption appears inconsistent with the company's current negative net margins and weak profitability factor score (RMW: -1.203), raising questions about whether the market is pricing in unsustainable expansion or if the DCF inputs reflect overly optimistic terminal conditions compared to sector peers averaging a P/E of 36.8x.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights significant exposure to growth and momentum factors rather than value or profitability characteristics, with a pronounced tilt toward high-growth securities (Value Factor: -0.411) and poor relative profitability standing out against the broader factor universe. Although the Fama-French alpha stands at an anomalous 42.17% annually, this metric must be viewed in the context of negative earnings and heavy insider distribution, which often precede downside volatility or strategic pivots rather than sustained compounding returns for long-term holders.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 36% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $31 | $25 | $21 |
| 3% | $35 | $27 | $22 |
| 4% | $41 | $30 | $24 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $212.73.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $27 (-86.7%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ARKG or IBB, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NTRA shares regardless of Natera, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to NTRA through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Natera, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Natera, Inc. (NTRA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG (CRSP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with NTRA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NTRA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 NTRA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.3% of the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) and 2.5% of the IBB (IBB). Across 14 tracked ETFs, approximately 12M shares (8.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest NTRA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NTRA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Natera, Inc. over the past year sits near $197.20 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $212.73 trades 7.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 571 | $201.14 | $114,850.94 |
| 2026-04-21 | 516 | $207.74 | $107,193.84 |
| 2026-04-17 | 967 | $196.11 | $189,638.37 |
| 2026-04-15 | 622 | $214.64 | $133,506.08 |
| 2026-04-08 | 188 | $209.27 | $39,342.76 |
| 2026-04-06 | 21 | $207.98 | $4,367.58 |
| 2026-03-31 | 83,324 | $186.84 | $15.6M |
| 2026-03-24 | 6 | $200.09 | $1,200.54 |
| 2026-03-11 | 834 | $198.95 | $165,924.3 |
| 2026-03-02 | 7,751 | $208.04 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-10 | 12 | $210.58 | $2,526.96 |
| 2026-01-29 | 3 | $235.93 | $707.79 |
| 2026-01-21 | 86 | $234.85 | $20,197.1 |
| 2026-01-15 | 53 | $239.19 | $12,677.07 |
| 2026-01-12 | 1,238 | $234.31 | $290,075.78 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,287 | $239.56 | $308,313.72 |
| 2026-01-08 | 1,154 | $254.40 | $293,577.6 |
| 2026-01-06 | 7,421 | $237.42 | $1.8M |
| 2025-12-31 | 7,408 | $229.98 | $1.7M |
| 2025-12-29 | 1 | $233.74 | $233.74 |
| 2025-12-24 | 35,188 | $235.40 | $8.3M |
| 2025-12-23 | 3,326 | $235.57 | $783,505.82 |
| 2025-12-22 | 43,790 | $231.96 | $10.2M |
| 2025-12-19 | 507 | $224.74 | $113,943.18 |
| 2025-12-18 | 487 | $225.49 | $109,813.63 |
| 2025-12-10 | 3 | $235.53 | $706.59 |
| 2025-12-04 | 25 | $238.21 | $5,955.25 |
| 2025-11-25 | 26,264 | $238.58 | $6.3M |
| 2025-11-24 | 5,708 | $230.63 | $1.3M |
| 2025-11-21 | 12,514 | $225.55 | $2.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GH | 0.481 | 0.487 | Moderate |
| VCYT | 0.461 | 0.463 | Moderate |
| PSNL | 0.435 | 0.451 | Moderate |
| TEM | 0.432 | 0.505 | Moderate |
| ADPT | 0.420 | 0.469 | Moderate |
| CDNA | 0.413 | 0.468 | Moderate |
| PACB | 0.408 | 0.509 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.402 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.400 | 0.408 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NTRA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.