OC (OC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBelow-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. DCF fair value of $41 implies 65% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this enterprise reveal significant distress, characterized by a negative ROIC-WACC spread and an ROE of -13.4% driven primarily by a contraction in net margins to -5.2%. While the gross margin remains robust at 28.1%, indicating potential pricing power or cost advantages in production, these benefits are entirely offset by operating inefficiencies that result in negative bottom-line earnings despite modest revenue growth of 2.6%. The DuPont decomposition highlights that asset turnover sits at a neutral 0.78x while equity leverage amplifies losses to 3.33x; this structural weakness is corroborated by a deteriorating Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, signaling declining financial health. Although the Beneish M-Score of -3.52 suggests low manipulation risk, it does not mitigate the underlying operational inability to generate positive returns on capital employed.
Valuation metrics reflect this fundamental deterioration, with current pricing implying a substantial discount relative to intrinsic value models. The DCF analysis places fair value at $42, suggesting the market is currently pricing in an implied free cash flow growth rate of only 7% over the next decade—a figure that appears inconsistent with the company's negative net income and weak ROIC profile. Consequently, current shares trade approximately 61.6% below this calculated fair value estimate. This wide disparity indicates that while the market may be anticipating a turnaround or restructuring, the immediate earnings trajectory does not support such optimism without significant operational leverage improvements to reverse the margin compression observed in recent periods.
Insider activity over the last ninety days remains neutral with zero net flow, offering no clear directional signal regarding management's confidence in near-term prospects. The convergence of negative returns on invested capital and a low Piotroski score presents a high-risk environment where even modest valuation discounts may not adequately compensate for the probability of further earnings degradation or balance sheet stress until margin recovery is demonstrated.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $56 | $35 | $22 |
| 3% | $69 | $41 | $26 |
| 4% | $89 | $50 | $31 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $120.41.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $41 (-65.1%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-05 | $0.7900 | +14.5% |
| 2025-10-20 | $0.6900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-21 | $0.6900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.6900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-06 | $0.6900 | +15.0% |
| 2024-10-18 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-15 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-05 | $0.6000 | +15.4% |
| 2023-10-13 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-14 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OC shares regardless of OC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $763M of passive capital is structurally linked to OC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on OC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in OC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If OC (OC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TOLL BROTHERS INC (TOL) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with OC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 17 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
OC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 OC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
OC (OC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.6% of the MDYV (MDYV). Across 17 tracked ETFs, approximately 7M shares (8.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest OC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 17 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
OC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for OC over the past year sits near $121.72 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $120.41 sits 1.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
OC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does OC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
OC converts 91% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-7.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 3,008 | $121.67 | $365,983.36 |
| 2026-04-28 | 386 | $125.52 | $48,450.72 |
| 2026-04-24 | 553 | $125.66 | $69,489.98 |
| 2026-04-20 | 21,834 | $122.84 | $2.7M |
| 2026-04-01 | 155 | $108.22 | $16,774.1 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,835 | $107.97 | $198,124.95 |
| 2026-03-23 | 157 | $99.96 | $15,693.72 |
| 2026-03-17 | 17 | $107.90 | $1,834.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | 100 | $107.25 | $10,725 |
| 2026-02-27 | 39,145 | $122.28 | $4.8M |
| 2026-02-25 | 1,111 | $126.63 | $140,685.93 |
| 2026-02-23 | 20 | $132.71 | $2,654.2 |
| 2026-01-29 | 915 | $120.57 | $110,321.55 |
| 2026-01-23 | 6,141 | $125.34 | $769,712.94 |
| 2026-01-21 | 52,240 | $120.89 | $6.3M |
| 2025-12-31 | 4 | $113.15 | $452.6 |
| 2025-12-22 | 92 | $114.54 | $10,537.68 |
| 2025-12-19 | 48 | $116.58 | $5,595.84 |
| 2025-12-04 | 2,051 | $114.12 | $234,060.12 |
| 2025-12-01 | 59 | $113.24 | $6,681.16 |
| 2025-11-25 | 1,238 | $105.05 | $130,051.9 |
| 2025-11-19 | 137 | $99.05 | $13,569.85 |
| 2025-11-13 | 967 | $103.08 | $99,678.36 |
| 2025-11-05 | 12,356 | $122.72 | $1.5M |
| 2025-10-24 | 24,865 | $128.63 | $3.2M |
| 2025-10-23 | 1,078 | $126.98 | $136,884.44 |
| 2025-10-14 | 4,107 | $125.33 | $514,730.31 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BLDR | 0.717 | 0.705 | High co-movement |
| MAS | 0.706 | 0.694 | High co-movement |
| ITW | 0.691 | 0.615 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.670 | 0.642 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.663 | 0.661 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.653 | 0.608 | Moderate |
| KBH | 0.650 | 0.647 | Moderate |
| TMHC | 0.648 | 0.662 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.647 | 0.653 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare OC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.