Pool Corporation (POOL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.7x earnings — a 63% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — POOL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.5. DCF fair value of $78 implies 64% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits a robust fundamental profile characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of +5.3%, indicating efficient capital allocation relative to its cost of equity, though this is underpinned by moderate leverage rather than operational efficiency alone. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 34.3% ROE is driven primarily by significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 3.06x) and high asset turnover (1.46x), while net margins remain compressed at 7.7%. Credit quality appears stable with an Altman Z-Score of 4.4, yet earnings stability concerns are flagged by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 amidst flat revenue growth (-0.4% YoY). Additionally, the Beneish M-Score of -2.41 suggests low probability of financial manipulation, reinforcing the reliability of reported profitability despite the lack of top-line expansion.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at 19.8x earnings, the stock is significantly discounted relative to its sector average of 45.2x, yet this compression aligns with a DCF fair value estimate that implies -61% downside from current levels based on assumed long-term FCF growth of 14.2%. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in persistent headwinds or skepticism regarding future margin expansion despite the company's strong profitability factor (RMW) alpha of 0.799. The negative value factor exposure (-0.287 HML) further indicates that current pricing reflects a growth tilt inconsistent with its discounted valuation multiple, creating an ambiguous risk/reward profile where high quality is not being rewarded at fair value multiples.
Risk factors are highlighted by a substantial Fama-French alpha of -51.32% annually and the absence of revenue growth, which contradicts the implied 14.2% organic expansion used in valuation models. However, insider activity over the last 90 days shows $2.9 million in net buying, potentially signaling management confidence in near-term catalysts or a belief that current valuations undervalue future cash flows. The interplay between deteriorating growth metrics and strong profitability suggests the stock may be undergoing a re-rating based on operational resilience rather than top-line acceleration, leaving investors to weigh whether the deep discount compensates for the lack of revenue momentum and historical underperformance relative to factor benchmarks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.4% | 11.4% | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $96 | $69 | $52 |
| 3% | $111 | $78 | $57 |
| 4% | $131 | $88 | $63 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $179.60.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $78 (-64.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 16% below its 5-year average P/E of 23.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPool Corporation's stock is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a recent downturn in price action. The current RSI reading of 29.7 suggests the stock may be experiencing weak momentum or oversold conditions based on short-term price changes.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | $1.3000 | +4.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-14 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $1.2500 | +4.2% |
| 2025-03-12 | $1.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | $1.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $1.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $1.2000 | +9.1% |
| 2024-03-13 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-07 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-09 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VFQY or RSP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell POOL shares regardless of Pool Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $912M of passive capital is structurally linked to POOL through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on POOL's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Pool Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Pool Corporation (POOL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with POOL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 26 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
POOL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 POOL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Pool Corporation (POOL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.2% of the VFQY (VFQY) and 0.2% of the RSP (RSP). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (12.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest POOL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
POOL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Pool Corporation over the past year sits near $236.18 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $179.60 sits 24.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
POOL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Pool Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Pool Corporation converts 49% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 51% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 10,975 | $182.33 | $2.0M |
| 2026-05-08 | 216 | $190.44 | $41,135.04 |
| 2026-05-07 | 720 | $188.09 | $135,424.8 |
| 2026-05-05 | 13 | $203.23 | $2,641.99 |
| 2026-05-04 | 113 | $208.09 | $23,514.17 |
| 2026-04-27 | 80 | $232.55 | $18,604 |
| 2026-04-20 | 331 | $227.62 | $75,342.22 |
| 2026-03-25 | 3 | $203.24 | $609.72 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1,632 | $208.78 | $340,728.96 |
| 2026-03-13 | 19,330 | $204.12 | $3.9M |
| 2026-03-12 | 2,808 | $210.88 | $592,151.04 |
| 2026-03-10 | 162 | $214.52 | $34,752.24 |
| 2026-02-27 | 12,886 | $223.31 | $2.9M |
| 2026-02-25 | 477 | $217.26 | $103,633.02 |
| 2026-02-23 | 120 | $221.62 | $26,594.4 |
| 2026-02-20 | 11,733 | $218.36 | $2.6M |
| 2026-02-04 | 84 | $252.95 | $21,247.8 |
| 2026-02-03 | 46 | $253.60 | $11,665.6 |
| 2026-02-02 | 10 | $254.09 | $2,540.9 |
| 2026-01-23 | 508 | $266.82 | $135,544.56 |
| 2026-01-21 | 39,257 | $260.69 | $10.2M |
| 2026-01-20 | 100 | $267.99 | $26,799 |
| 2026-01-15 | 5 | $265.34 | $1,326.7 |
| 2026-01-14 | 6 | $261.98 | $1,571.88 |
| 2026-01-08 | 842 | $237.01 | $199,562.42 |
| 2025-12-22 | 4,662 | $232.01 | $1.1M |
| 2025-12-01 | 288 | $243.60 | $70,156.8 |
| 2025-11-19 | 70 | $240.24 | $16,816.8 |
| 2025-11-17 | 253 | $242.32 | $61,306.96 |
| 2025-11-14 | 3 | $245.93 | $737.79 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MAS | 0.633 | 0.548 | Moderate |
| LEN | 0.632 | 0.568 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.626 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.617 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| BLDR | 0.614 | 0.569 | Moderate |
| DHI | 0.609 | 0.581 | Moderate |
| KBH | 0.609 | 0.532 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.581 | 0.504 | Moderate |
| NVR | 0.580 | 0.488 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare POOL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.