Financial Services / Banks - Regional

Regions Financial Corporation (RF)

$28.03
+2.52%
$23.9B
Market Cap
11.6
P/E Ratio
1.03
Beta
3.79%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 0.2 Distress

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

At 11.6x earnings — a 40% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — RF is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.2. DCF fair value of $34 implies 22% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive
Market Price
$28.03
Fair Value
$35
Implied Upside
+23.4%
$35IMPLIED FAIR VALUEUNDERVALUEDOVERUNDER
Growth Rate (Y1–5)2%
-10%20%50%
Discount Rate (WACC)10.2%
5%12.5%20%

5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.

Reverse DCFMarket-Implied
-4.1%annual FCF growth priced in at $28.03

The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8.2%10.2%12.2%
2%$39$32$27
3%$44$34$28
4%$51$37$30

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $28.03.

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $34 (+22.4%). Not investment advice.

Valuation Context

11.6x
RF P/E
19.2x
Sector Avg
9.9x
5Y Avg P/E
-40%
vs Sector

Currently trading 21% above its 5-year average P/E of 9.9x.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Technical Setup

AI Generated

Regional FirstBank (RF) is trading below its 50-day moving average but slightly above the 200-day, indicating a short-term downtrend with some underlying support from longer-term buyers. The RSI at 28 suggests that the stock might be in oversold territory, potentially setting up for an upward correction if recent selling pressure eases.

RSI (14)
SMA 50
SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
0.2
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

28.6%
Net Margin
10.2%
WACC
+6.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+13.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2B
Free Cash Flow
47%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

28.6%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.05x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
8.31x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
11.3%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

7.31x
Debt / Equity
12.67%
FCF Yield

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$1M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
1
Sale Transactions
2026-01-22RITTER WILLIAM DSold 2/8 qtrsSale$1M
2026-01-02ZUSI RUSSELL KOther69,911 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.51
Act: $0.54
+6.2%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.56
Act: $0.60
+7.5%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.60
Act: $0.63
+5.8%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $0.61
Act: $0.57
-6.8%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.2650
Latest Dividend
$1.03
2025 Total
+5.1%
YoY Growth
9 yrs
Consecutive Increases
Annual Dividends per Share
$0.13
2016
$0.32
2017
$0.46
2018
$0.59
2019
$0.62
2020
$0.65
2021
$0.74
2022
$0.88
2023
$0.98
2024
$1.03
2025
$0.53
2026
DateAmountChange
2026-06-01$0.26500.0%
2026-03-02$0.26500.0%
2025-12-01$0.26500.0%
2025-09-02$0.2650+6.0%
2025-06-02$0.25000.0%
2025-03-03$0.25000.0%
2024-12-02$0.25000.0%
2024-09-03$0.2500+4.2%
2024-06-03$0.24000.0%
2024-02-29$0.24000.0%
2023-12-07$0.24000.0%
2023-08-31$0.2400+20.0%
Stock Splits
2004-07-01: 1.2346:11997-06-16: 2:11993-03-01: 1.1:11986-06-02: 2:11984-06-04: 2:1

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

29.5%
Annual Volatility
1.38
Sharpe (1Y)
-18.4%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.

1.31
Market β
Mkt-RF
+0.414
Size (SMB)
Small-cap tilt
+1.198
Value (HML)
Value tilt
-0.062
Profit (RMW)
Neutral
+0.151
Invest (CMA)
Conservative
Alpha (annual): -6.29%
R²: 75.4%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Fundamentals

9.8
Forward P/E
1.62
PEG Ratio
1.37
Price/Book
12M
Avg Volume
$31.53
52W High
$20.79
52W Low
67%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$4.8B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding RF
0.08%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$6.4T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like DVY or KRE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell RF shares regardless of Regions Financial Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to RF through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in Regions Financial Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

RF Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
RFEpicenterVTIETFVOOETFIVVETFMOLow RiskVZHigh RiskLMTLow RiskCVXLow RiskMRKLow Risk
RF Price Drop (%)0

If Regions Financial Corporation (RF) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Altria Group Inc (MO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with RF. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

RF Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 RF shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
RF
Total Shares
853M
ETF Lock-Up
20.4%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
20.4%Locked Float

Regions Financial Corporation (RF) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.6% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) and 1.5% of the KRE (KRE). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 174M shares (20.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.

Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

RF Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
RF
PRICE
$28.03
FLOOR (POC)
$23.77
STRENGTH
High
$20$21$22$22$23$23$24POC 17%$248%$258%$2510%$269%$2710%$27$289%$287%$28.03$29$29$30$30$31
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for Regions Financial Corporation over the past year sits near $23.77 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $28.03 trades 17.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-1310,207$27.15$277,120.05
2026-05-063,777$28.04$105,907.08
2026-05-05647$27.66$17,896.02
2026-05-04874$28.19$24,638.06
2026-04-3046,448$28.01$1.3M
2026-04-285,878$28.26$166,112.28
2026-04-23893$28.21$25,191.53
2026-04-22275$28.35$7,796.25
2026-04-201,038$28.13$29,198.94
2026-04-171,464$27.92$40,874.88
2026-04-16411$27.85$11,446.35
2026-04-159$27.75$249.75
2026-04-142,578$27.83$71,745.74
2026-04-091,144$27.47$31,425.68
2026-04-081,945$26.61$51,756.45
2026-04-071,322$26.74$35,350.28
2026-03-31380$25.24$9,591.2
2026-03-2587$25.64$2,230.68
2026-03-13344$25.32$8,710.08
2026-03-0911$27.04$297.44
2026-03-063,968$27.74$110,072.32
2026-03-051,545$27.83$42,997.35
2026-02-262,024$29.00$58,696
2026-02-2339,927$30.06$1.2M
2026-02-191,536$30.06$46,172.16
2026-02-13192$29.78$5,717.76
2026-02-115$30.82$154.1
2026-02-1065,072$30.76$2.0M
2026-02-061,456$30.50$44,408
2026-02-05203$30.44$6,179.32

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
KEY0.8980.907High co-movement
FITB0.8890.891High co-movement
MTB0.8820.901High co-movement
CFG0.8810.896High co-movement
FNB0.8730.886High co-movement
TFC0.8690.895High co-movement
HBAN0.8620.874High co-movement
ZION0.8550.863High co-movement
ASB0.8490.859High co-movement

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare RF to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.