Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.3x earnings — a 31% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — ABCB is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 0.3. DCF fair value of $123 implies 47% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $149 | $111 | $88 |
| 3% | $173 | $123 | $95 |
| 4% | $211 | $139 | $104 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $84.63.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $123 (+47.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 52% above its 5-year average P/E of 9.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmeris Bancorp is currently trading at $84.69 within the Financial Services sector, presenting a snapshot where price action and volume dynamics may reflect shifting institutional positioning. The proximity of recent Simple Moving Average crossovers suggests that larger market participants are actively recalibrating their exposure to this financial intermediary asset class. Such technical alignments often precede periods where institutions either accumulate shares anticipating further upside or begin distributing positions if the trajectory appears overextended relative to historical valuations. Volume trends in conjunction with current price levels can indicate whether institutional interest is driving momentum through genuine conviction or merely reacting to short-term volatility. If volume spikes coincide with upward moves, it may signal that sophisticated traders are entering or adding to long holdings, viewing the asset as a core component of their portfolio despite broader sector headwinds. Conversely, rising volume on declining prices could imply active selling by entities seeking to lock in gains or reduce risk exposure ahead of potential market corrections. The interplay between these technical indicators and the current valuation offers insight into how capital flows are being directed within the regional banking sub-sector. Observers might interpret the convergence of moving averages as a signal that institutional sentiment is transitioning, potentially leading to increased liquidity or volatility as large players adjust their strategic allocations based on evolving macroeconomic expectations for financial services firms like Ameris Bancorp.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.2000 | +33.3% |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ABCB shares regardless of Ameris Bancorp's individual fundamentals. We estimate $425M of passive capital is structurally linked to ABCB through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ABCB's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ameris Bancorp to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CO (AUB) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 4 ETFs with ABCB. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ABCB Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 ABCB shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.0% of the KBE (KBE). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (8.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ABCB Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ABCB Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ameris Bancorp over the past year sits near $74.23 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $84.63 trades 14.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 3,296 | $84.03 | $276,962.88 |
| 2026-04-23 | 43 | $83.85 | $3,605.55 |
| 2026-04-22 | 43 | $84.45 | $3,631.35 |
| 2026-04-21 | 43 | $85.43 | $3,673.49 |
| 2026-04-20 | 43 | $85.28 | $3,667.04 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,883 | $82.86 | $156,025.38 |
| 2026-04-06 | 23 | $78.40 | $1,803.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2 | $74.49 | $148.98 |
| 2026-03-04 | 1,651 | $79.34 | $130,990.34 |
| 2026-03-03 | 12,145 | $79.32 | $963,341.4 |
| 2026-02-27 | 4,570 | $82.55 | $377,253.5 |
| 2026-02-24 | 100 | $79.72 | $7,972 |
| 2026-02-20 | 7,887 | $82.93 | $654,068.91 |
| 2026-02-19 | 6 | $83.19 | $499.14 |
| 2026-02-17 | 553 | $84.02 | $46,463.06 |
| 2026-02-11 | 75 | $84.76 | $6,357 |
| 2026-02-05 | 10 | $84.15 | $841.5 |
| 2026-01-23 | 59 | $82.77 | $4,883.43 |
| 2026-01-22 | 130,686 | $82.07 | $10.7M |
| 2026-01-02 | 10,602 | $74.27 | $787,410.54 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| HWC | 0.861 | 0.873 | High co-movement |
| AUB | 0.855 | 0.861 | High co-movement |
| ASB | 0.853 | 0.877 | High co-movement |
| ONB | 0.850 | 0.877 | High co-movement |
| SSB | 0.847 | 0.854 | High co-movement |
| FULT | 0.842 | 0.875 | High co-movement |
| WTFC | 0.841 | 0.868 | High co-movement |
| FNB | 0.839 | 0.861 | High co-movement |
| UMBF | 0.836 | 0.852 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ABCB to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.