American Tower Corporation (AMT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 30.1x earnings — a 36% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — AMT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.2. DCF fair value of $282 implies 56% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency presents a notable divergence from the earnings generation mechanics. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that equity returns are primarily driven by significant financial leverage (6.10x multiplier) rather than operational margin expansion or asset turnover, the underlying profitability remains robust with a 23.8% net margin and 74.2% gross margin. This high-margin structure supports a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, indicating moderate fundamental strength, yet this is counterbalanced by an Altman Z-Score of 1.2 which signals elevated distress risk relative to the sector norm. Crucially, the return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.2% falls below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.6%, resulting in a negative spread that suggests current operations are destroying value despite the impressive bottom-line margins.
Valuation metrics depict a market premium relative to historical norms but remain discounted against intrinsic valuations derived from cash flow assumptions. The current P/E ratio of 32.2x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 41.4x, yet it implies forward growth expectations that may not align with the realized trajectory if operational efficiency does not improve. A DCF model incorporating an implied free cash flow growth rate of 9.5% over ten years assigns a fair value significantly higher than current trading levels, suggesting potential upside based on discounted cash flow logic. However, these optimistic fundamentals are tempered by negative risk factors that challenge the sustainability of such valuations in a stress scenario.
Risk-adjusted performance data indicates underperformance relative to standard asset class benchmarks and concerning insider activity patterns. The stock exhibits an annual Fama-French alpha of -7.50%, reflecting consistent underperformance against factor models, while profitability factor exposure remains neutral at -0.088. Furthermore, the Beneish M-Score of -2.56 suggests earnings quality is likely transparent, yet this is overshadowed by a net insider selling flow exceeding $21 million over the last 90 days. These data points collectively highlight a tension between attractive intrinsic value metrics and deteriorating risk indicators regarding capital preservation and management sentiment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $379 | $237 | $161 |
| 3% | $487 | $282 | $185 |
| 4% | $677 | $348 | $216 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $185.53.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $282 (+56.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 8% below its 5-year average P/E of 36.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmerican Tower Corporation is currently trading at $170.63, presenting a scenario where the immediate assessment of momentum relies heavily on its relationship with key moving averages and the Relative Strength Index. Without specific values for these indicators provided in the data set, the analysis remains descriptive rather than prescriptive regarding directional bias. If historical price action places the current level above established moving averages, it would technically suggest an uptrend is intact, whereas a position below them might indicate bearish pressure or consolidation. The RSI serves as a gauge for short-term velocity; values hovering near overbought thresholds could imply potential exhaustion in upward momentum, while readings approaching oversold levels might signal a floor where buyers have historically stepped in. The sector context of Real Estate adds another layer to interpreting these technical signals, as macroeconomic factors often influence how well price holds against moving averages during broader market shifts. Observers should note that the current price point does not inherently dictate future performance without corroborating data on volume profiles and volatility indices. Technical setups are dynamic constructs where the interplay between trend lines and momentum oscillators must be weighed carefully to understand whether the asset is in a phase of accumulation, distribution, or neutral drift. Ultimately, the synthesis of these elements offers a snapshot of market structure rather than a forecasted outcome, requiring further validation against broader economic trends before any strategic conclusions can be drawn about the stock's trajectory.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | $1.7900 | +5.3% |
| 2025-12-29 | $1.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $1.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-11 | $1.7000 | +4.9% |
| 2024-12-27 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-09 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-11 | $1.6200 | -4.7% |
| 2023-12-27 | $1.7000 | +4.9% |
| 2023-10-10 | $1.6200 | +3.2% |
| 2023-06-15 | $1.5700 | +0.6% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or SCHH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AMT shares regardless of American Tower Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $12.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to AMT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in American Tower Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If American Tower Corporation (AMT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AMT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AMT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 AMT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
American Tower Corporation (AMT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.9% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 4.5% of the Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 78M shares (16.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AMT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AMT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for American Tower Corporation over the past year sits near $179.69 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $185.53 trades 3.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AMT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does American Tower Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
American Tower Corporation converts 59% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 14,432 | $176.53 | $2.5M |
| 2026-05-08 | 732 | $179.77 | $131,591.64 |
| 2026-05-04 | 36 | $181.61 | $6,537.96 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,371 | $179.01 | $245,422.71 |
| 2026-04-22 | 496 | $174.76 | $86,680.96 |
| 2026-04-21 | 718 | $181.66 | $130,431.88 |
| 2026-04-20 | 103 | $182.36 | $18,783.08 |
| 2026-04-16 | 347 | $176.99 | $61,415.53 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $176.41 | $529.23 |
| 2026-04-13 | 640 | $179.29 | $114,745.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | 10,000 | $179.93 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-09 | 2,309 | $176.18 | $406,799.62 |
| 2026-04-07 | 300 | $176.14 | $52,842 |
| 2026-04-06 | 130 | $173.73 | $22,584.9 |
| 2026-04-02 | 3,075 | $171.02 | $525,886.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | 4,803 | $170.36 | $818,239.08 |
| 2026-03-27 | 577 | $168.92 | $97,466.84 |
| 2026-03-26 | 33,767 | $167.27 | $5.6M |
| 2026-03-25 | 47 | $170.36 | $8,006.92 |
| 2026-03-24 | 3,442 | $176.50 | $607,513 |
| 2026-03-18 | 1 | $185.07 | $185.07 |
| 2026-03-13 | 93 | $179.86 | $16,726.98 |
| 2026-03-12 | 13,632 | $182.85 | $2.5M |
| 2026-03-10 | 1,425 | $186.64 | $265,962 |
| 2026-03-09 | 6,316 | $188.59 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-05 | 7,370 | $190.80 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-04 | 4,481 | $190.25 | $852,510.25 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,602 | $190.20 | $304,700.4 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2,284 | $191.86 | $438,208.24 |
| 2026-02-27 | 5,079 | $185.01 | $939,665.79 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CCI | 0.813 | 0.824 | High co-movement |
| SBAC | 0.668 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.507 | 0.608 | Moderate |
| AWK | 0.501 | 0.407 | Moderate |
| ADC | 0.477 | 0.379 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.476 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.469 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.468 | 0.469 | Moderate |
| VICI | 0.463 | 0.459 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AMT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.