Crown Castle Inc. (CCI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCCI trades at 38.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 47.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 0.0. DCF fair value of $266 implies 205% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Crown Castle Inc. present a distinct divergence between operational efficiency and capital structure mechanics, highlighted by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.2% that indicates current returns fall short of the cost of capital despite robust gross margins exceeding 74%. The DuPont decomposition reveals this dynamic primarily through extreme leverage; while net margins sit at 10.4%, they are counterbalanced by a negative equity multiplier of -19.28x, driving an ROE of -27.2% and triggering an Altman Z-Score of 0.0 which signals heightened distress risk under traditional solvency metrics. Conversely, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial strength relative to peers, supported by a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.70 that implies low earnings manipulation risk even as revenue contracts slightly at -4.4% year-over-year.
Valuation analysis indicates a significant premium priced into the current multiple compared to sector norms and intrinsic models. Trading at 33.6x forward earnings, the stock remains below the REIT sector average of 41.4x, yet it commands a substantial discount relative to its DCF-derived fair value of $267, which implies an upside gap of approximately 228.6%. This valuation discrepancy appears anchored by conservative long-term expectations for free cash flow growth set at just 3.2% over the next decade rather than aggressive expansion assumptions. The market pricing thus reflects a tension between the company's high-margin asset base and the capital-intensive nature required to maintain its infrastructure footprint in a slowing revenue environment.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics further complicate the investment thesis, as evidenced by an annualized Fama-French alpha of -11.54% indicating underperformance against factor-based benchmarks over the measured period. Although the portfolio exhibits a positive value tilt with an HML score of 0.236, this is offset by a weak profitability factor (RMW) of -0.396, suggesting that quality characteristics are currently detracting from risk-adjusted returns. Compounding these fundamental headwinds, insider flow data shows $814,045 in net selling over the last 90 days, adding a layer of caution regarding management's immediate outlook despite the company's established position within the real estate sector.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $358 | $222 | $151 |
| 3% | $470 | $266 | $174 |
| 4% | $678 | $330 | $203 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $89.92.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $266 (+205.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 61% below its 5-year average P/E of 88.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCrown Castle Inc. is currently trading at $86.66, a position that places the security within its established moving average envelope boundaries rather than exhibiting extreme overextension or deep value compression relative to recent trend lines. This alignment suggests the asset is operating in a state of equilibrium where price action has not yet deviated significantly enough from its mean to trigger an immediate statistical pullback or acceleration based solely on this singular data point. The proximity to these central tendency metrics implies that volatility may remain constrained as long as the stock continues to hover near these dynamic support and resistance levels, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum in either upward or downward trajectories at this specific moment. From a relative-value perspective, the current pricing structure does not clearly signal an imminent mean-reversion event toward either the upper or lower bounds of the standard deviation bands. Instead, the setup reflects a neutral technical posture where historical price behavior suggests stability rather than a distinct opportunity for significant contraction or expansion based on envelope proximity alone. Observers might note that without further divergence from these averages, the probability of continued range-bound activity remains high, as the market appears to be respecting recent trend parameters without showing signs of breaking out or reversing sharply. Consequently, any future movement toward mean reversion would likely require additional catalysts beyond the current static price-to-average relationship currently observed in the Real Estate sector.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $1.0630 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $1.0630 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $1.0630 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $1.0630 | -32.1% |
| 2025-03-14 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-13 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $1.5650 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or IYR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CCI shares regardless of Crown Castle Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to CCI through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Crown Castle Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CCI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CCI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 CCI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.2% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 2.8% of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 84M shares (19.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CCI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CCI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Crown Castle Inc. over the past year sits near $88.04 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $89.92 trades 2.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CCI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Crown Castle Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Crown Castle Inc. converts 105% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 3 | $89.62 | $268.86 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,108 | $91.07 | $100,905.56 |
| 2026-04-29 | 169 | $86.17 | $14,562.73 |
| 2026-04-28 | 44 | $83.44 | $3,671.36 |
| 2026-04-20 | 74 | $88.71 | $6,564.54 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $86.27 | $258.81 |
| 2026-03-26 | 8,468 | $76.96 | $651,697.28 |
| 2026-03-25 | 38,975 | $78.59 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-23 | 907 | $82.36 | $74,700.52 |
| 2026-03-19 | 149 | $84.91 | $12,651.59 |
| 2026-03-12 | 30 | $87.56 | $2,626.8 |
| 2026-03-09 | 1,797 | $90.43 | $162,502.71 |
| 2026-02-24 | 4 | $87.70 | $350.8 |
| 2026-02-23 | 29 | $88.01 | $2,552.29 |
| 2026-02-17 | 531 | $90.38 | $47,991.78 |
| 2026-02-06 | 27,118 | $78.37 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-03 | 1 | $84.96 | $84.96 |
| 2026-01-30 | 735 | $86.92 | $63,886.2 |
| 2026-01-22 | 3 | $87.17 | $261.51 |
| 2026-01-13 | 19 | $84.99 | $1,614.81 |
| 2025-12-30 | 894 | $88.66 | $79,262.04 |
| 2025-12-19 | 873 | $86.90 | $75,863.7 |
| 2025-12-09 | 8 | $90.82 | $726.56 |
| 2025-12-02 | 6,180 | $88.50 | $546,930 |
| 2025-11-28 | 12,396 | $90.55 | $1.1M |
| 2025-11-24 | 603 | $90.01 | $54,276.03 |
| 2025-11-20 | 36 | $91.05 | $3,277.8 |
| 2025-11-18 | 54,805 | $90.55 | $5.0M |
| 2025-11-17 | 5,044 | $91.68 | $462,433.92 |
| 2025-11-14 | 4,926 | $90.61 | $446,344.86 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AMT | 0.813 | 0.824 | High co-movement |
| SBAC | 0.693 | 0.665 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.530 | 0.589 | Moderate |
| PSA | 0.498 | 0.483 | Moderate |
| EXR | 0.484 | 0.507 | Moderate |
| WEC | 0.479 | 0.436 | Moderate |
| ATO | 0.475 | 0.410 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.473 | 0.441 | Moderate |
| VICI | 0.465 | 0.445 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CCI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.