Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 32.5x earnings — a 31% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — EXR is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.5. DCF fair value of $151 suggests 8% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Extra Space Storage Inc. present a distinct capital efficiency challenge, highlighted by an ROIC-WACC spread of -5.1%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of equity despite generating strong operating leverage with a 70.8% gross margin and net margins near 29%. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that returns are driven primarily by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.04x) rather than operational intensity or asset turnover, which remains low at 0.12x, qualitative risk indicators suggest potential fragility; an Altman Z-Score of 1.4 signals elevated distress probability compared to the robust Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and clean Beneish M-Score of -2.46 that points away from earnings manipulation.
Valuation metrics display a notable divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models, with shares trading at a P/E multiple of 29.2x against a sector average of 87.1x, suggesting the stock is priced significantly below its peers on an earnings basis yet still commands a premium over historical norms when adjusted for growth expectations. A DCF analysis implies fair value at $159, reflecting long-term free cash flow assumptions anchored by an eight-year implied growth rate of 8.1%, which translates to approximately 21% upside from current levels if those projections hold true; however, this optimism must be weighed against the fact that market participants appear to have priced in substantial expansion given the wide valuation gap relative to historical averages and sector peers.
Risk-adjusted performance data introduces further nuance to the investment case, as a negative Fama-French Alpha of -1.75% annually indicates underperformance after adjusting for size, value, and profitability factors over recent periods. Although the stock exhibits a slight tilt toward the Value factor (HML at 0.175), this is insufficient to offset the drag on risk-adjusted returns suggested by the negative alpha. Additionally, insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling of $1.06 million, which may signal management caution regarding near-term valuation levels or capital allocation priorities despite the company's otherwise solid profitability profile and low earnings manipulation scores.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $195 | $131 | $92 |
| 3% | $236 | $151 | $104 |
| 4% | $295 | $178 | $119 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $142.29.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $151 (+8.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 3% below its 5-year average P/E of 31.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedExtra Space Storage Inc. currently trades at $142.25 within the Real Estate sector, presenting a technical snapshot where price action must be weighed against inherent market volatility and potential drawdown risks in this asset class. The absence of immediate trend confirmation suggests that momentum may be fragile rather than structural, particularly given how real estate equities often react sensitively to broader fundamental backdrops such as interest rate fluctuations or occupancy shifts. Without visible support levels holding steady above the current price point, any upward movement could face significant resistance from underlying volatility, while a reversal might trigger rapid downside corrections typical of this sector during periods of economic uncertainty. The interplay between the current valuation and historical drawdown patterns indicates that risk dynamics are not yet fully stabilized. If recent gains were driven primarily by short-term sentiment rather than sustained fundamental improvements in rental income or capitalization rates, the technical setup remains precarious. Investors must observe whether price consolidates effectively to determine if the current level represents a sustainable floor or merely a temporary pause before further correction. The market structure implies that without corroborating volume spikes or breakout signals above key resistance zones, the prevailing risk profile leans toward caution, as fragile momentum in high-beta sectors like storage REITs can deteriorate quickly when macroeconomic headwinds emerge.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-16 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-16 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | $1.6200 | +165.6% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.6100 | -39.6% |
| 2023-07-12 | $1.0100 | -37.7% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or SCHH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EXR shares regardless of Extra Space Storage Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to EXR through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Extra Space Storage Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with EXR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EXR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 EXR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 2.3% of the Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 41M shares (19.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest EXR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EXR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Extra Space Storage Inc. over the past year sits near $143.45 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $142.29 sits 0.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EXR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Extra Space Storage Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Extra Space Storage Inc. converts 76% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 48 | $146.95 | $7,053.6 |
| 2026-04-20 | 265 | $145.36 | $38,520.4 |
| 2026-04-15 | 495 | $141.43 | $70,007.85 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,857 | $134.06 | $517,069.42 |
| 2026-03-31 | 198 | $128.28 | $25,399.44 |
| 2026-03-30 | 147 | $128.96 | $18,957.12 |
| 2026-03-25 | 21 | $129.79 | $2,725.59 |
| 2026-03-10 | 389 | $146.29 | $56,906.81 |
| 2026-03-05 | 285 | $150.36 | $42,852.6 |
| 2026-02-25 | 97 | $149.68 | $14,518.96 |
| 2026-02-24 | 5 | $150.41 | $752.05 |
| 2026-02-20 | 8,128 | $146.09 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-13 | 2,434 | $144.34 | $351,323.56 |
| 2026-02-06 | 5,118 | $138.54 | $709,047.72 |
| 2026-02-05 | 664 | $141.71 | $94,095.44 |
| 2026-02-04 | 13,041 | $138.12 | $1.8M |
| 2026-02-03 | 12,852 | $135.20 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-02 | 43,353 | $137.97 | $6.0M |
| 2026-01-29 | 503 | $137.16 | $68,991.48 |
| 2026-01-28 | 5,371 | $139.79 | $750,812.09 |
| 2026-01-27 | 115 | $140.09 | $16,110.35 |
| 2026-01-22 | 53,467 | $145.42 | $7.8M |
| 2026-01-15 | 83 | $144.72 | $12,011.76 |
| 2026-01-08 | 42,817 | $133.88 | $5.7M |
| 2026-01-07 | 3 | $135.46 | $406.38 |
| 2026-01-05 | 248,710 | $130.97 | $32.6M |
| 2025-11-28 | 98 | $133.29 | $13,062.42 |
| 2025-11-26 | 152 | $132.37 | $20,120.24 |
| 2025-11-21 | 6,290 | $128.81 | $810,214.9 |
| 2025-11-17 | 722 | $132.91 | $95,961.02 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CUBE | 0.897 | 0.903 | High co-movement |
| PSA | 0.885 | 0.864 | High co-movement |
| VRTPX | 0.736 | 0.683 | High co-movement |
| AVB | 0.625 | 0.491 | Moderate |
| KIM | 0.593 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| MAA | 0.551 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| EQR | 0.535 | 0.385 | Moderate |
| O | 0.533 | 0.527 | Moderate |
| PLD | 0.533 | 0.480 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EXR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.