Archrock, Inc. (AROC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 18.2x earnings — a 48% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — AROC is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 9/9) with Altman Z of 1.4. DCF fair value of $16 implies 56% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedArchrock exhibits exceptional fundamental quality, evidenced by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a robust Beneish M-Score of -2.40 that strongly signals low earnings manipulation risk. The company's return on equity of 21.6% is driven primarily by high net margins rather than leverage or asset turnover; specifically, the DuPont decomposition reveals an impressive 21.6% net margin offsetting a modest 0.34x asset turnover and moderate 2.92x financial leverage. This operational efficiency generates returns that likely exceed the cost of capital, creating a positive ROIC-WACC spread essential for value creation in the energy sector.
Despite these strong fundamentals, valuation metrics suggest significant market skepticism or pricing inefficiency relative to intrinsic models. The current P/E ratio of 19.6x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 31.0x, indicating the stock is not priced on multiple expansion but rather on earnings contraction fears. However, discounted cash flow analysis points to an even starker divergence; with fair value estimated at $16 and implied free cash flow growth remaining robust at 21.2% over ten years, the current price implies a -54.6% downside from model-based valuations. This suggests the market is pricing in severe headwinds that appear inconsistent with the company's high-margin operational reality.
Risk factors are further illuminated by insider activity, which shows $382,574 in net selling over the last 90 days, a potential negative signal given the otherwise pristine financial health scores. While the Fama-French alpha data is not explicitly provided to assess style exposure, the combination of deep valuation discounts and active insider offloading creates a complex risk-reward profile where downside protection may be limited despite attractive margin profiles. Investors must weigh whether the current discount reflects temporary sector cyclicality or structural issues that could prevent realization of the implied 21.2% long-term growth rate.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 29% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $24 | $12 | $6 |
| 3% | $33 | $16 | $8 |
| 4% | $49 | $21 | $10 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $34.21.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $16 (-56.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 79% above its 5-year average P/E of 11.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedArchrock, Inc. is currently trading at $37.43 within the energy sector, presenting a specific snapshot for relative-value analysis without implying any directional mandate. The immediate technical context hinges on the stock's proximity to its Simple Moving Average envelope; if the current price sits near or outside these dynamic bands, it suggests a potential deviation from recent trend means that could invite mean-reversion forces in either direction. Conversely, trading well inside the envelope might indicate sustained momentum with less immediate pressure for a snap-back toward historical averages. The distance between the $37.43 mark and the surrounding moving average lines serves as a critical gauge of volatility compression or expansion, offering insight into how aggressively price corrections could unfold if statistical norms reassert themselves. In this relative framework, the positioning of the share price against its calculated mean reveals whether the asset is in a state of equilibrium or experiencing an outlier move that historically precedes stabilization. A significant gap between the current valuation and the moving average centerline often signals heightened potential for the price to drift back toward statistical fairness, whereas tight alignment suggests continued adherence to established trends with lower immediate reversal probability. This setup invites observation of how market participants react when prices test these boundaries, as the envelope acts not merely as a line but as a psychological and mathematical threshold where mean-reversion strategies often find their footing. Ultimately, the interplay between the $37.43 price point and its moving average structure highlights the inherent tension between current valuation levels and historical
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.2200 | +4.8% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-05 | $0.2100 | +10.5% |
| 2025-05-06 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-12 | $0.1900 | +8.6% |
| 2024-11-06 | $0.1750 | +6.1% |
| 2024-08-06 | $0.1650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-06 | $0.1650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-05 | $0.1650 | +6.5% |
| 2023-11-06 | $0.1550 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-07 | $0.1550 | +3.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AROC shares regardless of Archrock, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $494M of passive capital is structurally linked to AROC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AROC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Archrock, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Archrock, Inc. (AROC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AROC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 11 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AROC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 13 AROC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Archrock, Inc. (AROC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the XES (XES) and 0.8% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 11 tracked ETFs, approximately 14M shares (8.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AROC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AROC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Archrock, Inc. over the past year sits near $24.23 (21% of 252-day volume). The current price of $34.21 trades 41.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (21% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AROC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Archrock, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Archrock, Inc. converts 14% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 86% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 3,769 | $36.71 | $138,359.99 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,201 | $36.19 | $43,464.19 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,760 | $34.49 | $95,192.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 17 | $35.53 | $604.01 |
| 2026-03-19 | 108 | $35.74 | $3,859.92 |
| 2026-03-17 | 6,247 | $35.48 | $221,643.56 |
| 2026-03-12 | 3 | $35.96 | $107.88 |
| 2026-03-09 | 5,464 | $35.32 | $192,988.48 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8 | $35.80 | $286.4 |
| 2026-03-02 | 5,598 | $35.33 | $197,777.34 |
| 2026-02-27 | 5,740 | $35.43 | $203,368.2 |
| 2026-01-23 | 6 | $27.91 | $167.46 |
| 2026-01-22 | 25 | $27.89 | $697.25 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,897 | $26.93 | $51,086.21 |
| 2026-01-16 | 1,374 | $26.18 | $35,971.32 |
| 2026-01-13 | 1,330 | $25.36 | $33,728.8 |
| 2026-01-08 | 59 | $25.70 | $1,516.3 |
| 2026-01-05 | 108 | $26.63 | $2,876.04 |
| 2025-12-09 | 144 | $24.99 | $3,598.56 |
| 2025-12-05 | 1,210 | $25.14 | $30,419.4 |
| 2025-11-26 | 320 | $24.00 | $7,680 |
| 2025-10-30 | 253 | $24.94 | $6,309.82 |
| 2025-10-14 | 255 | $24.14 | $6,155.7 |
| 2025-10-09 | 55 | $25.84 | $1,421.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| KGS | 0.782 | 0.744 | High co-movement |
| TRGP | 0.524 | 0.435 | Moderate |
| FTI | 0.513 | 0.553 | Moderate |
| OII | 0.467 | 0.485 | Moderate |
| OKE | 0.452 | 0.264 | Moderate |
| NOV | 0.437 | 0.469 | Moderate |
| FITB | 0.434 | 0.485 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.433 | 0.419 | Moderate |
| WTFC | 0.432 | 0.453 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AROC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.