OII (OII)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 4.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $58 implies 55% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency demonstrates a robust ROIC-WACC spread of 2.2%, indicating that the firm generates returns exceeding its cost of capital, though the margin for error is relatively tight compared to high-growth peers. This profitability profile is anchored by strong operational leverage rather than excessive debt or thin margins; specifically, the DuPont decomposition reveals healthy net and gross margins at 12.7% and 20.4%, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 that signals improving financial strength through consistent earnings quality and balance sheet stability. The Altman Z-Score of 4.2 further corroborates low bankruptcy risk, while the Beneish M-Score of -2.27 suggests management reporting is unlikely to be manipulated, collectively painting a picture of a fundamentally sound entity with sustainable competitive advantages in its operations.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence between current pricing and historical norms, as the stock trades at 10.7x forward earnings, representing a 46% premium over its five-year average of 7.1x. This multiple expansion implies that market participants are currently pricing in an accelerated growth trajectory consistent with the DCF model's assumption of long-term free cash flow compounding at 8.7%. While the absolute P/E remains lower than typical high-growth sectors, the premium relative to historical averages suggests the market is anticipating a shift from value-oriented metrics toward higher sustainable earnings generation and operational scaling in the coming years.
The risk-reward asymmetry appears favorable based on intrinsic valuation models; with a DCF-derived fair value of $58 implying 54.6% upside, current pricing may be undervalued relative to long-term cash flow potential. However, investors must weigh this opportunity against the modest revenue growth rate of 4.6%, which constrains total shareholder return if margins compress or leverage increases unexpectedly. The combination of a solid credit profile and reasonable valuation multiples suggests limited downside risk from fundamental deterioration, provided the implied growth assumptions materialize as expected in future periods.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $69 | $53 | $43 |
| 3% | $78 | $58 | $46 |
| 4% | $90 | $64 | $50 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $38.67.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $58 (+54.6%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-08-23 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2017-05-24 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2017-02-22 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2016-11-22 | $0.1500 | -44.4% |
| 2016-08-24 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2016-05-25 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2016-02-24 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2015-11-24 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2015-08-26 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2015-05-27 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2015-02-25 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2014-11-25 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OII shares regardless of OII's individual fundamentals. We estimate $153M of passive capital is structurally linked to OII through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on OII's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in OII to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If OII (OII) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies KODIAK GAS SERVICES INC (KGS) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with OII. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
OII Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 22 OII shares, reducing daily market volatility.
OII (OII) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the XES (XES) and 0.3% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 10 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (4.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest OII Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
OII Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for OII over the past year sits near $23.77 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $38.67 trades 62.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
OII Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does OII convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
OII converts 49% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 51% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 596 | $37.93 | $22,606.28 |
| 2026-05-07 | 103,671 | $37.07 | $3.8M |
| 2026-04-24 | 65,466 | $38.01 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-23 | 22,574 | $38.47 | $868,421.78 |
| 2026-04-16 | 543 | $35.77 | $19,423.11 |
| 2026-04-14 | 190 | $37.43 | $7,111.7 |
| 2026-04-13 | 42,941 | $36.20 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-27 | 24,900 | $36.52 | $909,348 |
| 2026-03-17 | 4,712 | $33.69 | $158,747.28 |
| 2026-03-11 | 10,464 | $36.14 | $378,168.96 |
| 2026-03-09 | 11 | $34.21 | $376.31 |
| 2026-03-05 | 95 | $35.14 | $3,338.3 |
| 2026-02-27 | 12,961 | $37.57 | $486,944.77 |
| 2026-02-26 | 50,971 | $37.92 | $1.9M |
| 2026-02-20 | 189 | $36.18 | $6,838.02 |
| 2026-02-17 | 276 | $33.15 | $9,149.4 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2,593 | $30.10 | $78,049.3 |
| 2026-01-26 | 237 | $29.17 | $6,913.29 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2,186 | $26.73 | $58,431.78 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,192 | $27.27 | $32,505.84 |
| 2026-01-15 | 2 | $27.06 | $54.12 |
| 2026-01-12 | 80 | $26.73 | $2,138.4 |
| 2026-01-06 | 447 | $26.17 | $11,697.99 |
| 2025-12-22 | 42 | $23.61 | $991.62 |
| 2025-12-12 | 19 | $26.65 | $506.35 |
| 2025-12-10 | 207 | $27.51 | $5,694.57 |
| 2025-11-26 | 1,106 | $24.57 | $27,174.42 |
| 2025-11-24 | 328 | $24.15 | $7,921.2 |
| 2025-11-20 | 4 | $23.62 | $94.48 |
| 2025-11-19 | 6 | $23.50 | $141 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NOV | 0.640 | 0.570 | Moderate |
| NE | 0.623 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| SLB | 0.623 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| HAL | 0.615 | 0.512 | Moderate |
| WFRD | 0.607 | 0.473 | Moderate |
| PTEN | 0.607 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| BKR | 0.593 | 0.548 | Moderate |
| FTI | 0.588 | 0.464 | Moderate |
| SDRL | 0.563 | 0.512 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare OII to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.