NE (NE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.3. DCF fair value of $93 implies 88% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits moderate capital efficiency with an ROIC of 5.1%, suggesting a limited spread over the cost of equity that constrains long-term value creation potential. The DuPont decomposition reveals that earnings power is driven primarily by leverage (Equity Multiplier at 1.66x) rather than operational excellence, as net margins sit at a modest 6.6% and asset turnover remains low at 0.44x despite gross margin expansion to 19.7%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates reasonable financial strength with positive earnings momentum relative to revenue growth of 7.4%, the Beneish M-Score of -2.65 signals a low probability of manipulation, reinforcing the credibility of reported fundamentals despite the reliance on leverage for return generation.
Valuation metrics present a significant disparity between current pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow analysis. Trading at a forward P/E multiple of 36.2x, which implies substantial growth expectations not currently reflected in the underlying economics, the stock appears materially overvalued against its DCF fair value estimate of $87. This valuation gap corresponds to an implied upside of 78% only if future free cash flow can sustain a ten-year compound growth rate of 8.1%, a trajectory that seems aggressive given the current margin and turnover profile. The market is effectively pricing in a step-change in operational efficiency or leverage utilization that historical data has not yet demonstrated.
Insider activity during the past ninety days shows net selling totaling approximately $15.9 million, introducing a notable risk factor delta regarding management's confidence in near-term execution. This outflow contrasts with the high implied growth rate embedded in current multiples and suggests caution when interpreting the DCF upside as an immediate arbitrage opportunity. The combination of elevated valuation, reliance on leverage for ROE, and significant insider disposals creates a complex risk-reward profile where realized returns may depend heavily on whether operational metrics can diverge from historical norms to justify premium pricing.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $117 | $81 | $61 |
| 3% | $141 | $93 | $67 |
| 4% | $178 | $108 | $75 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $47.13.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $93 (+87.7%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-04 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-04 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-05 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-05 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-05 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-12 | $0.5000 | +25.0% |
| 2024-06-06 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.4000 | +33.3% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.3000 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NE shares regardless of NE's individual fundamentals. We estimate $478M of passive capital is structurally linked to NE through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on NE's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in NE to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If NE (NE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with NE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 16 NE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
NE (NE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.1% of the XES (XES) and 0.4% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 10M shares (6.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest NE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for NE over the past year sits near $27.42 (22% of 252-day volume). The current price of $47.13 trades 71.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (22% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does NE convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
NE converts 43% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 57% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 64 | $49.08 | $3,141.12 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,227 | $50.54 | $62,012.58 |
| 2026-04-30 | 145,234 | $50.30 | $7.3M |
| 2026-04-29 | 230,298 | $50.98 | $11.7M |
| 2026-04-16 | 776 | $47.42 | $36,797.92 |
| 2026-04-15 | 37,842 | $47.67 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,949 | $49.50 | $96,475.5 |
| 2026-04-13 | 40,696 | $48.93 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-10 | 155 | $49.62 | $7,691.1 |
| 2026-04-06 | 55,587 | $49.86 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-02 | 2,562 | $48.50 | $124,257 |
| 2026-03-31 | 6,478 | $48.89 | $316,709.42 |
| 2026-03-23 | 18,618 | $46.71 | $869,646.78 |
| 2026-03-18 | 4,502 | $47.64 | $214,475.28 |
| 2026-03-13 | 813 | $45.70 | $37,154.1 |
| 2026-03-12 | 4,697 | $45.33 | $212,915.01 |
| 2026-03-11 | 121 | $45.56 | $5,512.76 |
| 2026-03-10 | 29 | $45.46 | $1,318.34 |
| 2026-03-09 | 100 | $43.70 | $4,370 |
| 2026-03-05 | 20,792 | $45.82 | $952,689.44 |
| 2026-03-04 | 51,024 | $45.67 | $2.3M |
| 2026-03-02 | 122,285 | $45.43 | $5.6M |
| 2026-02-26 | 1,233 | $45.72 | $56,372.76 |
| 2026-02-25 | 818 | $46.15 | $37,750.7 |
| 2026-02-20 | 62,645 | $45.34 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-18 | 15,025 | $43.47 | $653,136.75 |
| 2026-02-17 | 3,782 | $45.82 | $173,291.24 |
| 2026-02-13 | 811 | $42.58 | $34,532.38 |
| 2026-02-11 | 105,669 | $41.93 | $4.4M |
| 2026-02-10 | 42,605 | $41.86 | $1.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SDRL | 0.784 | 0.744 | High co-movement |
| VAL | 0.782 | 0.757 | High co-movement |
| RIG | 0.735 | 0.741 | High co-movement |
| NOV | 0.666 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| PTEN | 0.662 | 0.565 | Moderate |
| TDW | 0.649 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| MUR | 0.643 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| HP | 0.636 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| OII | 0.623 | 0.551 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.