HP (HP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 1.8. DCF fair value of $4 implies 90% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of HP reveal a severe capital allocation inefficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -6.2%, indicating the firm is currently destroying value rather than generating excess returns on deployed capital. This negative trajectory is mathematically confirmed by a DuPont-decomposed ROE of -5.8%, driven primarily by a net margin contraction to -4.4% despite a robust 35.9% revenue growth and moderate asset turnover; the equity multiplier of 2.37x suggests leverage is amplifying losses rather than stabilizing earnings. While the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals some operational resilience, the Altman Z-Score of 1.8 places the company in a distinct zone of financial distress risk, and although a Beneish M-Score of -2.25 suggests low manipulation probability, the negative equity return contradicts any narrative of sustainable profitability under current conditions.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from cash flow assumptions. The DCF model, which assumes an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 10%, assigns a fair value of $4, implying the stock is trading at approximately -90% relative to this estimate—a figure that mathematically reflects current negative earnings rather than future potential. This deep discount appears inconsistent with historical norms and sector peers if one assumes the revenue expansion can eventually convert into positive operating leverage, yet the market price currently embeds a premium for these distressed fundamentals or anticipates a prolonged period before margin normalization occurs.
Insider activity over the last 90 days shows $2.15 million in net selling, adding a layer of caution to any bullish thesis regarding future recovery. The combination of negative ROIC, high distress risk per Altman metrics, and significant insider outflows creates a risk-reward profile where downside volatility is structurally elevated unless there is an imminent catalyst for margin expansion that the current financial statements do not yet reflect.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 36% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.7% | 8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $3 | $0 | $0 |
| 3% | $8 | $4 | $0 |
| 4% | $18 | $10 | $0 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $39.36.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $4 (-90.1%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHP is currently trading at $39.61, a price point that sits within the broader context of its recent volatility patterns and fundamental underpinnings. The technical structure suggests a period where momentum dynamics are being tested against underlying support levels, creating an environment where short-term fluctuations could quickly amplify into larger drawdowns if market sentiment shifts abruptly. This fragility is evident in how closely the current price action mirrors historical stress points, indicating that any adverse news or macroeconomic tightening could trigger a swift reversion to lower valuations rather than sustaining upward pressure. The interplay between volatility and the immediate support zone reveals a risk profile where structural integrity remains unproven without corroborating fundamental improvements. While the asset has not yet breached critical resistance thresholds that would signal a robust trend reversal, the proximity of selling pressure to key psychological levels implies that bullish momentum is currently tenuous. Traders observing this setup must weigh the potential for continued consolidation against the heightened probability of further downside correction, as the absence of strong volume confirmation at current prices leaves the directionality ambiguous and susceptible to external shocks.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-18 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-18 | $0.2500 | -40.5% |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-12 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-17 | $0.4200 | -13.4% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.4850 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or SLYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HP shares regardless of HP's individual fundamentals. We estimate $152M of passive capital is structurally linked to HP through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HP's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in HP to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If HP (HP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 24 HP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
HP (HP) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.0% of the XES (XES) and 0.2% of the SLYV (SLYV). Across 11 tracked ETFs, approximately 4M shares (4.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest HP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for HP over the past year sits near $15.31 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $39.36 trades 157.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HP Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does HP convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
HP converts 18% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 82% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 34 | $39.83 | $1,354.22 |
| 2026-04-24 | 96 | $37.58 | $3,607.68 |
| 2026-04-13 | 54,339 | $34.68 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-08 | 811 | $35.88 | $29,098.68 |
| 2026-03-26 | 30,352 | $36.36 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,143 | $37.13 | $42,439.59 |
| 2026-03-23 | 100 | $36.48 | $3,648 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1,231 | $36.17 | $44,525.27 |
| 2026-03-12 | 8,544 | $34.74 | $296,818.56 |
| 2026-03-09 | 78 | $34.09 | $2,659.02 |
| 2026-03-05 | 249 | $34.32 | $8,545.68 |
| 2026-02-27 | 353 | $34.59 | $12,210.27 |
| 2026-02-20 | 63 | $35.96 | $2,265.48 |
| 2026-02-17 | 345 | $33.20 | $11,454 |
| 2026-02-06 | 19,185 | $34.53 | $662,458.05 |
| 2026-02-05 | 1,199 | $36.41 | $43,655.59 |
| 2026-02-03 | 233 | $34.25 | $7,980.25 |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,450 | $33.88 | $49,126 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,955 | $31.98 | $62,520.9 |
| 2026-01-20 | 3,151 | $32.38 | $102,029.38 |
| 2026-01-06 | 553 | $31.17 | $17,237.01 |
| 2025-12-31 | 720 | $28.93 | $20,829.6 |
| 2025-12-22 | 355 | $27.94 | $9,918.7 |
| 2025-12-04 | 107 | $30.31 | $3,243.17 |
| 2025-11-18 | 682 | $27.61 | $18,830.02 |
| 2025-11-12 | 4 | $27.82 | $111.28 |
| 2025-11-10 | 37 | $26.19 | $969.03 |
| 2025-10-30 | 94 | $26.58 | $2,498.52 |
| 2025-10-29 | 6,600 | $25.32 | $167,112 |
| 2025-10-22 | 13 | $23.32 | $303.16 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PTEN | 0.765 | 0.727 | High co-movement |
| NOV | 0.696 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| COP | 0.673 | 0.570 | Moderate |
| SLB | 0.672 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| MUR | 0.667 | 0.548 | Moderate |
| WFRD | 0.650 | 0.564 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.641 | 0.508 | Moderate |
| NE | 0.636 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| HAL | 0.622 | 0.514 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.