NBR (NBR)

$94.38
+2.09%
$1.4B
Market Cap
6.8
P/E Ratio
1.02
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 1.0 DistressBeneish M -3.11 CleanROIC−WACC +9.1%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.0.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency exhibits a robust spread, with an ROIC of 15.7% significantly outpacing the WACC of 6.6%, yielding a +9.1% advantage that suggests strong value creation potential relative to cost of capital. This profitability is anchored by healthy operating metrics, specifically a net margin of 9.0% and gross margin of 19.5%, supported by consistent revenue growth of 8.7% YoY. Fundamental integrity appears reinforced by a high Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an exceptionally low Beneish M-Score of -3.11, which collectively indicate minimal earnings manipulation risk; however, the Altman Z-Score of 1.0 signals elevated distress probability that warrants scrutiny regarding liquidity or asset structure despite the otherwise strong operational profile.

Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between current pricing and historical norms, with the stock trading at a P/E multiple of only 5.2x. This level is markedly depressed relative to typical sector benchmarks for companies displaying such growth and return characteristics, suggesting the market may be discounting future prospects heavily or pricing in significant downside risk not fully captured by standard multiples. While fundamental drivers like margin expansion and turnover appear intact based on the provided data points, the extreme compression of the P/E ratio implies that investor sentiment has detached from the underlying economic reality of a firm generating double-digit returns on invested capital with low earnings manipulation indicators.

The convergence of these factors creates an asymmetric risk-reward profile where high fundamental quality metrics clash with distress signals and deep valuation discounts. The strong Piotroski score combined with negative Beneish M-Score points to reliable financial reporting, yet the Altman Z-Score introduces a critical counterweight that could limit upside if solvency concerns materialize. Investors must weigh whether the 5.2x P/E reflects a temporary market overreaction or a structural impairment in growth expectations, particularly given the disconnect between the company's ability to generate excess returns and its current valuation floor.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
1.0
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-3.11
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

19.5%
Gross Margin
9.0%
Net Margin
15.7%
ROIC
6.6%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +9.1%— Positive value creation spread.
+8.7%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+262.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.7M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

2.33x
Debt / Equity
1.56x
Current Ratio
3.5x
Interest Coverage
0.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.91%
FCF Yield
1.4B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $-2.88
Act: $2.18
+175.7%
Q3
✗ Miss
Est: $-1.52
Act: $-2.71
-78.6%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $-2.05
Act: $16.85
+922.0%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $-0.96
Act: $0.17
+117.7%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.5000
Latest Dividend
$0.50
2020 Total
-50.0%
YoY Growth
Annual Dividends per Share
$8.00
2013
$10.00
2014
$12.00
2015
$12.00
2016
$6.00
2017
$12.00
2018
$1.00
2019
$0.50
2020
DateAmountChange
2020-03-11$0.50000.0%
2019-12-12$0.50000.0%
2019-09-10$0.5000-83.3%
2018-12-12$3.00000.0%
2018-09-10$3.00000.0%
2018-06-11$3.00000.0%
2018-03-12$3.00000.0%
2017-12-12$3.00000.0%
2017-03-10$3.00000.0%
2016-12-12$3.00000.0%
2016-09-09$3.00000.0%
2016-06-08$3.00000.0%
Stock Splits
2020-04-23: 0.02:12006-04-18: 2:1

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

Loading drawdown chart...

Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

Loading beta chart...
Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

27.3
Forward P/E
2.90
PEG Ratio
2.41
Price/Book
342463
Avg Volume
$112.90
52W High
$26.03
52W Low
79%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$26M
Tracked Passive Exposure
3
ETFs Holding NBR
0.18%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$15B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or VFMO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NBR shares regardless of NBR's individual fundamentals. We estimate $26M of passive capital is structurally linked to NBR through 3 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on NBR's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 3 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in NBR to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

NBR Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
NBREpicenterVDEETFVFMOETFXESETFXOMLow RiskCVXLow RiskCOPLow RiskSEILow RiskWHDLow Risk
NBR Price Drop (%)0

If NBR (NBR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with NBR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 3 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

NBR Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 50 NBR shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
NBR
Total Shares
15M
ETF Lock-Up
2.0%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
2.0%Locked Float

NBR (NBR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.0% of the XES (XES) and 0.1% of the VFMO (VFMO). Across 3 tracked ETFs, approximately 0M shares (2.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.

ETFs with Highest NBR Exposure

Float lock-up computed from 3 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

NBR Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
NBR
PRICE
$94.38
FLOOR (POC)
$32.55
STRENGTH
High
$287%$33POC 19%$3711%$4111%$46$507%$54$59$63$67$72$76$807%$85$89$93$94.38$98$102$106$111
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for NBR over the past year sits near $32.55 (19% of 252-day volume). The current price of $94.38 trades 190.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (19% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

NBR Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does NBR convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$-22,682,000
EBITDA
$1.4B
FCF Conversion
-2%
Reinvestment Rate
102%
-2% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
15.7%
ROIC − WACC Spread
9.1%

NBR converts -2% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 102% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 9.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-084,685$96.52$452,196.2
2026-05-063,440$105.28$362,163.2
2026-05-01125$102.61$12,826.25
2026-04-20599$79.52$47,632.48
2026-04-1535$79.33$2,776.55
2026-04-133,575$80.22$286,786.5
2026-04-093$83.67$251.01
2026-03-1660$76.59$4,595.4
2026-03-1169$80.84$5,577.96
2026-03-05158$79.55$12,568.9
2026-02-2351$78.19$3,987.69
2026-02-0491$69.08$6,286.28
2026-01-2350$65.06$3,253
2026-01-154,485$63.45$284,573.25
2025-12-318,515$55.21$470,113.15
2025-12-222,000$51.26$102,520
2025-12-12171$57.07$9,758.97
2025-12-10248$56.31$13,964.88
2025-11-24600$46.19$27,714
2025-11-2116,650$46.24$769,896
2025-11-13833$48.44$40,350.52
2025-11-1231,923$51.79$1.7M
2025-11-061,008$51.84$52,254.72
2025-11-0327,813$48.52$1.3M

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare NBR to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.