RIG (RIG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z -0.3. DCF fair value of $17 implies 150% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of RIG is severely compromised, as evidenced by a ROIC-WACC spread of -22.6%, indicating that the firm consistently destroys value relative to its cost of equity despite generating strong gross margins near 83%. This divergence suggests operational inefficiencies or high fixed costs are eroding profitability, reflected in a net margin contraction to -73.5% and an Altman Z-Score of -0.3 that flags potential distress risk. While the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates moderate financial strength compared to deteriorating peers, the negative spread fundamentally undermines any leverage benefits from DuPont decomposition, as returns are insufficient to service capital costs even with revenue growth of 12.5% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a stark contrast between historical performance and discounted cash flow modeling, which implies a fair value of $17 and suggests significant upside potential based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 5.8%. However, this theoretical valuation relies heavily on the assumption that current negative net margins can be sustained or reversed without further capital erosion, creating a high-risk premium in the implied growth trajectory. The market appears to price in substantial recovery scenarios given the wide gap between DCF estimates and likely current trading levels, yet such optimism ignores the structural headwinds highlighted by the persistent spread between returns on invested capital and the weighted average cost of capital.
The Beneish M-Score of -3.57 points toward low earnings manipulation risk, which may provide some confidence in the reported revenue growth figures despite the profitability crisis. Nevertheless, the combination of negative Z-score territory and a deeply negative ROIC-WACC spread creates an asymmetric risk profile where downside protection is limited by solvency concerns while upside remains contingent on aggressive margin expansion or asset restructuring that has not yet materialized in fundamental results.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 13% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $22 | $14 | $10 |
| 3% | $27 | $17 | $11 |
| 4% | $35 | $20 | $13 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $6.25.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $17 (+150.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-08-21 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2015-05-27 | $0.1500 | -80.0% |
| 2015-02-18 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2014-11-12 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2014-08-20 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2014-05-28 | $0.7500 | +33.9% |
| 2014-02-19 | $0.5600 | 0.0% |
| 2013-11-13 | $0.5600 | 0.0% |
| 2013-08-21 | $0.5600 | 0.0% |
| 2013-05-29 | $0.5600 | -29.1% |
| 2012-02-22 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2011-11-22 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or VDE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell RIG shares regardless of RIG's individual fundamentals. We estimate $385M of passive capital is structurally linked to RIG through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on RIG's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in RIG to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If RIG (RIG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with RIG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
RIG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 18 RIG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
RIG (RIG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the XES (XES) and 0.3% of the VDE (VDE). Across 7 tracked ETFs, approximately 61M shares (5.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest RIG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
RIG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for RIG over the past year sits near $3.12 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $6.25 trades 100.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 100 | $6.55 | $655 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2,381 | $6.25 | $14,881.25 |
| 2026-05-05 | 676,283 | $6.88 | $4.7M |
| 2026-05-04 | 494,627 | $6.84 | $3.4M |
| 2026-04-29 | 1,137 | $6.79 | $7,720.23 |
| 2026-04-28 | 295,190 | $6.52 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-21 | 309,420 | $5.89 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-15 | 5,663 | $6.17 | $34,940.71 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2 | $6.56 | $13.12 |
| 2026-04-07 | 21,500 | $6.59 | $141,685 |
| 2026-04-06 | 23,849 | $6.59 | $157,164.91 |
| 2026-04-01 | 215 | $6.63 | $1,425.45 |
| 2026-03-30 | 345,013 | $6.93 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-26 | 403,761 | $6.77 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-24 | 112 | $6.46 | $723.52 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1 | $6.22 | $6.22 |
| 2026-03-18 | 773 | $6.58 | $5,086.34 |
| 2026-03-17 | 343,790 | $6.20 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-16 | 50 | $6.36 | $318 |
| 2026-03-13 | 50 | $6.28 | $314 |
| 2026-03-12 | 37,138 | $6.31 | $234,340.78 |
| 2026-03-11 | 172,237 | $6.16 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-10 | 8,004 | $6.17 | $49,384.68 |
| 2026-03-05 | 688,311 | $6.37 | $4.4M |
| 2026-03-03 | 234,760 | $6.25 | $1.5M |
| 2026-02-27 | 157 | $6.38 | $1,001.66 |
| 2026-02-26 | 10,819 | $6.41 | $69,349.79 |
| 2026-02-25 | 3,212 | $6.54 | $21,006.48 |
| 2026-02-23 | 107,501 | $6.52 | $700,906.52 |
| 2026-02-20 | 41,054 | $6.36 | $261,103.44 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NE | 0.735 | 0.741 | High co-movement |
| VAL | 0.718 | 0.732 | High co-movement |
| SDRL | 0.692 | 0.630 | Moderate |
| NOV | 0.642 | 0.617 | Moderate |
| HP | 0.618 | 0.572 | Moderate |
| PTEN | 0.610 | 0.495 | Moderate |
| WFRD | 0.574 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| MUR | 0.569 | 0.419 | Moderate |
| FANG | 0.563 | 0.425 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare RIG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.