ConocoPhillips (COP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 19.3x earnings — a 44% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — COP is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.2. DCF fair value of $44 implies 64% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of ConocoPhillips demonstrates a robust spread between its return on invested capital and cost of equity, generating an excess return of 3.7%, which signals value creation above the hurdle rate. This performance is underpinned by high operating leverage rather than asset intensity; while net margins stand at 13.6% and gross margins exceed 25%, the low asset turnover of 0.48x indicates that profitability relies heavily on a moderate equity multiplier of 1.89x to drive a total ROE of 12.4%. Qualitative financial health metrics further support this stability, with an Altman Z-Score of 3.2 suggesting a safe distance from distress and a Beneish M-Score of -2.90 indicating low likelihood of earnings manipulation, though the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects minor structural weaknesses in balance sheet strength or profitability trends compared to top-tier peers.
Valuation analysis reveals a significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from discounted cash flow assumptions. The stock currently trades at a P/E multiple of 20.5x, which sits notably below the sector average of 24.0x, yet this discount is not fully justified by DCF modeling that implies a fair value significantly lower than current levels. With an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of only 6.9% and a resulting negative upside projection of -53.3%, the market appears to be pricing in substantial downside risks or stagnant long-term expansion potential despite recent revenue growth of 7.7%. This disconnect suggests that while the stock offers value characteristics relative to its peer group, fundamental valuation models do not currently support a premium entry point based on future cash flow generation capabilities.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics present a mixed picture regarding alpha generation and insider sentiment over the trailing ninety-day period. The company exhibits a strong tilt toward the value factor with an HML score of 1.103 and maintains robust profitability characteristics reflected in an RMW factor of 0.325, yet it has underperformed its benchmark by -13.19% annually according to Fama-French alpha calculations. This underperformance coincides with substantial net insider selling totaling approximately $81 million, a flow that may signal management's view on near-term valuation or liquidity needs. Collectively, the data suggests an asset with solid fundamental economics and defensive value attributes but faces headwinds from aggressive insider activity and models projecting limited long-term growth momentum.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $52 | $37 | $25 |
| 3% | $69 | $44 | $29 |
| 4% | $102 | $56 | $34 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $116.87.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $44 (-64.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 35% below its 5-year average P/E of 29.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedConocoPhillips is currently trading at $124.54, presenting a specific technical snapshot within the energy sector that requires careful interpretation of its momentum and trend dynamics without projecting future price movements. The immediate focus lies in understanding where this current valuation stands relative to established moving averages, which serve as critical benchmarks for identifying whether the asset is operating within an upward or downward channel. Simultaneously, the Relative Strength Index offers insight into short-term velocity, indicating if buying or selling pressure has reached levels that might suggest exhaustion or acceleration in the near term. These metrics collectively paint a picture of market sentiment but do not inherently dictate direction on their own. The interplay between price position and average trends helps contextualize the asset's recent behavior, suggesting whether momentum is building sustainably or if it faces potential resistance based on historical patterns. Observers might note that when prices hover near key moving averages, volatility often increases as traders react to shifting support and resistance levels defined by these technical lines. Similarly, RSI readings provide a gauge of overbought or oversold conditions, hinting at possible short-term reversals if extreme values are approached. Ultimately, the data reflects current market mechanics rather than prescriptive guidance, leaving the assessment of whether this setup signals strength or weakness entirely to individual analysis and broader economic factors influencing the energy sector.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.8400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.8400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.8400 | +7.7% |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.7800 | +34.5% |
| 2023-11-13 | $0.5800 | -3.3% |
| 2023-09-27 | $0.6000 | +17.6% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or IYE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell COP shares regardless of ConocoPhillips's individual fundamentals. We estimate $22.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to COP through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in ConocoPhillips to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If ConocoPhillips (COP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with COP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
COP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 COP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
ConocoPhillips (COP) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 6.8% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 6.5% of the IYE (IYE). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 199M shares (16.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest COP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
COP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for ConocoPhillips over the past year sits near $92.34 (21% of 252-day volume). The current price of $116.87 trades 26.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (21% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
COP Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does ConocoPhillips convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
ConocoPhillips converts 28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 72% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 1,129 | $113.87 | $128,559.23 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,641 | $123.19 | $202,154.79 |
| 2026-04-24 | 18,106 | $124.37 | $2.3M |
| 2026-04-22 | 8 | $120.26 | $962.08 |
| 2026-04-20 | 221 | $116.04 | $25,644.84 |
| 2026-04-15 | 12 | $118.79 | $1,425.48 |
| 2026-04-08 | 842 | $131.77 | $110,950.34 |
| 2026-04-07 | 812 | $131.64 | $106,891.68 |
| 2026-04-06 | 37,418 | $130.52 | $4.9M |
| 2026-04-02 | 94,465 | $128.38 | $12.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 5,832 | $129.35 | $754,369.2 |
| 2026-03-24 | 15,671 | $127.19 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-23 | 92,897 | $126.92 | $11.8M |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,500 | $126.02 | $315,050 |
| 2026-03-13 | 122,789 | $120.26 | $14.8M |
| 2026-03-06 | 388,215 | $116.82 | $45.4M |
| 2026-03-05 | 391,895 | $115.65 | $45.3M |
| 2026-03-02 | 500 | $113.46 | $56,730 |
| 2026-02-26 | 11 | $110.01 | $1,210.11 |
| 2026-02-18 | 18,615 | $108.78 | $2.0M |
| 2026-02-13 | 3,344 | $110.83 | $370,615.52 |
| 2026-02-10 | 11 | $108.70 | $1,195.7 |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,528 | $104.23 | $159,263.44 |
| 2026-01-30 | 5,530 | $102.80 | $568,484 |
| 2026-01-20 | 425,914 | $98.19 | $41.8M |
| 2026-01-16 | 24,060 | $98.93 | $2.4M |
| 2026-01-15 | 24,819 | $100.34 | $2.5M |
| 2026-01-14 | 25,560 | $96.46 | $2.5M |
| 2026-01-12 | 7,954 | $97.51 | $775,594.54 |
| 2026-01-05 | 26 | $96.70 | $2,514.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EOG | 0.854 | 0.822 | High co-movement |
| DVN | 0.835 | 0.790 | High co-movement |
| FANG | 0.817 | 0.774 | High co-movement |
| XOM | 0.804 | 0.761 | High co-movement |
| CVX | 0.803 | 0.758 | High co-movement |
| MUR | 0.789 | 0.728 | High co-movement |
| OXY | 0.788 | 0.736 | High co-movement |
| APA | 0.782 | 0.719 | High co-movement |
| PTEN | 0.731 | 0.646 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare COP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.