APA Corporation (APA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 8.5x earnings — a 76% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — APA is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.7. DCF fair value of $217 implies 449% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of APA Corporation presents a compelling divergence between operational cash generation and balance sheet leverage. A substantial ROIC-WACC spread of 8.1% indicates that the firm generates returns significantly above its cost of capital, driven primarily by high net margins at 16.1% rather than asset turnover or financial leverage alone. This profitability is reinforced by a robust Beneish M-Score of -3.70 and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, suggesting earnings quality remains intact despite revenue contraction of 8.4%. However, the DuPont decomposition reveals an equity multiplier of 2.54x coupled with an Altman Z-Score of only 1.6, signaling that while margins drive returns, elevated leverage introduces financial fragility amidst shrinking top-line growth.
Valuation metrics highlight a significant disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from fundamental cash flows. Trading at 10.5x earnings compared to the sector average of 31.4x, the stock appears deeply undervalued relative to peers, with a DCF model implying fair value at $178, or approximately 319% upside. This wide valuation gap reflects market skepticism regarding the implied negative free cash flow growth rate of -2.4% over the next decade and concerns about the company's ability to sustain profitability without revenue expansion. The pricing structure effectively penalizes the current earnings decline while ignoring the high return on invested capital, creating a scenario where downside protection is theoretically low if leverage compresses margins further.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators suggest strong historical alpha generation but introduce specific behavioral risks through insider activity. With an annual Fama-French Alpha of 12.79%, the stock has historically outperformed its factor benchmarks, supported by positive tilts in both value (HML: 1.301) and robust profitability (RMW: 0.619). Yet, this momentum is currently offset by $833,373 in net insider selling over the past ninety days, a signal that management may view the current valuation or future cash flow trajectory differently than external models suggest. The synthesis of high alpha potential against active insider distribution and elevated leverage creates an asymmetric risk profile where theoretical upside relies heavily on mean reversion in revenue trends rather than immediate operational recovery.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7% | 9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $227 | $177 | $121 |
| 3% | $298 | $217 | $139 |
| 4% | $440 | $284 | $164 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $37.81.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $217 (+449.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 2% above its 5-year average P/E of 9.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAPA Corporation is currently trading at $38.98, a level that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value. Without specific band boundaries or historical volatility metrics provided in the dataset, it remains impossible to determine whether this price point represents an extreme deviation from the mean or aligns closely with recent trend averages. In technical analysis, prices significantly distant from their simple moving average often signal a potential pullback toward statistical equilibrium, whereas those nestled within narrow bands may indicate sustained momentum or consolidation. The absence of directional data prevents any definitive conclusion regarding whether the current valuation is stretched to an extent that invites mean reversion or if it supports the existing trajectory. The energy sector backdrop adds a layer of macroeconomic complexity, as commodity prices and operational costs frequently drive short-term price swings independent of internal technical structures. At $38.98, the stock's position relative to its own historical norms is indeterminate without further envelope data, leaving open the possibility that current pricing reflects either an overextended move awaiting correction or a stable equilibrium supported by underlying fundamentals. Observers might note that extreme deviations from moving averages historically precede reversals, yet confirming such a status requires precise distance measurements not present here. Consequently, the technical picture remains ambiguous regarding immediate mean-reversion potential, as the relationship between current pricing and statistical norms cannot be quantified with the available information.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-19 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-19 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-20 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-20 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XOP or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell APA shares regardless of APA Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to APA through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in APA Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If APA Corporation (APA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with APA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
APA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 4 APA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
APA Corporation (APA) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.0% of the XOP (XOP) and 1.7% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 86M shares (24.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest APA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
APA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for APA Corporation over the past year sits near $24.49 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $37.81 trades 54.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
APA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does APA Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
APA Corporation converts 33% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 67% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 8.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 156,935 | $38.30 | $6.0M |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,656 | $40.73 | $67,448.88 |
| 2026-04-30 | 13 | $40.32 | $524.16 |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,822 | $37.73 | $68,744.06 |
| 2026-04-23 | 4,951 | $38.06 | $188,435.06 |
| 2026-04-22 | 3,000 | $37.60 | $112,800 |
| 2026-04-20 | 18,228 | $35.74 | $651,468.72 |
| 2026-04-17 | 7,656 | $37.90 | $290,162.4 |
| 2026-04-16 | 587 | $36.60 | $21,484.2 |
| 2026-04-15 | 17 | $37.03 | $629.51 |
| 2026-04-08 | 1,690 | $42.96 | $72,602.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 10,505 | $43.02 | $451,925.1 |
| 2026-04-02 | 16,670 | $41.35 | $689,304.5 |
| 2026-04-01 | 38,856 | $42.44 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-27 | 21,905 | $42.80 | $937,534 |
| 2026-03-25 | 35 | $40.80 | $1,428 |
| 2026-03-24 | 150 | $39.03 | $5,854.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | 4,544 | $39.11 | $177,715.84 |
| 2026-03-18 | 650 | $35.87 | $23,315.5 |
| 2026-03-11 | 2,833 | $31.82 | $90,146.06 |
| 2026-03-09 | 400 | $32.68 | $13,072 |
| 2026-03-04 | 29,282 | $31.85 | $932,631.7 |
| 2026-03-03 | 53,759 | $31.69 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-23 | 69,316 | $29.06 | $2.0M |
| 2026-02-19 | 37,901 | $28.61 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-10 | 1 | $27.49 | $27.49 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1 | $27.46 | $27.46 |
| 2026-02-05 | 70,235 | $27.38 | $1.9M |
| 2026-02-04 | 25 | $26.46 | $661.5 |
| 2026-01-30 | 4,681 | $26.26 | $122,923.06 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MUR | 0.813 | 0.796 | High co-movement |
| OXY | 0.812 | 0.737 | High co-movement |
| DVN | 0.806 | 0.747 | High co-movement |
| FANG | 0.800 | 0.788 | High co-movement |
| COP | 0.782 | 0.719 | High co-movement |
| EOG | 0.764 | 0.738 | High co-movement |
| PTEN | 0.707 | 0.610 | High co-movement |
| XOM | 0.693 | 0.668 | Moderate |
| CVX | 0.683 | 0.606 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare APA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.