Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.4x earnings — a 64% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — DVN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.5. DCF fair value of $65 implies 37% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Devon Energy Corporation exhibit a distinct capital allocation profile characterized by robust profitability rather than aggressive growth. The company generates returns on invested capital that exceed its cost of capital by 360 basis points, indicating efficient value creation within the energy sector. This efficiency is primarily driven by high net margins at 15.4%, which outweigh asset turnover and leverage in the DuPont decomposition of a 17% return on equity. Qualitative risk metrics present a mixed picture; while the Beneish M-Score of -3.05 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places the firm in a gray zone for potential distress, and a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects moderate financial strength without recent significant deterioration.
Valuation metrics reveal a substantial divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow analysis. Trading at a forward P/E multiple of 11.9x compared to the sector average of 31.4x, the stock appears significantly undervalued relative to peers. The DCF model implies a fair value that suggests approximately 15.8% upside potential, yet this valuation is anchored by an implied free cash flow growth rate of -3.2% over ten years, highlighting market skepticism regarding long-term expansion capabilities despite strong current profitability factors like RMW and HML tilts.
Risk-adjusted performance data indicates the stock has underperformed relative to standard factor models recently, with a Fama-French alpha of -11.06% annually. This negative alpha persists even as value and robustness factors remain positive, suggesting recent pricing inefficiencies or temporary dislocation rather than structural flaws in the business model. With neutral insider flow over the last ninety days, there is no immediate signal of management conviction shifting either way, leaving investors to weigh the attractive valuation multiple against the subdued growth expectations embedded in current pricing.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.3% | 9.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $73 | $53 | $37 |
| 3% | $96 | $65 | $42 |
| 4% | $142 | $83 | $49 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $46.22.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $65 (+36.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 25% above its 5-year average P/E of 9.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDevon Energy Corporation is currently trading at $49.69, a price point that sits within the broader context of energy sector volatility. The technical landscape presents mixed signals regarding institutional positioning; short-term momentum indicators suggest potential distribution if recent upward moves fail to sustain volume support, while longer-term moving averages may still be aligned in an uptrend depending on their specific lag periods. This divergence often indicates that larger market participants are either taking profits after a rally or accumulating shares quietly during consolidation phases where price action lacks decisive direction. Volume trends appear critical here, as any significant price movement without corresponding volume spikes could imply retail-driven activity rather than institutional conviction. If the stock were to breach key support levels with high volume, it might signal that sophisticated traders are exiting positions aggressively, whereas a strong breakout accompanied by rising volumes would suggest renewed interest from major players seeking exposure to energy assets. The current setup reflects a transitional state where larger entities seem cautious, waiting for clearer confirmation before committing significant capital in either direction. Ultimately, the interplay between price action and volume suggests that institutional behavior is currently characterized by hesitation or selective trading rather than broad-based accumulation or distribution. Market participants should monitor whether future price movements are backed by substantial order flow to determine if larger players view this valuation as a long-term opportunity or merely a temporary pause in a broader trend.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.2400 | +9.1% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.2200 | -50.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.4400 | +25.7% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.3500 | -20.5% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.4400 | -42.9% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.7700 | +57.1% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.4900 | -31.9% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.7200 | -19.1% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or XOP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DVN shares regardless of Devon Energy Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to DVN through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Devon Energy Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with DVN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DVN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 DVN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.0% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 2.7% of the XOP (XOP). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 126M shares (10.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DVN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DVN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Devon Energy Corporation over the past year sits near $32.95 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $46.22 trades 40.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DVN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Devon Energy Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Devon Energy Corporation converts 37% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 63% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 4.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 456 | $46.77 | $21,327.12 |
| 2026-05-11 | 87,933 | $45.61 | $4.0M |
| 2026-05-08 | 12,253,422 | $45.31 | $555.2M |
| 2026-05-07 | 5,239 | $46.60 | $244,137.4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 975 | $51.37 | $50,085.75 |
| 2026-04-30 | 14,957 | $51.08 | $764,003.56 |
| 2026-04-23 | 75,733 | $47.12 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-21 | 300 | $44.94 | $13,482 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,922 | $44.23 | $129,240.06 |
| 2026-04-17 | 269 | $45.78 | $12,314.82 |
| 2026-04-16 | 26 | $45.23 | $1,175.98 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $45.25 | $271.5 |
| 2026-04-14 | 23,821 | $47.27 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-09 | 966 | $47.91 | $46,281.06 |
| 2026-04-08 | 966 | $49.95 | $48,251.7 |
| 2026-04-07 | 6,630 | $49.65 | $329,179.5 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19,935 | $49.49 | $986,583.15 |
| 2026-04-02 | 4,604 | $48.59 | $223,708.36 |
| 2026-04-01 | 3,184 | $50.32 | $160,218.88 |
| 2026-03-30 | 500 | $52.07 | $26,035 |
| 2026-03-25 | 67,157 | $50.27 | $3.4M |
| 2026-03-23 | 13,900 | $48.66 | $676,374 |
| 2026-03-20 | 9,489 | $48.79 | $462,968.31 |
| 2026-03-13 | 39,375 | $46.19 | $1.8M |
| 2026-02-23 | 2,555,549 | $44.39 | $113.4M |
| 2026-02-17 | 300 | $44.66 | $13,398 |
| 2026-02-13 | 108 | $43.96 | $4,747.68 |
| 2026-02-09 | 300 | $43.81 | $13,143 |
| 2026-02-05 | 1,754 | $43.39 | $76,106.06 |
| 2026-02-03 | 51,923 | $40.14 | $2.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| FANG | 0.867 | 0.836 | High co-movement |
| EOG | 0.847 | 0.841 | High co-movement |
| COP | 0.835 | 0.790 | High co-movement |
| OXY | 0.814 | 0.754 | High co-movement |
| APA | 0.806 | 0.747 | High co-movement |
| MUR | 0.767 | 0.702 | High co-movement |
| XOM | 0.738 | 0.692 | High co-movement |
| CVX | 0.719 | 0.609 | High co-movement |
| PTEN | 0.692 | 0.554 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DVN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.