Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCHRD trades at 199.3x earnings — a 473% premium to its sector average of 34.8x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.7.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Chord Energy Corporation reveal a stark disconnect between operational efficiency and shareholder returns, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread that is effectively negative given the 2.2% return on invested capital. This weak profitability profile stems from negligible operating leverage; while gross margins sit at 17.8%, net margins have contracted to just 0.9%, dragging down a DuPont-decomposed ROE of merely 0.5%. The low asset turnover of 0.37x indicates inefficient utilization of the capital base, and this operational frailty is reinforced by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, signaling deteriorating financial health alongside negative revenue growth of -7.1% year-over-year. Although the Beneish M-Score of -3.43 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, it cannot offset the structural inability to generate value above the cost of capital in this energy sector context.
Valuation metrics present a severe premium that appears fundamentally unjustified by current performance or intrinsic worth. The stock trades at 199.3x forward P/E, which is more than six times the sector average of 31.0x, implying exorbitant expectations for future growth that are not supported by recent revenue contraction or margin compression. This disconnect highlights a significant gap between market pricing and calculated fair value; while the DCF model assigns a fair value of $116 per share based on implied growth assumptions, the current multiple suggests the market is pricing in a transformation to high-margin utility-like cash flows that have yet to materialize. The combination of such an elevated valuation with negative revenue momentum creates a precarious setup where any further operational miss could precipitate a rapid re-rating downward toward mean sector multiples.
Risk factors are exacerbated by active insider selling, which has totaled $3,520,744 over the last 90 days, potentially signaling management's lack of confidence in near-term prospects or liquidity constraints. While no Fama-French alpha data was provided to assess style-based performance, the convergence of high leverage (equity multiplier of 1.62x), falling revenues, and substantial insider outflows points to a heightened downside risk profile. The market appears to be pricing in an aggressive recovery narrative that contradicts the current trajectory of declining sales and thin net margins, leaving investors exposed if operational improvements fail to materialize within the valuation's implicit timeframe.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $151 | $100 | $73 |
| 3% | $191 | $116 | $81 |
| 4% | $263 | $140 | $92 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $137.99.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $116 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedChord Energy Corporation is currently trading at $149.65, a level that sits significantly above its historical valuation ranges given the company's operational profile within the energy sector. This substantial premium suggests that recent price action has been driven by strong fundamental catalysts or speculative momentum rather than gradual technical accumulation. The current market pricing implies an expectation of sustained high growth and successful capital deployment from the firm's acquisition activities, yet such elevated valuations inherently compress downside buffers while amplifying sensitivity to any shift in execution risk or commodity headwinds. The disconnect between this aggressive price level and typical utility-scale energy stock metrics indicates that momentum is likely fragile rather than structural. In an environment where volatility can spike rapidly on news of regulatory changes or project delays, the current setup exposes significant drawdown potential if earnings fail to justify the steep multiple expansion seen recently. The technical picture reflects a market willing to pay for future certainty at a premium today, meaning any erosion in confidence regarding Chord's ability to integrate assets or manage debt could trigger sharp corrections that are difficult to navigate without immediate margin calls or liquidity constraints. Ultimately, the risk dynamics here favor caution as the gap between current prices and historical norms creates a precarious balance sheet scenario for long-term holders. While the sector backdrop may support continued interest in independent power producers, the specific technical configuration of CHRD suggests that gains achieved so far are vulnerable to rapid reversals if fundamental underpinnings do not materialize exactly as priced. Market participants must weigh
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-19 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-21 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-21 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-11 | $1.3000 | -9.7% |
| 2024-11-27 | $1.4400 | -42.9% |
| 2024-08-21 | $2.5200 | -14.3% |
| 2024-05-21 | $2.9400 | -9.5% |
| 2024-03-04 | $3.2500 | +30.0% |
| 2023-11-13 | $2.5000 | +83.8% |
| 2023-08-14 | $1.3600 | -57.8% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XOP or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CHRD shares regardless of Chord Energy Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $678M of passive capital is structurally linked to CHRD through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CHRD's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Chord Energy Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CHRD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CHRD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 CHRD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.9% of the XOP (XOP) and 0.5% of the MDYV (MDYV). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (8.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CHRD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CHRD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Chord Energy Corporation over the past year sits near $101.38 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $137.99 trades 36.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CHRD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Chord Energy Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Chord Energy Corporation converts 39% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 61% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 26 | $142.01 | $3,692.26 |
| 2026-05-11 | 6 | $136.44 | $818.64 |
| 2026-05-08 | 124 | $137.75 | $17,081 |
| 2026-05-06 | 18 | $149.16 | $2,684.88 |
| 2026-05-05 | 8,884 | $149.25 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-30 | 37,290 | $146.12 | $5.4M |
| 2026-04-17 | 814 | $133.99 | $109,067.86 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2,030 | $134.93 | $273,907.9 |
| 2026-03-30 | 78 | $145.35 | $11,337.3 |
| 2026-03-25 | 125 | $136.99 | $17,123.75 |
| 2026-03-16 | 122 | $123.45 | $15,060.9 |
| 2026-03-12 | 22,949 | $124.80 | $2.9M |
| 2026-03-11 | 1,627 | $119.03 | $193,661.81 |
| 2026-03-09 | 3,279 | $121.36 | $397,939.44 |
| 2026-03-06 | 3,361 | $119.29 | $400,933.69 |
| 2026-03-03 | 331 | $113.32 | $37,508.92 |
| 2026-03-02 | 86 | $108.37 | $9,319.82 |
| 2026-02-26 | 170 | $103.70 | $17,629 |
| 2026-02-24 | 39 | $105.25 | $4,104.75 |
| 2026-02-23 | 9,870 | $105.38 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-20 | 264 | $104.99 | $27,717.36 |
| 2026-02-13 | 66 | $99.44 | $6,563.04 |
| 2026-02-12 | 48 | $104.16 | $4,999.68 |
| 2026-02-04 | 3,536 | $97.42 | $344,477.12 |
| 2026-01-29 | 1,469 | $98.16 | $144,197.04 |
| 2026-01-28 | 8,389 | $98.04 | $822,457.56 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2 | $95.53 | $191.06 |
| 2026-01-23 | 131 | $94.85 | $12,425.35 |
| 2026-01-21 | 4 | $91.92 | $367.68 |
| 2026-01-15 | 4 | $94.51 | $378.04 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare CHRD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.