EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.1x earnings — a 62% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — EOG is in the lower valuation range. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. DCF fair value of $83 implies 39% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of EOG Resources demonstrates a robust ROIC-WACC spread of +3.9%, indicating that the firm generates returns well above its cost of capital, yet this economic moat is counterbalanced by deteriorating operational momentum as evidenced by a negative revenue growth rate of -3.4%. While DuPont decomposition reveals an earnings engine driven primarily by exceptional net margins at 22.1% rather than asset turnover or leverage, the Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals significant fundamental weakness compared to its Altman Z-Score of 3.7 and Beneish M-Score of -2.92, which collectively suggest potential earnings management risks despite the current profitability profile.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models; trading at a P/E multiple of 15.7x against a sector average of 24.0x implies a discount that conflicts with a DCF fair value estimate suggesting -36.8% downside to the current price level. This discrepancy arises because the market appears to be pricing in an implied free cash flow growth rate of merely 3.7% over ten years, failing to fully account for the company's robust profitability factor (RMW) alpha of 0.300 while simultaneously penalizing its value tilt exposure with a negative Fama-French alpha of -21.99%.
Recent insider activity reinforces this cautious outlook, as net selling totaling $1,294,709 over the last ninety days aligns with the algorithmic signals pointing to limited near-term upside potential. The convergence of declining top-line revenue, a low Piotroski score, and significant internal capital outflow creates a risk profile where the apparent valuation discount may reflect genuine structural challenges rather than temporary market inefficiency, leaving investors to weigh whether the margin-driven ROE can sustain itself against these headwinds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $100 | $70 | $50 |
| 3% | $130 | $83 | $57 |
| 4% | $190 | $103 | $65 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $138.58.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $83 (-39.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 2% above its 5-year average P/E of 14.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEOG Resources is currently trading at $141.63, a position that requires contextual analysis against its moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction and momentum strength. Without specific average values provided in the dataset, it remains unclear whether the current price action sustains an uptrend or faces resistance below key long-term benchmarks. The Relative Strength Index offers critical insight into short-term velocity; however, absent a numerical reading, one cannot definitively classify the stock as overbought or oversold based solely on this snapshot. In energy sectors like EOG's, prices often oscillate around these averages during periods of market consolidation, making the relationship between the current level and recent historical closes essential for gauging immediate directional bias. The absence of explicit moving average crossovers in the provided data prevents a clear assessment of whether bullish or bearish momentum is currently dominating the chart structure. Typically, when price hovers near these lines, it signals indecision among market participants, whereas sustained movement above or below them indicates stronger conviction in future directionality. Similarly, while RSI values usually guide expectations for potential reversals or continuations, a missing specific figure here leaves short-term momentum ambiguous. Investors must weigh the current $141.63 level against known support and resistance zones derived from recent price history to infer if the asset is entering a phase of accumulation or distribution. Ultimately, this technical snapshot highlights the necessity of integrating additional data points regarding average deviations and oscillator readings before forming a
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | $1.0200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-16 | $1.0200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-17 | $1.0200 | +4.6% |
| 2025-07-17 | $0.9750 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-16 | $0.9750 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-17 | $0.9750 | +7.1% |
| 2024-10-17 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-17 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-15 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-16 | $0.9100 | -39.3% |
| 2023-12-14 | $1.5000 | +81.8% |
| 2023-10-16 | $0.8250 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or IYE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EOG shares regardless of EOG Resources, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $12.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to EOG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in EOG Resources, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with EOG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 36 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EOG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 EOG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.2% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 3.6% of the IYE (IYE). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 94M shares (17.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest EOG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EOG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for EOG Resources, Inc. over the past year sits near $104.47 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $138.58 trades 32.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EOG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does EOG Resources, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
EOG Resources, Inc. converts 31% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 69% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 4,123 | $134.93 | $556,316.39 |
| 2026-05-13 | 16,785 | $134.13 | $2.3M |
| 2026-05-11 | 43,922 | $130.03 | $5.7M |
| 2026-05-04 | 979 | $138.95 | $136,032.05 |
| 2026-04-29 | 42 | $135.78 | $5,702.76 |
| 2026-04-28 | 401 | $133.22 | $53,421.22 |
| 2026-04-21 | 104 | $129.16 | $13,432.64 |
| 2026-04-16 | 200 | $132.39 | $26,478 |
| 2026-04-15 | 5,913 | $133.59 | $789,917.67 |
| 2026-04-10 | 6,007 | $136.58 | $820,436.06 |
| 2026-04-09 | 38 | $139.05 | $5,283.9 |
| 2026-04-01 | 11,450 | $144.57 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-30 | 25,419 | $149.56 | $3.8M |
| 2026-03-25 | 54 | $142.53 | $7,696.62 |
| 2026-03-24 | 492 | $139.68 | $68,722.56 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6,235 | $138.73 | $864,981.55 |
| 2026-03-20 | 32,604 | $138.82 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-13 | 101,384 | $133.04 | $13.5M |
| 2026-03-12 | 30,290 | $132.51 | $4.0M |
| 2026-03-10 | 25,849 | $131.67 | $3.4M |
| 2026-03-09 | 56,990 | $131.41 | $7.5M |
| 2026-03-05 | 52 | $127.82 | $6,646.64 |
| 2026-03-03 | 330 | $128.65 | $42,454.5 |
| 2026-02-23 | 100 | $123.08 | $12,308 |
| 2026-02-12 | 6,826 | $118.22 | $806,969.72 |
| 2026-02-02 | 344 | $112.13 | $38,572.72 |
| 2026-01-30 | 3,366 | $112.08 | $377,261.28 |
| 2026-01-21 | 20,608 | $106.21 | $2.2M |
| 2026-01-16 | 14,500 | $108.02 | $1.6M |
| 2026-01-15 | 2,500 | $110.74 | $276,850 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COP | 0.854 | 0.822 | High co-movement |
| DVN | 0.847 | 0.841 | High co-movement |
| FANG | 0.807 | 0.780 | High co-movement |
| OXY | 0.780 | 0.764 | High co-movement |
| APA | 0.764 | 0.738 | High co-movement |
| XOM | 0.757 | 0.705 | High co-movement |
| CVX | 0.744 | 0.691 | High co-movement |
| MUR | 0.723 | 0.636 | High co-movement |
| SU | 0.705 | 0.614 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EOG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.