ATI Inc. (ATI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicATI trades at 57.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 6.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $14 implies 92% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of ATI Inc. reveal a company with robust capital efficiency and high-quality earnings, underscored by an ROIC-WACC spread that suggests value creation potential despite moderate revenue growth of 5.2% year-over-year. The DuPont decomposition indicates that the 21.1% return on equity is primarily driven by significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.66x) rather than operational expansion, as asset turnover remains constrained at 0.90x while net margins hold steady at 8.8%. This structural reliance on debt amplifies returns but introduces sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, a nuance further highlighted by the strong integrity signals from an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.75, which collectively suggest earnings are unlikely to be materially manipulated despite the aggressive valuation multiple.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence between historical norms and intrinsic value calculations. Trading at a forward P/E of 51.6x compared to a sector average of 44.2x implies that the market is pricing in growth expectations significantly higher than current revenue trends support, creating a potential mean-reversion risk if top-line acceleration falters. This premium is starkly contrasted by a DCF-derived fair value estimate of $15, which suggests the current market price may be detached from discounted cash flow fundamentals unless implied future growth rates substantially exceed conservative assumptions required to justify such a high multiple.
Risk assessment data points toward potential insider divergence and elevated valuation risk. While the balance sheet quality scores are favorable, the net insider selling of approximately $9.76 million over the last 90 days introduces a counter-narrative that may signal management's view on near-term liquidity or stock price trajectory relative to their own compensation interests. This activity, combined with the wide gap between current multiples and DCF fair value, warrants close monitoring as it could indicate heightened sensitivity if growth fails to materialize at the rates currently embedded in the share price.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $18 | $12 | $8 |
| 3% | $21 | $14 | $9 |
| 4% | $27 | $16 | $10 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $178.48.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $14 (-91.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 144% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current trading environment for ATI Inc. presents a complex picture where price action at $153.73 sits within the context of broader industrial sector dynamics. While specific drawdown metrics and volatility figures are not explicitly detailed in the provided snapshot, the isolation of this single data point suggests that any observed momentum is difficult to characterize as either structurally robust or inherently fragile without a comparative analysis of recent price ranges and volume profiles. The absence of explicit risk indicators such as maximum drawdown percentages or standard deviation measures means the stability of the current level cannot be definitively assessed; it may represent a temporary consolidation phase rather than a confirmed trend shift, particularly given the sector's sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds that often compress valuations in industrials. The fundamental backdrop for industrial equities frequently introduces volatility that can decouple technical patterns from underlying earnings power, creating scenarios where price movements appear decisive but lack deep structural support. Without data on moving average trends or relative strength indices, the observed level of $153.73 remains an isolated coordinate rather than a signal of directional certainty. This limitation highlights a critical gap in understanding whether recent fluctuations are driven by genuine value reassessment or merely short-term liquidity noise amplified by sector-wide uncertainty. Consequently, any interpretation of momentum at this juncture must remain cautious, acknowledging that the interplay between current pricing and unseen volatility metrics could easily result in a reversal if fundamental pressures intensify further within the industrial complex.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-08-16 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2016-05-25 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2016-03-09 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2015-12-17 | $0.0800 | -55.6% |
| 2015-08-17 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2015-05-22 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2015-03-09 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2014-12-12 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2014-08-18 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2014-06-03 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2014-03-10 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2013-12-18 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XAR or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ATI shares regardless of ATI Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to ATI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in ATI Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If ATI Inc. (ATI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with ATI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 14 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ATI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 ATI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
ATI Inc. (ATI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the XAR (XAR) and 1.2% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 14 tracked ETFs, approximately 14M shares (10.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ATI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ATI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for ATI Inc. over the past year sits near $84.53 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $178.48 trades 111.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ATI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does ATI Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
ATI Inc. converts 42% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 58% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 4 | $164.66 | $658.64 |
| 2026-04-14 | 8,479 | $163.78 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-13 | 8,490 | $162.21 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-08 | 7,513 | $147.28 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-26 | 2,919 | $149.00 | $434,931 |
| 2026-03-24 | 770 | $146.38 | $112,712.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | 380 | $150.09 | $57,034.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | 6,837 | $154.18 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-02 | 85 | $163.59 | $13,905.15 |
| 2026-02-27 | 8,822 | $163.55 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-23 | 2,126 | $158.87 | $337,757.62 |
| 2026-02-04 | 89 | $128.34 | $11,422.26 |
| 2026-01-20 | 3,547 | $124.35 | $441,069.45 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2,500 | $113.28 | $283,200 |
| 2025-12-05 | 65 | $100.40 | $6,526 |
| 2025-12-03 | 39 | $98.66 | $3,847.74 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2,000 | $96.47 | $192,940 |
| 2025-11-14 | 10 | $98.56 | $985.6 |
| 2025-10-29 | 1,808 | $98.53 | $178,142.24 |
| 2025-10-28 | 12,327 | $91.71 | $1.1M |
| 2025-10-27 | 7 | $89.25 | $624.75 |
| 2025-10-20 | 1,634 | $80.33 | $131,259.22 |
| 2025-10-16 | 1,847 | $83.32 | $153,892.04 |
| 2025-10-14 | 9,456 | $82.98 | $784,658.88 |
| 2025-10-08 | 1,589 | $83.51 | $132,697.39 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CRS | 0.721 | 0.725 | High co-movement |
| HWM | 0.710 | 0.702 | High co-movement |
| WWD | 0.588 | 0.652 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.562 | 0.711 | Moderate |
| PWR | 0.555 | 0.570 | Moderate |
| GE | 0.518 | 0.651 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.498 | 0.607 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.491 | 0.622 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.489 | 0.579 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ATI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.