GE Aerospace (GE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicGE trades at 40.2x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.3. DCF fair value of $140 implies 55% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics present a stark dichotomy between high-margin profitability and capital efficiency constraints. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that Return on Equity is driven primarily by significant leverage (6.89x equity multiplier) rather than organic margin expansion or asset turnover, the negative ROIC-WACC spread of -3.3% indicates value destruction relative to the cost of capital. This inefficiency is compounded by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 3.3, suggesting moderate financial distress risk despite strong revenue growth of 18.5%. The Beneish M-Score of -2.26 offers some reassurance regarding earnings quality, yet the reliance on leverage to achieve a 46.1% ROE while generating negative spread returns questions the sustainability of current equity creation.
Valuation metrics appear disconnected from intrinsic value models and sector peers alike. Trading at 35.0x forward P/E, the stock commands a premium above the industrials sector average of 32.1x, even as the DCF model implies significant downside with a fair value estimate that suggests -48.9% potential loss relative to current pricing. This valuation disconnect persists despite an aggressive implied free cash flow growth assumption of 22.9% over ten years; if actual performance deviates from this high-growth trajectory, multiple compression could exacerbate the gap between market price and DCF-derived value. The negative Profitability Factor (RMW) score further signals that recent earnings quality may not justify such elevated multiples compared to historical or peer benchmarks.
Risk factors introduce additional volatility considerations amidst mixed risk factor exposures. Although the stock exhibits a strong Fama-French alpha of 34.45% and a positive value tilt with an HML score of 0.175, these anomalies are offset by weak profitability signals and concerning insider activity showing $11.7 million in net selling over the last ninety days. The combination of negative capital spread, leverage-dependent returns, and active insider divestiture suggests that current market pricing may be overly optimistic regarding future risk-adjusted returns, leaving investors exposed to potential mean reversion if growth assumptions fail to materialize.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 18% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11% | 13% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $163 | $129 | $106 |
| 3% | $180 | $140 | $113 |
| 4% | $201 | $152 | $121 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $317.72.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $140 (-55.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 28% above its 5-year average P/E of 30.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical landscape for GE Aerospace suggests a complex interplay between short-term volatility and longer-term structural positioning. With the stock trading at $300.17, attention to moving average crossovers reveals potential shifts in momentum that larger market participants might be monitoring closely. If shorter-term averages are crossing below their longer-term counterparts while volume remains subdued or declining, this pattern often indicates a lack of institutional accumulation and could signal cautious positioning by major players who typically wait for clearer confirmation before deploying significant capital. Conversely, if price action is holding above key moving average supports despite recent fluctuations, it may imply that institutions view the current level as an attractive entry zone within their existing risk parameters. Volume trends serve as a critical lens through which to interpret these price movements; any divergence between rising prices and falling volume might suggest that institutional buying interest is waning or being absorbed by passive sellers. In contrast, surges in trading activity accompanied by upward price breaks often correlate with increased institutional involvement, potentially signaling the initiation of larger position building phases. The absence of definitive directional signals means that while some entities may be accumulating shares on dips, others could be utilizing rallies to trim exposure. Ultimately, the technical setup reflects a market where large-cap investors are likely assessing whether the current valuation supports further upside or warrants defensive posturing, with their collective actions yet to manifest as a unanimous consensus in price direction.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | $0.4700 | +30.6% |
| 2025-12-29 | $0.3600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-29 | $0.3600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-07 | $0.3600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.3600 | +28.6% |
| 2024-12-27 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-26 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-11 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-12 | $0.2800 | +338.5% |
| 2023-12-27 | $0.0638 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-25 | $0.0638 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-10 | $0.0638 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ITA or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GE shares regardless of GE Aerospace's individual fundamentals. We estimate $36.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to GE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in GE Aerospace to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If GE Aerospace (GE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies RTX Corp (RTX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with GE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 GE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
GE Aerospace (GE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 19.4% of the ITA (ITA) and 6.0% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 120M shares (11.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for GE Aerospace over the past year sits near $298.26 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $317.72 trades 6.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does GE Aerospace convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
GE Aerospace converts 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 5 | $297.45 | $1,487.25 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,199 | $297.15 | $356,282.85 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,327 | $286.68 | $380,424.36 |
| 2026-05-01 | 164 | $289.93 | $47,548.52 |
| 2026-04-30 | 100 | $283.57 | $28,357 |
| 2026-04-27 | 4,228 | $284.60 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-21 | 200 | $303.60 | $60,720 |
| 2026-04-20 | 200 | $304.13 | $60,826 |
| 2026-04-17 | 5,000 | $298.29 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $318.00 | $1,908 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,100 | $308.35 | $339,185 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,246 | $308.06 | $383,842.76 |
| 2026-04-08 | 5 | $288.60 | $1,443 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17,822 | $288.69 | $5.1M |
| 2026-04-06 | 35,180 | $281.16 | $9.9M |
| 2026-04-01 | 7 | $283.77 | $1,986.39 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,878 | $291.61 | $547,643.58 |
| 2026-03-19 | 105 | $300.96 | $31,600.8 |
| 2026-03-11 | 1,466 | $326.52 | $478,678.32 |
| 2026-03-10 | 53,640 | $321.93 | $17.3M |
| 2026-03-05 | 1,088 | $339.81 | $369,713.28 |
| 2026-03-04 | 174 | $334.14 | $58,140.36 |
| 2026-03-02 | 200 | $342.26 | $68,452 |
| 2026-02-23 | 3 | $343.22 | $1,029.66 |
| 2026-02-18 | 35,837 | $327.08 | $11.7M |
| 2026-02-10 | 1 | $316.74 | $316.74 |
| 2026-02-09 | 4,196 | $321.00 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,026 | $306.79 | $314,766.54 |
| 2026-01-23 | 22 | $295.00 | $6,490 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,000 | $325.12 | $325,120 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| HWM | 0.711 | 0.779 | High co-movement |
| HEI | 0.558 | 0.596 | Moderate |
| SARO | 0.550 | 0.594 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.538 | 0.577 | Moderate |
| ATI | 0.518 | 0.651 | Moderate |
| VSEC | 0.501 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.489 | 0.547 | Moderate |
| CRS | 0.488 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| WWD | 0.487 | 0.495 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.