SARO (SARO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicStrong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.6. DCF fair value of $5 implies 83% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency presents a distinct constraint, as the return on invested capital of 8.3% falls short of the weighted average cost of capital by 1.3%, indicating that current operations are destroying value despite robust revenue expansion of 15.8%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Beneish M-Score of -2.38 signal strong financial health and low earnings manipulation risk, this operational quality is offset by a DuPont-style reality where thin net margins of 4.6% limit leverage potential; consequently, the negative ROIC-WACC spread suggests that growth premiums are not being sufficiently capitalized into shareholder returns at present valuations.
Valuation metrics reflect a market pricing in aggressive future performance rather than current cash flow generation. The trailing P/E ratio sits marginally above its five-year average of 32.0x, implying stability in multiple compression risks despite the elevated absolute level relative to typical value benchmarks. However, discounted cash flow analysis reveals a significant divergence between current prices and intrinsic worth, with fair value estimates at $5 suggesting an implied downside of over 83% if the model's assumptions hold. This stark discrepancy highlights that the market is currently pricing in sustained free cash flow growth rates approaching 20% annually over the next decade—a trajectory that appears inconsistent with the company's current negative spread between returns and cost of capital.
The risk-reward profile exhibits a classic value trap dynamic where strong balance sheet fundamentals, evidenced by an Altman Z-Score of 2.6 indicating low bankruptcy probability, coexist with poor economic moats. Investors must weigh the safety margin provided by high profitability scores against the fundamental drag of underperforming capital efficiency and the steep valuation discount implied by DCF models. The data suggests that while the company may be financially sound in terms of solvency and earnings quality, the current pricing structure assumes a level of future growth intensity that has not yet materialized in actual returns on invested assets.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $7 | $4 | $2 |
| 3% | $9 | $5 | $2 |
| 4% | $13 | $6 | $3 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $25.14.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $5 (-83.3%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XAR or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SARO shares regardless of SARO's individual fundamentals. We estimate $335M of passive capital is structurally linked to SARO through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on SARO's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in SARO to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If SARO (SARO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with SARO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SARO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 24 SARO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
SARO (SARO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.9% of the XAR (XAR) and 0.2% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 10 tracked ETFs, approximately 14M shares (4.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest SARO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SARO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for SARO over the past year sits near $26.77 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $25.14 sits 6.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SARO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does SARO convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
SARO converts 27% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 73% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 5,590 | $25.14 | $140,532.6 |
| 2026-04-30 | 131 | $24.44 | $3,201.64 |
| 2026-04-27 | 67 | $24.54 | $1,644.18 |
| 2026-04-16 | 203 | $27.24 | $5,529.72 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,768 | $26.37 | $99,362.16 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,919 | $25.83 | $49,567.77 |
| 2026-03-30 | 5,603 | $25.46 | $142,652.38 |
| 2026-03-26 | 245 | $26.64 | $6,526.8 |
| 2026-03-23 | 67,643 | $25.60 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-19 | 136 | $27.16 | $3,693.76 |
| 2026-03-18 | 165,300 | $26.96 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-13 | 8,295 | $26.59 | $220,564.05 |
| 2026-03-12 | 191 | $28.37 | $5,418.67 |
| 2026-03-10 | 463,066 | $28.59 | $13.2M |
| 2026-03-05 | 252,000 | $30.13 | $7.6M |
| 2026-03-04 | 1,500 | $29.72 | $44,580 |
| 2026-02-26 | 43,523 | $30.83 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-25 | 228 | $31.84 | $7,259.52 |
| 2026-02-23 | 115 | $31.96 | $3,675.4 |
| 2026-02-20 | 21,170 | $31.44 | $665,584.8 |
| 2026-01-29 | 1,502 | $31.59 | $47,448.18 |
| 2026-01-23 | 16 | $32.35 | $517.6 |
| 2025-12-22 | 21,961 | $28.66 | $629,402.26 |
| 2025-12-12 | 20,487 | $27.51 | $563,597.37 |
| 2025-12-09 | 13,085 | $26.60 | $348,061 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2,865 | $24.27 | $69,533.55 |
| 2025-11-17 | 12,019 | $25.62 | $307,926.78 |
| 2025-11-12 | 4,205 | $27.27 | $114,670.35 |
| 2025-11-04 | 3,267 | $28.46 | $92,978.82 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GE | 0.550 | 0.594 | Moderate |
| HWM | 0.536 | 0.611 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.529 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| VSEC | 0.522 | 0.561 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.520 | 0.517 | Moderate |
| MC | 0.490 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.489 | 0.464 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.487 | 0.449 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.486 | 0.453 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SARO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.