RTX Corporation (RTX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicRTX trades at 33.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.8. DCF fair value of $227 suggests 13% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this Industrials leader present a compelling tension between robust operational quality and thin capital efficiency. A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and Beneish M-Score of -2.41 signal strong financial health with low earnings manipulation risk, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 2.8 indicating moderate distress safety. However, the return profile is constrained; while a DuPont decomposition reveals ROE driven primarily by leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.55x) rather than margin expansion or asset turnover efficiency, the resulting ROIC-WACC spread narrows to merely +0.4%. This minimal excess return over cost of capital suggests that despite double-digit revenue growth and healthy gross margins, the firm's ability to generate value above its financing costs is currently limited by high leverage relative to organic operational drivers.
Valuation metrics reflect a premium pricing environment where the market appears to anticipate significantly higher future performance than current fundamentals justify. Trading at 39.6x earnings versus a sector average of 32.1x, the stock commands a substantial multiple expansion that aligns with a DCF-implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 10.9% and an estimated fair value upside of 33.7%. This pricing structure implies investor confidence in sustained margin improvements or asset base optimization to bridge the gap between current low ROIC and long-term compounding expectations, effectively betting on a transition from leverage-driven returns to operational scaling.
Risk factor deltas introduce conflicting signals regarding future trajectory and ownership sentiment. While the stock exhibits significant positive momentum through an annual Fama-French Alpha of 34.38% and a slight value tilt (HML: 0.148), it simultaneously displays weakness in profitability factors (RMW: -0.223) alongside $32.6 million in net insider selling over the last ninety days. These divergent data points suggest that while relative pricing models reward the stock for outperformance, internal capital allocation and fundamental profit generation metrics warrant close monitoring as potential headwinds to realizing the high growth assumptions embedded in current valuations.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $272 | $188 | $130 |
| 3% | $359 | $227 | $148 |
| 4% | $533 | $288 | $174 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $174.26.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $227 (+12.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 3% below its 5-year average P/E of 42.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedRaytheon Technologies (RTX) is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating a strong upward trend over the past few months. The RSI reading of 54.6 suggests that while momentum is positive, it's not yet in overly bullish territory, suggesting there may still be room for the stock to move higher before facing potential resistance.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.7300 | +7.4% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-21 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.6800 | +7.9% |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.6300 | +6.8% |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ITA or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell RTX shares regardless of RTX Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $28.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to RTX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in RTX Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If RTX Corporation (RTX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies GE Aerospace (GE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with RTX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
RTX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 RTX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
RTX Corporation (RTX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 15.1% of the ITA (ITA) and 4.4% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 155M shares (11.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest RTX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
RTX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for RTX Corporation over the past year sits near $176.19 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $174.26 sits 1.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
RTX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does RTX Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
RTX Corporation converts 50% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 50% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 11,834 | $176.78 | $2.1M |
| 2026-05-05 | 120 | $172.90 | $20,748 |
| 2026-04-30 | 2,029 | $172.79 | $350,590.91 |
| 2026-04-27 | 177 | $174.26 | $30,844.02 |
| 2026-04-17 | 7,000 | $195.85 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-15 | 12 | $202.81 | $2,433.72 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,462 | $201.56 | $294,680.72 |
| 2026-04-07 | 200 | $198.41 | $39,682 |
| 2026-04-06 | 300 | $196.21 | $58,863 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,047 | $192.85 | $201,913.95 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,317 | $194.82 | $256,577.94 |
| 2026-03-17 | 202,971 | $206.06 | $41.8M |
| 2026-03-09 | 30,782 | $209.76 | $6.5M |
| 2026-03-04 | 148 | $206.52 | $30,564.96 |
| 2026-03-03 | 148 | $212.16 | $31,399.68 |
| 2026-03-02 | 200 | $202.62 | $40,524 |
| 2026-02-20 | 9,160 | $205.41 | $1.9M |
| 2026-02-13 | 705 | $201.14 | $141,803.7 |
| 2026-01-23 | 641 | $196.34 | $125,853.94 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,050 | $201.92 | $212,016 |
| 2026-01-16 | 937 | $199.83 | $187,240.71 |
| 2026-01-08 | 135 | $185.73 | $25,073.55 |
| 2026-01-07 | 182 | $190.40 | $34,652.8 |
| 2026-01-06 | 174 | $188.26 | $32,757.24 |
| 2026-01-05 | 434 | $187.25 | $81,266.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | 13 | $185.17 | $2,407.21 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2,534 | $185.68 | $470,513.12 |
| 2025-12-22 | 12,651 | $182.01 | $2.3M |
| 2025-12-19 | 2 | $178.29 | $356.58 |
| 2025-12-17 | 31 | $179.93 | $5,577.83 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NOC | 0.563 | 0.577 | Moderate |
| LHX | 0.472 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| HII | 0.413 | 0.486 | Moderate |
| HWM | 0.399 | 0.485 | Moderate |
| GD | 0.396 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| KTOS | 0.379 | 0.402 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.371 | 0.459 | Moderate |
| HEI | 0.363 | 0.442 | Moderate |
| LMT | 0.361 | 0.405 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare RTX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.