General Dynamics Corporation (GD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 21.8x earnings — a 51% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — GD is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 4.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $346 suggests 2% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedGeneral Dynamics exhibits robust fundamental quality characterized by a healthy 3.7% ROIC-WACC spread, indicating capital allocation that consistently outperforms the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals an earnings engine driven primarily by operational leverage rather than financial engineering; while the company utilizes moderate leverage at 2.23x to amplify returns, its 16.4% ROE is anchored firmly in solid net margins and steady asset turnover. This operational stability is corroborated by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 4.3, which collectively signal strong financial health with minimal distress risk or earnings manipulation concerns as suggested by the negative Beneish M-Score.
Despite these underlying strengths, current valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in significantly higher growth expectations than intrinsic models imply. Trading at a forward P/E of 22.6x versus an industrials sector average of 32.1x appears initially attractive, yet this compression must be weighed against a DCF-derived fair value that implies only 2.5% annual free cash flow growth over the next decade. The discrepancy between the current multiple and the model's implied trajectory suggests the market may be discounting future profitability or applying a stricter risk premium than historical fundamentals warrant.
The risk-reward profile presents a nuanced divergence between factor exposures and insider sentiment. While the stock demonstrates substantial momentum via an annualized Fama-French alpha of 15.22% and benefits from a positive value tilt, it simultaneously registers a weak profitability score on the RMW factor. Compounding this mixed signal is significant net insider selling totaling over $19 million in the past ninety days, which contrasts sharply with the company's high-quality balance sheet metrics. Investors must weigh whether recent executive dispositions reflect portfolio rebalancing or diminished near-term confidence amidst strong operational fundamentals and moderate valuation premiums.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $427 | $293 | $211 |
| 3% | $556 | $346 | $237 |
| 4% | $813 | $429 | $272 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $337.61.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $346 (+1.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 11% above its 5-year average P/E of 19.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedGeneral Dynamics Corporation is currently trading at $338.71 within the Industrials sector, presenting a snapshot of its recent market positioning without explicit directional guidance. The immediate technical focus involves assessing whether the current price level sits above or below key moving averages to determine the prevailing trend strength and potential momentum shifts. Observing the relationship between the spot price and these dynamic benchmarks can reveal if upward pressure is sustaining or if corrective forces are gaining traction in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical gauge for short-term momentum, indicating whether buying interest remains robust or if the asset may be approaching conditions of potential exhaustion. While specific RSI values were not provided to calculate an exact reading, the presence of this indicator suggests that traders are monitoring the pace of price appreciation relative to recent volatility. A price situated above its moving averages typically aligns with bullish momentum, whereas a position below them often signals bearish pressure or consolidation phases. Synthesizing these elements requires evaluating how closely the current $338.71 level adheres to established trend lines derived from historical data. If the price maintains a premium over significant moving averages while RSI readings remain within neutral-to-bullish territories, it implies continued upward inertia. Conversely, divergence between price action and momentum indicators could hint at an impending correction or a shift in market sentiment. Ultimately, the technical setup reflects the interplay of trend direction and short-term velocity, offering context for further analysis rather than definitive trading
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $1.5900 | +6.0% |
| 2026-01-16 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-11 | $1.5000 | +5.6% |
| 2025-01-17 | $1.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-11 | $1.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | $1.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-11 | $1.4200 | +7.6% |
| 2024-01-18 | $1.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-05 | $1.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $1.3200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like HACK or ITA, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GD shares regardless of General Dynamics Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $11.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to GD through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in General Dynamics Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If General Dynamics Corporation (GD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies GE Aerospace (GE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 GD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
General Dynamics Corporation (GD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.3% of the Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) and 4.8% of the ITA (ITA). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 32M shares (11.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for General Dynamics Corporation over the past year sits near $340.77 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $337.61 sits 0.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does General Dynamics Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
General Dynamics Corporation converts 62% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 36 | $346.46 | $12,472.56 |
| 2026-05-05 | 60 | $349.08 | $20,944.8 |
| 2026-04-20 | 5,346 | $336.29 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $339.88 | $1,019.64 |
| 2026-03-30 | 200 | $346.76 | $69,352 |
| 2026-03-25 | 25 | $346.23 | $8,655.75 |
| 2026-03-23 | 8,827 | $345.78 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-10 | 944 | $361.98 | $341,709.12 |
| 2026-02-04 | 68 | $355.31 | $24,161.08 |
| 2026-02-03 | 47 | $346.37 | $16,279.39 |
| 2026-01-27 | 7,280 | $363.54 | $2.6M |
| 2026-01-12 | 100 | $353.89 | $35,389 |
| 2025-12-22 | 9,467 | $339.36 | $3.2M |
| 2025-12-03 | 149 | $335.80 | $50,034.2 |
| 2025-12-02 | 3 | $332.38 | $997.14 |
| 2025-10-22 | 597 | $340.69 | $203,391.93 |
| 2025-10-15 | 9 | $335.50 | $3,019.5 |
| 2025-10-10 | 11 | $342.77 | $3,770.47 |
| 2025-10-08 | 1,145 | $343.43 | $393,227.35 |
| 2025-10-03 | 168 | $341.05 | $57,296.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LHX | 0.618 | 0.676 | Moderate |
| HII | 0.556 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| LDOS | 0.551 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| TXT | 0.452 | 0.440 | Moderate |
| LMT | 0.440 | 0.468 | Moderate |
| MLM | 0.433 | 0.458 | Moderate |
| J | 0.432 | 0.434 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.432 | 0.377 | Moderate |
| NOC | 0.425 | 0.594 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.