Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 25.7x earnings — a 43% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — LMT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.6. DCF fair value of $706 suggests 14% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Lockheed Martin Corporation reveal a company generating substantial value through high leverage rather than operational efficiency, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +9.3% and an Altman Z-Score of 3.7 indicating moderate distress risk despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 6/9. The DuPont decomposition highlights that the elevated Return on Equity is primarily driven by an equity multiplier of 8.90x, with net margins at 6.7% and asset turnover at 1.25x contributing less to returns than balance sheet leverage; however, this capital structure is offset by negative profitability factor signals (-0.104 RMW) and a Beneish M-Score of -2.71 suggesting low earnings manipulation risk. While the Piotroski score indicates solid financial health relative to peers, the reliance on debt financing creates sensitivity in volatile rate environments even as revenue grows at 5.6% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a divergent picture where the current P/E of 29.0x trades below the sector average of 32.1x, yet significantly exceeds implied growth expectations given the negative ten-year free cash flow projection of -2.2%. The DCF model suggests a fair value of $1,128 with an 86.6% upside premium, implying that current market pricing may be overly conservative regarding future cash generation or that the discount rate assumptions are aggressive relative to the company's ability to sustain growth without margin expansion. This discrepancy between the low P/E multiple and high DCF intrinsic value suggests the market is currently undervaluing potential long-term cash flows despite short-term headwinds in profitability factors.
Risk assessment reveals a complex alpha profile characterized by strong Fama-French performance with an annualized alpha of 31.10% and a positive value tilt (HML: 0.228), which contrasts sharply with recent insider activity showing $6,461,647 in net selling over the last ninety days. The combination of high profitability factor weakness (-0.104) alongside significant executive divestiture warrants scrutiny regarding near-term operational execution or confidence levels within management, even as the stock maintains a value-oriented classification. Investors must weigh the attractive valuation spread and historical alpha generation against the leverage-driven ROE structure and insider distribution patterns to determine if the risk-reward profile aligns with their specific portfolio objectives.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $833 | $585 | $407 |
| 3% | $1095 | $706 | $464 |
| 4% | $1618 | $896 | $542 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $513.43.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $706 (+13.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 17% above its 5-year average P/E of 24.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedLockheed Martin Corporation is currently trading at $512.77, a level that warrants close examination regarding its alignment with key moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction. Without specific average values provided in this snapshot, the immediate assessment relies on observing whether recent price action sustains itself above or falls below these critical benchmarks; a position above long-term averages typically signals an established uptrend, while a breach of shorter-term lines may indicate potential weakening momentum within the Industrials sector. The Relative Strength Index serves as a vital gauge for short-term velocity, where readings near overbought thresholds could suggest exhaustion in recent gains, whereas levels approaching oversold territory might hint at a temporary pause or consolidation before further movement occurs. Market participants should monitor how the current price interacts with these dynamic support and resistance zones to gauge the strength of the underlying trend. If the stock maintains its position relative to the moving averages without significant deviation, it reinforces the continuation of the existing directional bias. Conversely, any divergence between the closing price and the calculated averages could foreshadow a shift in market sentiment or a potential reversal pattern forming within the broader industrial complex. Ultimately, the interplay between the current valuation and these historical performance metrics offers insight into whether short-term momentum is accelerating or decelerating relative to longer-term structural trends.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $3.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $3.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $3.4500 | +4.5% |
| 2025-09-02 | $3.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-02 | $3.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $3.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $3.3000 | +4.8% |
| 2024-09-03 | $3.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-03 | $3.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $3.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $3.1500 | +5.0% |
| 2023-08-31 | $3.0000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SCHD or ITA, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell LMT shares regardless of Lockheed Martin Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $17.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to LMT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Lockheed Martin Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies GE Aerospace (GE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with LMT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 37 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
LMT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 LMT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.8% of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) and 3.9% of the ITA (ITA). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 33M shares (14.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest LMT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
LMT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Lockheed Martin Corporation over the past year sits near $452.71 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $513.43 trades 13.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
LMT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Lockheed Martin Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Lockheed Martin Corporation converts 79% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 1,617 | $514.26 | $831,558.42 |
| 2026-05-06 | 27 | $508.93 | $13,741.11 |
| 2026-04-28 | 100 | $513.35 | $51,335 |
| 2026-04-20 | 16 | $592.19 | $9,475.04 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $611.58 | $1,834.74 |
| 2026-04-09 | 519 | $628.50 | $326,191.5 |
| 2026-04-06 | 265 | $622.79 | $165,039.35 |
| 2026-03-25 | 58 | $610.17 | $35,389.86 |
| 2026-03-24 | 227 | $616.25 | $139,888.75 |
| 2026-03-23 | 9 | $627.43 | $5,646.87 |
| 2026-03-13 | 8 | $652.83 | $5,222.64 |
| 2026-03-02 | 700 | $658.08 | $460,656 |
| 2026-02-26 | 46 | $647.50 | $29,785 |
| 2026-02-24 | 11,698 | $660.62 | $7.7M |
| 2026-02-17 | 4,300 | $652.58 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-09 | 5,425 | $623.58 | $3.4M |
| 2026-02-03 | 67 | $636.00 | $42,612 |
| 2026-02-02 | 600 | $634.22 | $380,532 |
| 2026-01-30 | 664 | $622.51 | $413,346.64 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,250 | $582.43 | $728,037.5 |
| 2026-01-14 | 198 | $558.30 | $110,543.4 |
| 2026-01-13 | 198 | $551.24 | $109,145.52 |
| 2026-01-12 | 502 | $542.92 | $272,545.84 |
| 2026-01-08 | 3 | $496.87 | $1,490.61 |
| 2026-01-05 | 450 | $497.07 | $223,681.5 |
| 2025-12-24 | 881 | $482.55 | $425,126.55 |
| 2025-12-23 | 455 | $483.57 | $220,024.35 |
| 2025-12-22 | 4,925 | $474.13 | $2.3M |
| 2025-12-15 | 1,500 | $480.25 | $720,375 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1 | $474.88 | $474.88 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LHX | 0.473 | 0.523 | Moderate |
| GD | 0.440 | 0.468 | Moderate |
| HII | 0.425 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| NOC | 0.380 | 0.732 | Moderate |
| RTX | 0.361 | 0.405 | Moderate |
| KTOS | 0.329 | 0.356 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.287 | 0.352 | Low correlation |
| LDOS | 0.269 | 0.283 | Low correlation |
| MSCI | 0.263 | 0.184 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare LMT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.