Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCRS trades at 49.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 10.6 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $125 implies 72% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Carpenter Technology Corporation reflect a high-quality franchise supported by robust capital efficiency and strong earnings quality. The company generates returns on invested capital at 14.0%, indicating a spread that likely exceeds its cost of equity, while the DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 19.9% driven primarily by solid net margins of 13.1% rather than excessive leverage or asset turnover. This margin-centric growth is corroborated by superior integrity metrics: a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong financial health, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.65 effectively rules out earnings manipulation risks. However, the revenue expansion has moderated to just 4.2% year-over-year, suggesting that current profitability is maintained through pricing power or cost discipline rather than top-line acceleration.
Valuation metrics present a nuanced picture where the market appears to price in continued premium performance despite slowing growth. Trading at 45.5x earnings, the stock commands a slight premium over its Industrials sector average of 44.2x, reflecting investor confidence in its niche positioning within specialty alloys. The divergence between this multiple and a DCF-derived fair value of $125 implies that current market pricing may be optimistic if future cash flows do not materially exceed conservative growth assumptions inherent in the discount model. While the high P/E ratio suggests limited margin for error regarding downside risks, it also indicates that any miss in execution could trigger significant mean reversion.
Risk assessment is complicated by a notable divergence between fundamental strength and insider behavior. Despite the company's clean financial scores and stable margins, insiders have executed $8.66 million in net selling over the past 90 days, creating a potential red flag regarding near-term outlook or liquidity needs not captured in public filings. This activity contrasts with the otherwise low-risk profile suggested by the Fama-French alpha data implied by its consistent profitability and low manipulation scores. Investors must weigh whether this insider flow represents routine portfolio rebalancing or a signal of deteriorating prospects, particularly given that the stock's valuation already embeds high growth expectations not fully supported by the 4.2% revenue trajectory.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $148 | $115 | $92 |
| 3% | $165 | $125 | $99 |
| 4% | $189 | $138 | $107 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $487.25.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $125 (-71.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 113% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCarpenter Technology Corporation currently trades at $404.26 within the Industrials sector, presenting a scenario where price action must be weighed against inherent risk dynamics rather than isolated data points. Without explicit indicators of recent drawdown magnitude or volatility compression/expansion in the provided dataset, it is difficult to definitively categorize current momentum as either structural or fragile based solely on this snapshot. The absence of trend lines, volume profiles, or moving average crossovers prevents a clear assessment of whether the $404.26 level represents a robust consolidation zone or a precarious peak susceptible to rapid correction if market sentiment shifts in the Industrials complex. The fundamental backdrop for specialty steel and metal alloys often correlates with cyclical industrial demand, yet technical confirmation of this relationship is missing from the available figures. In an environment where volatility can spike unexpectedly due to macroeconomic variables, relying on price alone offers limited insight into potential downside exposure or upside resilience. Observers must recognize that a single data point does not reveal the depth of recent corrections nor the speed at which capital might flee if adverse news emerges regarding raw material costs or manufacturing orders. Consequently, any interpretation of momentum here remains provisional until broader technical patterns emerge to validate whether current levels are supported by sustained buying interest or merely temporary liquidity imbalances.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-21 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-26 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-22 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-28 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-22 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-27 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-22 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-29 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-23 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-21 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XAR or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CRS shares regardless of Carpenter Technology Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to CRS through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Carpenter Technology Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with CRS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 16 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CRS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 CRS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.4% of the XAR (XAR) and 1.2% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 16 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (10.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CRS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 16 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CRS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Carpenter Technology Corporation over the past year sits near $247.78 (20% of 252-day volume). The current price of $487.25 trades 96.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (20% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CRS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Carpenter Technology Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Carpenter Technology Corporation converts 43% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 57% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 33 | $427.85 | $14,119.05 |
| 2026-05-07 | 207 | $458.16 | $94,839.12 |
| 2026-05-04 | 265 | $429.41 | $113,793.65 |
| 2026-04-27 | 35 | $427.48 | $14,961.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | 18 | $391.51 | $7,047.18 |
| 2026-04-02 | 18 | $404.32 | $7,277.76 |
| 2026-03-23 | 94 | $362.40 | $34,065.6 |
| 2026-03-17 | 43 | $374.07 | $16,085.01 |
| 2026-03-16 | 19 | $361.28 | $6,864.32 |
| 2026-03-13 | 8,328 | $377.21 | $3.1M |
| 2026-02-23 | 82 | $389.73 | $31,957.86 |
| 2026-02-20 | 34 | $383.98 | $13,055.32 |
| 2026-02-09 | 165 | $365.11 | $60,243.15 |
| 2026-01-28 | 34,881 | $348.99 | $12.2M |
| 2026-01-08 | 6 | $340.28 | $2,041.68 |
| 2025-12-22 | 57 | $327.15 | $18,647.55 |
| 2025-12-17 | 10 | $321.49 | $3,214.9 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2,159 | $321.63 | $694,399.17 |
| 2025-11-24 | 1,699 | $309.42 | $525,704.58 |
| 2025-11-19 | 113 | $322.52 | $36,444.76 |
| 2025-11-07 | 10 | $315.78 | $3,157.8 |
| 2025-11-04 | 9 | $310.73 | $2,796.57 |
| 2025-10-27 | 341 | $314.21 | $107,145.61 |
| 2025-10-23 | 681 | $244.79 | $166,701.99 |
| 2025-10-20 | 45 | $238.23 | $10,720.35 |
| 2025-10-16 | 1,586 | $242.18 | $384,097.48 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ATI | 0.721 | 0.725 | High co-movement |
| HWM | 0.637 | 0.634 | Moderate |
| WWD | 0.628 | 0.634 | Moderate |
| EME | 0.509 | 0.503 | Moderate |
| PWR | 0.509 | 0.522 | Moderate |
| HXL | 0.509 | 0.578 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.503 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.502 | 0.547 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.501 | 0.565 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CRS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.