HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 10.5x earnings — a 70% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — DINO is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of HF Sinclair Corporation reveal a capital allocation profile characterized by modest efficiency, as indicated by an ROIC-WACC spread that remains unquantified in the provided data but is anchored by an ROE of 6.3%. This return on equity decomposes into thin net margins of 2.1%, elevated asset turnover at 1.63x, and moderate leverage via a 1.79x equity multiplier, suggesting earnings quality relies heavily on operational velocity rather than pricing power or margin expansion. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong fundamental stability relative to peers, the Beneish M-Score of -3.07 indicates low likelihood of financial manipulation, yet this strength is currently offset by a contraction in revenue growth of -6.0% year-over-year, highlighting a cyclical headwind that constrains top-line momentum despite solid balance sheet integrity.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models; the stock trades at 20.5x forward earnings, significantly below the sector average of 31.0x, which typically reflects either an out-of-favor sentiment or expectations for persistent underperformance. A discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $35, suggesting that if growth assumptions align with historical trajectories and margin recovery occurs, current prices may be undervalued relative to the model's implied long-term growth rate. The market appears to have priced in continued revenue weakness, creating a potential mean-reversion opportunity should operational leverage begin to drive profitability improvements in subsequent quarters.
Insider activity over the past 90 days has remained neutral with zero net flow, offering no immediate signal of management conviction or distress relative to recent trading levels. In the absence of specific risk factor deltas, Fama-French alpha data, or detailed WACC inputs provided in the dataset, a definitive assessment of downside protection versus upside potential remains incomplete; however, the combination of low valuation multiples and strong integrity scores suggests the stock carries lower idiosyncratic risk than typical energy peers, even as it navigates a negative revenue cycle.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $46 | $31 | $22 |
| 3% | $57 | $35 | $25 |
| 4% | $76 | $42 | $28 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $73.22.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $35 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHF Sinclair Corporation is currently trading at $71.82, presenting a neutral-to-positive technical posture depending on the specific timeframe of analysis relative to its moving averages. Without precise average values in this snapshot, the immediate focus shifts to momentum indicators which often reveal short-term sentiment more acutely than static price levels alone. The Relative Strength Index serves as a critical gauge for whether the asset is experiencing overbought or oversold conditions; if readings hover near upper thresholds, it suggests aggressive upward pressure that may face resistance soon, whereas lower values indicate potential accumulation phases awaiting catalysts. In the context of the energy sector, price action above key moving averages typically signifies sustained bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are maintaining control against selling pressure. Conversely, a position below these lines often reflects bearish dominance or consolidation following recent declines. The current level of $71.82 must be weighed against historical volatility and recent trendlines to determine if this represents a breakout point or a temporary plateau. Traders observing the interplay between price location relative to averages and RSI readings will find that divergences often precede significant reversals, while alignments confirm existing directional trends. Ultimately, the technical landscape for DINO hinges on whether short-term momentum can sustain itself against broader market headwinds or sector-specific fluctuations. The absence of definitive overbought signals might imply room for further appreciation if volume supports current levels, yet any failure to hold above critical support zones could trigger a retest of lower valuations
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-19 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-06 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-23 | $0.5000 | +11.1% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XOP or DVY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DINO shares regardless of HF Sinclair Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to DINO through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in HF Sinclair Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DINO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 16 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DINO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 DINO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.1% of the XOP (XOP) and 0.9% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY). Across 16 tracked ETFs, approximately 17M shares (9.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest DINO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 16 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DINO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for HF Sinclair Corporation over the past year sits near $51.34 (19% of 252-day volume). The current price of $73.22 trades 42.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (19% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DINO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does HF Sinclair Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
HF Sinclair Corporation converts 43% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 57% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 10,934 | $72.43 | $791,949.62 |
| 2026-05-04 | 25 | $69.17 | $1,729.25 |
| 2026-04-30 | 35 | $65.93 | $2,307.55 |
| 2026-04-14 | 475 | $58.56 | $27,816 |
| 2026-04-13 | 9,147 | $57.51 | $526,043.97 |
| 2026-04-08 | 12,617 | $60.82 | $767,365.94 |
| 2026-04-07 | 12,935 | $61.18 | $791,363.3 |
| 2026-04-06 | 13,356 | $60.72 | $810,976.32 |
| 2026-03-25 | 26,269 | $61.44 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,409 | $60.22 | $84,849.98 |
| 2026-03-20 | 219 | $60.49 | $13,247.31 |
| 2026-03-17 | 343 | $56.59 | $19,410.37 |
| 2026-03-12 | 19,490 | $56.39 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-04 | 9,212 | $54.10 | $498,369.2 |
| 2026-02-23 | 48,426 | $50.88 | $2.5M |
| 2026-02-19 | 45,086 | $51.57 | $2.3M |
| 2026-02-13 | 245 | $57.39 | $14,060.55 |
| 2026-01-30 | 4,954 | $51.25 | $253,892.5 |
| 2026-01-28 | 42 | $49.95 | $2,097.9 |
| 2026-01-21 | 28,657 | $48.15 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-20 | 43,358 | $48.63 | $2.1M |
| 2026-01-16 | 40,552 | $49.82 | $2.0M |
| 2026-01-06 | 2,612 | $49.27 | $128,693.24 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12,253 | $46.26 | $566,823.78 |
| 2025-12-22 | 3 | $47.21 | $141.63 |
| 2025-12-11 | 2,661 | $50.26 | $133,741.86 |
| 2025-12-05 | 92 | $50.39 | $4,635.88 |
| 2025-12-04 | 82 | $51.72 | $4,241.04 |
| 2025-12-03 | 82 | $51.97 | $4,261.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 71 | $52.24 | $3,709.04 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare DINO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.