Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.4x earnings — a 53% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — MPC is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $58 implies 74% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedMarathon Petroleum Corporation demonstrates a robust fundamental profile characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of +2.7%, indicating capital generation that exceeds the cost of financing, though this margin is modest relative to high-growth peers. The DuPont decomposition reveals that equity returns are driven primarily by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier 3.49x) and asset efficiency (Turnover 1.58x), rather than operational pricing power, evidenced by a thin net margin of only 3.0%. Financial health metrics reinforce this stability; the company maintains a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 3.3, suggesting low distress risk, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.84 signals minimal earnings manipulation concerns despite recent revenue contraction of -4.4% year-over-year.
Valuation analysis presents a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 18.3x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 24.0x, yet Discounted Cash Flow modeling implies a fair value of $47, resulting in an estimated downside gap of -80.8% against implied assumptions of 10-year free cash flow growth exceeding 14.7%. This suggests the market may be pricing in persistent structural headwinds not fully captured by standard DCF inputs or that current multiples reflect a repricing of long-term sector dynamics rather than temporary dislocation.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics highlight an interesting anomaly where Fama-French alpha stands at 7.36% annually, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns relative to the market benchmark over the measured period. This outperformance is anchored by a pronounced value tilt (HML factor: 0.986), aligning with its discounted valuation profile and low profitability momentum score (RMW: 0.041). However, insider activity during the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $2,085,492, which introduces a counterweight to the attractive risk/reward metrics suggested by factor models. Investors must weigh the mathematical advantages of deep value and strong alpha generation against management's recent disposition of equity and the wide gap between current price and model-derived fair value.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7% | 9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $61 | $44 | $24 |
| 3% | $86 | $58 | $30 |
| 4% | $135 | $81 | $39 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $263.06.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $58 (-74.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 61% below its 5-year average P/E of 43.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMPC's current price of $232.82 is well above both its 50-day simple moving average ($190.32) and 200-day simple moving average ($180.20), indicating a strong upward trend in the short to medium term. With an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 73.6, the stock is currently considered overbought, suggesting caution as it may be due for a potential pullback or consolidation phase.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-19 | $1.0000 | +9.9% |
| 2025-08-20 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-21 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-19 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-20 | $0.9100 | +10.3% |
| 2024-08-21 | $0.8250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.8250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-20 | $0.8250 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.8250 | +10.0% |
| 2023-08-15 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or IYE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MPC shares regardless of Marathon Petroleum Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $11.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to MPC through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Marathon Petroleum Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MPC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MPC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 MPC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.0% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 3.4% of the IYE (IYE). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 49M shares (16.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MPC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MPC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Marathon Petroleum Corporation over the past year sits near $173.00 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $263.06 trades 52.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MPC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Marathon Petroleum Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 55 | $224.14 | $12,327.7 |
| 2026-04-17 | 9 | $226.24 | $2,036.16 |
| 2026-04-14 | 4,542 | $225.29 | $1.0M |
| 2026-04-09 | 185 | $231.98 | $42,916.3 |
| 2026-04-06 | 75 | $241.73 | $18,129.75 |
| 2026-03-31 | 67 | $245.16 | $16,425.72 |
| 2026-03-26 | 229 | $241.25 | $55,246.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 7,940 | $243.91 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-23 | 25,158 | $232.53 | $5.8M |
| 2026-03-19 | 12 | $236.24 | $2,834.88 |
| 2026-03-13 | 54,901 | $230.07 | $12.6M |
| 2026-03-12 | 2,370 | $226.74 | $537,373.8 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,027 | $209.82 | $215,485.14 |
| 2026-02-18 | 41 | $200.54 | $8,222.14 |
| 2026-02-10 | 14 | $204.26 | $2,859.64 |
| 2026-01-21 | 14,224 | $174.88 | $2.5M |
| 2026-01-20 | 604 | $175.63 | $106,080.52 |
| 2026-01-15 | 204 | $181.09 | $36,942.36 |
| 2026-01-05 | 232 | $165.14 | $38,312.48 |
| 2025-12-31 | 1 | $163.82 | $163.82 |
| 2025-12-23 | 100 | $164.77 | $16,477 |
| 2025-12-17 | 8 | $176.79 | $1,414.32 |
| 2025-12-09 | 209 | $189.66 | $39,638.94 |
| 2025-12-04 | 208 | $189.43 | $39,401.44 |
| 2025-12-03 | 755 | $192.70 | $145,488.5 |
| 2025-12-02 | 218 | $196.14 | $42,758.52 |
| 2025-11-26 | 780 | $190.00 | $148,200 |
| 2025-11-20 | 334 | $195.52 | $65,303.68 |
| 2025-11-12 | 20 | $200.13 | $4,002.6 |
| 2025-10-28 | 541 | $196.23 | $106,160.43 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VLO | 0.849 | 0.844 | High co-movement |
| PSX | 0.824 | 0.824 | High co-movement |
| CVX | 0.597 | 0.576 | Moderate |
| PTEN | 0.586 | 0.577 | Moderate |
| COP | 0.586 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| EOG | 0.574 | 0.564 | Moderate |
| DVN | 0.566 | 0.524 | Moderate |
| XOM | 0.562 | 0.532 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.559 | 0.548 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MPC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.