Phillips 66 (PSX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 17.4x earnings — a 50% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — PSX is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.7. DCF fair value of $30 implies 81% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Phillips 66 reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital (8.5%) falls below the weighted average cost of capital (8.9%), resulting in a negative spread that erodes shareholder value despite a robust DuPont ROE decomposition driven primarily by high asset turnover and leverage rather than margin expansion. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates solid financial strength and an Altman Z-Score of 3.7 suggests low bankruptcy risk, the Beneish M-Score of -2.79 points to clean earnings with no evidence of manipulation; however, these defensive metrics contrast sharply with a net margin contraction to 3.3% amid revenue decline, signaling operational headwinds that are not yet fully reflected in the balance sheet's leverage structure.
Valuation analysis presents a significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E of 16.3x versus a sector average of 24.0x implies the stock is discounted relative to peers, likely due to recent revenue deterioration; yet, this discount appears excessive when weighed against a DCF fair value implying an -86.9% downside from current levels and a massive implied FCF growth rate of 16.9%. The market seems to be pricing in persistent structural weakness or regulatory overhangs that the discounted cash flow model fails to capture, creating a scenario where historical multiples offer limited guidance for future performance given the negative revenue trajectory.
Risk-adjusted return metrics further complicate the investment thesis by highlighting significant underperformance relative to factor benchmarks. The annualized Fama-French alpha of -7.28% underscores persistent manager or stock-specific inefficiency in generating excess returns, while a Value Factor (HML) score of 0.970 and Profitability Factor (RMW) of 0.303 suggest the security is correctly categorized as undervalued but lacks robust profitability characteristics typically associated with premium valuations. Compounding these fundamental concerns, net insider selling totaling over $14 million in the last ninety days suggests management may view current valuation levels or future prospects differently than external investors, warranting a cautious assessment of near-term catalysts before any potential re-rating occurs.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $45 | $23 | $11 |
| 3% | $63 | $30 | $15 |
| 4% | $97 | $40 | $19 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $182.56.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $30 (-81.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 23% below its 5-year average P/E of 19.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPhillips 66 (PSX) is currently trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong upward trend in the short to medium term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 75.3 suggests that the stock may be overbought, potentially signaling a period where caution might be warranted as prices could be due for a correction or consolidation.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $1.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-23 | $1.2700 | +5.8% |
| 2025-11-17 | $1.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-19 | $1.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $1.2000 | +4.3% |
| 2025-02-24 | $1.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-18 | $1.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-20 | $1.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-17 | $1.1500 | +9.5% |
| 2024-02-16 | $1.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $1.0500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or IYE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PSX shares regardless of Phillips 66's individual fundamentals. We estimate $11.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to PSX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Phillips 66 to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Phillips 66 (PSX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with PSX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PSX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 PSX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Phillips 66 (PSX) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 3.3% of the IYE (IYE). Across 34 tracked ETFs, approximately 70M shares (17.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PSX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 34 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PSX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Phillips 66 over the past year sits near $130.93 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $182.56 trades 39.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PSX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Phillips 66 convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Phillips 66 converts 28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 72% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 46 | $171.56 | $7,891.76 |
| 2026-05-01 | 563 | $179.15 | $100,861.45 |
| 2026-04-15 | 5,543 | $158.76 | $880,006.68 |
| 2026-04-14 | 43,626 | $160.40 | $7.0M |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,945 | $168.00 | $326,760 |
| 2026-04-08 | 14,767 | $174.70 | $2.6M |
| 2026-04-07 | 1 | $177.33 | $177.33 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1 | $176.21 | $176.21 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,264 | $182.18 | $230,275.52 |
| 2026-03-25 | 168 | $184.12 | $30,932.16 |
| 2026-03-24 | 469 | $176.76 | $82,900.44 |
| 2026-03-23 | 736 | $175.47 | $129,145.92 |
| 2026-03-20 | 719 | $178.34 | $128,226.46 |
| 2026-03-19 | 820 | $172.74 | $141,646.8 |
| 2026-03-18 | 618 | $172.71 | $106,734.78 |
| 2026-03-17 | 634 | $173.48 | $109,986.32 |
| 2026-03-16 | 673 | $172.74 | $116,254.02 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,223 | $174.09 | $212,912.07 |
| 2026-03-12 | 240,410 | $169.50 | $40.7M |
| 2026-03-11 | 1,979 | $162.50 | $321,587.5 |
| 2026-03-10 | 875 | $163.00 | $142,625 |
| 2026-03-06 | 883 | $166.44 | $146,966.52 |
| 2026-03-05 | 32,558 | $164.72 | $5.4M |
| 2026-02-23 | 3,215 | $155.75 | $500,736.25 |
| 2026-02-17 | 32,894 | $159.77 | $5.3M |
| 2026-02-12 | 318 | $161.50 | $51,357 |
| 2026-02-06 | 164 | $154.43 | $25,326.52 |
| 2026-02-05 | 744 | $154.69 | $115,089.36 |
| 2026-01-30 | 91,832 | $144.08 | $13.2M |
| 2026-01-20 | 100 | $138.28 | $13,828 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MPC | 0.824 | 0.824 | High co-movement |
| VLO | 0.823 | 0.806 | High co-movement |
| COP | 0.688 | 0.681 | Moderate |
| CVX | 0.685 | 0.690 | Moderate |
| EOG | 0.642 | 0.656 | Moderate |
| XOM | 0.631 | 0.666 | Moderate |
| DVN | 0.621 | 0.579 | Moderate |
| PTEN | 0.595 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.595 | 0.585 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PSX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.