The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.3x earnings — a 49% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — DIS is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.3. DCF fair value of $128 implies 27% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency at The Walt Disney Company presents a structural challenge, evidenced by an ROIC of 6.7% that falls significantly short of the 12.0% cost of equity, resulting in a negative spread of -5.4%. This indicates value destruction on invested capital despite a DuPont-decomposed ROE of 10.8%, which is driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier of 1.72x) rather than operational margin expansion or asset efficiency, as the low 0.48x turnover rate constrains growth potential. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests strong fundamental stability and financial health, the Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places the firm in a zone warranting attention regarding bankruptcy risk, even though the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.59 effectively rules out earnings manipulation concerns.
Valuation metrics currently position the stock as materially undervalued relative to its intrinsic worth and peer group, trading at 14.2x P/E compared to a sector average of 27.3x. A discounted cash flow analysis implies significant upside potential with a fair value estimate of $128, representing approximately 32.8% appreciation from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 11.7%. This discount appears to be priced in through multiple risk factors; specifically, the stock exhibits negative momentum relative to small-cap and mid-cap peers with a Fama-French Alpha of -19.64% annually and underperforms on profitability screens (RMW factor of -0.314). Although the company carries a value tilt indicated by an HML score of 0.148, recent insider activity shows $183,131 in net selling over the last ninety days, adding another layer of caution to the investment thesis despite the attractive entry multiple.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $154 | $117 | $92 |
| 3% | $174 | $128 | $100 |
| 4% | $200 | $143 | $108 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $101.41.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $128 (+26.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 1% above its 5-year average P/E of 14.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe Walt Disney Company is currently trading at $104.08, a position that necessitates an evaluation of its relationship to moving average envelopes to gauge potential mean-reversion dynamics. Without specific values for the Short-Term and Long-Term Moving Averages or their respective standard deviation bands, it remains impossible to definitively characterize whether this price point represents a statistical outlier on either side of the trend channel or if it sits comfortably within historical volatility ranges. If the current level were significantly detached from the long-term mean relative to recent price action, one might observe heightened potential for a pullback toward equilibrium; conversely, proximity to the upper band could suggest limited upside before corrective pressure emerges. In the Communication Services sector context, this $104.08 valuation serves as a snapshot of immediate market sentiment rather than an isolated data point. The absence of defined envelope boundaries prevents a conclusive assessment of whether the stock is exhibiting overbought or oversold conditions relative to its own recent history. Technical analysis relies heavily on the convergence of price action with these dynamic support and resistance lines to identify probabilistic setups, yet here only the absolute price figure exists in isolation from those critical reference markers. Consequently, any inference regarding future directional bias based solely on this single data point would be speculative without the accompanying context of where that price resides relative to its calculated moving averages and standard deviation thresholds.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | $0.7500 | +50.0% |
| 2025-06-24 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-16 | $0.5000 | +11.1% |
| 2024-07-08 | $0.4500 | +50.0% |
| 2023-12-08 | $0.3000 | -65.9% |
| 2019-12-13 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2019-07-05 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2018-12-07 | $0.8800 | +4.8% |
| 2018-07-06 | $0.8400 | 0.0% |
| 2017-12-08 | $0.8400 | +7.7% |
| 2017-07-06 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2016-12-08 | $0.7800 | +9.9% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +61,800 | +43.8% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | -902,700 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +12,900 | +56.6% | Increased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | -89,482 | -89.5% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -171,855 | -42.9% | Decreased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -125,900 | -4.5% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +23,860 | +100.0% | New Position |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -248,200 | -60.5% | Decreased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -799,400 | -22.3% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | +389,686 | +76.0% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | +20,800 | +1040.0% | Increased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | +31,000 | +28.2% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLC or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DIS shares regardless of The Walt Disney Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $21.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to DIS through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Walt Disney Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Walt Disney Company (DIS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DIS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DIS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 DIS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.6% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) and 4.0% of the VOX (VOX). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 215M shares (12.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DIS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DIS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Walt Disney Company over the past year sits near $111.98 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $101.41 sits 9.4% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DIS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Walt Disney Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Walt Disney Company converts 53% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2,155 | $104.90 | $226,059.5 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,238 | $106.16 | $131,426.08 |
| 2026-05-12 | 4,924 | $104.72 | $515,641.28 |
| 2026-05-11 | 28,016 | $108.02 | $3.0M |
| 2026-05-08 | 40,864 | $108.66 | $4.4M |
| 2026-05-07 | 264,544 | $108.06 | $28.6M |
| 2026-05-05 | 31 | $101.31 | $3,140.61 |
| 2026-05-04 | 11,879 | $103.08 | $1.2M |
| 2026-05-01 | 427 | $103.75 | $44,301.25 |
| 2026-04-29 | 6,967 | $101.47 | $706,941.49 |
| 2026-04-27 | 2,584 | $102.60 | $265,118.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | 6,532 | $103.65 | $677,041.8 |
| 2026-04-22 | 5,432 | $104.29 | $566,503.28 |
| 2026-04-21 | 1 | $106.30 | $106.3 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,830 | $106.29 | $407,090.7 |
| 2026-04-17 | 8,513 | $103.90 | $884,500.7 |
| 2026-04-15 | 273 | $102.59 | $28,007.07 |
| 2026-04-14 | 71 | $101.18 | $7,183.78 |
| 2026-04-13 | 23,980 | $99.17 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-09 | 13,298 | $99.18 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-08 | 1 | $95.78 | $95.78 |
| 2026-04-07 | 300 | $96.28 | $28,884 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,577 | $96.61 | $152,353.97 |
| 2026-04-02 | 10,328 | $96.56 | $997,271.68 |
| 2026-03-31 | 286 | $94.32 | $26,975.52 |
| 2026-03-30 | 15 | $92.42 | $1,386.3 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,898 | $96.39 | $182,948.22 |
| 2026-03-24 | 37,426 | $97.95 | $3.7M |
| 2026-03-23 | 162,826 | $99.51 | $16.2M |
| 2026-03-20 | 21 | $99.20 | $2,083.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 2,667,000 | $257,045,460K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 229,100 | $22,080,658K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 202,800 | $19,545,864K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 162,100 | $15,623,198K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 35,700 | $3,440,766K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 23,860 | $2,299,627K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 10,518 | $1,013,725K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 2,792,900 | $317,748,233K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 902,700 | $102,700,396K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 410,300 | $46,679,831K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 400,955 | $45,616,650K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 141,000 | $16,041,570K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2025-Q4 | 100,000 | $11,377,000K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 22,800 | $2,593,956K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q3 | 3,592,300 | $411,318,350K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ROK | 0.631 | 0.470 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.566 | 0.518 | Moderate |
| GEN | 0.534 | 0.470 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.514 | 0.413 | Moderate |
| HBAN | 0.481 | 0.383 | Moderate |
| BEN | 0.476 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.474 | 0.425 | Moderate |
| COF | 0.470 | 0.400 | Moderate |
| MET | 0.469 | 0.429 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DIS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.