CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 28.5x earnings — a 40% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — CBRE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.1. DCF fair value of $96 implies 34% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for CBRE presents a significant structural challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -6.5%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. Despite this negative economic moat, equity returns are sustained at 12% via high financial leverage; the DuPont decomposition reveals that while asset turnover sits robustly at 1.31x and margins hold steady at 2.9%, an Equity Multiplier of 3.21x is artificially inflating ROE to mask underlying capital inefficiency. Creditworthiness metrics offer a mixed signal: the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial strength, yet the Altman Z-Score of 3.1 places the firm in the "grey zone" between safety and distress, while the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.30 points to low earnings manipulation risk despite these operational headwinds.
Valuation metrics indicate a substantial disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E multiple of 35.5x, which likely exceeds historical norms given the weak profitability factor (RMW) alpha of -0.155, the stock appears significantly overvalued relative to its fundamentals. A DCF analysis yields a fair value of $97, implying a -28.3% downside from current levels if the market's assumption of 19.5% decade-long FCF growth proves unrealistic for an entity generating negative spreads on invested capital. The pricing appears to rely heavily on revenue growth momentum rather than margin expansion or capital efficiency improvements.
Risk-reward dynamics are further complicated by divergent factor exposures and insider behavior. While the stock exhibits a positive Value Factor alpha of 0.316, suggesting potential outperformance in value-oriented regimes, this is counterbalanced by persistent weak profitability signals and heavy insider selling totaling $1.45 million over the last ninety days. The combination of negative capital returns, elevated valuation multiples, and active insider distribution suggests that current prices may be pricing in a growth trajectory that conflicts with the company's fundamental ability to generate excess returns on invested assets.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 13% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.1% | 12.1% | 14.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $115 | $88 | $70 |
| 3% | $130 | $96 | $75 |
| 4% | $149 | $107 | $82 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $127.86.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $96 (-34.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 36% above its 5-year average P/E of 26.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical environment for CBRE Group, Inc. reflects a distinct tension between its elevated price level of $131.12 and the inherent fragility often associated with such valuations in the real estate sector. While the stock trades at a premium relative to historical norms, this positioning inherently amplifies downside risk should market sentiment shift or if fundamental growth narratives weaken. The absence of specific volatility metrics suggests that price movements could be highly sensitive to external macroeconomic factors typical for REITs and commercial services firms, where interest rate sensitivity remains a critical variable. From a structural perspective, the high entry point implies that any subsequent pullback could result in significant percentage losses relative to recent highs, potentially exposing investors to sharp drawdowns if momentum is driven more by speculative optimism than sustained earnings acceleration. The real estate sector currently faces headwinds regarding occupancy rates and capitalization rates, which may act as a ceiling for upside potential while providing ample room for downside correction. Consequently, the observed price action appears precarious; it relies heavily on continued favorable conditions to maintain its trajectory but lacks an obvious safety margin against adverse news or economic tightening. Ultimately, this setup presents a scenario where momentum is likely fragile rather than structural, given the confluence of high valuation and sector-specific vulnerabilities. The market must navigate whether current levels represent a sustainable equilibrium or a temporary overextension that invites correction. Traders should remain vigilant regarding how broader real estate fundamentals interact with these technical extremes, as the disparity between price and
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or IYR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CBRE shares regardless of CBRE Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to CBRE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CBRE Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CBRE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CBRE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 CBRE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.0% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 3.1% of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 54M shares (18.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CBRE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CBRE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CBRE Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $162.44 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $127.86 sits 21.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CBRE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CBRE Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CBRE Group, Inc. converts 59% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 2,379 | $146.11 | $347,595.69 |
| 2026-05-11 | 2,541 | $146.33 | $371,824.53 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2,446 | $146.70 | $358,828.2 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2,579 | $145.16 | $374,367.64 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2,868 | $147.80 | $423,890.4 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1,715 | $147.48 | $252,928.2 |
| 2026-04-15 | 137 | $147.07 | $20,148.59 |
| 2026-04-14 | 112 | $145.94 | $16,345.28 |
| 2026-04-07 | 2,721 | $136.19 | $370,572.99 |
| 2026-04-06 | 79 | $136.60 | $10,791.4 |
| 2026-04-02 | 98 | $134.49 | $13,180.02 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2,335 | $135.46 | $316,299.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,816 | $133.14 | $374,922.24 |
| 2026-03-25 | 32 | $132.92 | $4,253.44 |
| 2026-03-24 | 682 | $135.75 | $92,581.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | 35 | $131.99 | $4,619.65 |
| 2026-03-20 | 40 | $133.21 | $5,328.4 |
| 2026-03-12 | 83,904 | $132.49 | $11.1M |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,679 | $141.19 | $237,058.01 |
| 2026-03-02 | 7,093 | $147.66 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-19 | 825 | $152.01 | $125,408.25 |
| 2026-02-17 | 8 | $142.31 | $1,138.48 |
| 2026-02-13 | 10 | $136.28 | $1,362.8 |
| 2026-02-11 | 2,175 | $170.33 | $370,467.75 |
| 2026-02-10 | 558 | $170.98 | $95,406.84 |
| 2026-02-06 | 18,301 | $166.18 | $3.0M |
| 2026-02-03 | 37,655 | $169.36 | $6.4M |
| 2026-01-08 | 17 | $166.33 | $2,827.61 |
| 2025-12-22 | 218,836 | $161.63 | $35.4M |
| 2025-12-17 | 148 | $160.70 | $23,783.6 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| JLL | 0.913 | 0.921 | High co-movement |
| MC | 0.626 | 0.640 | Moderate |
| BXP | 0.622 | 0.692 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.594 | 0.445 | Moderate |
| VNO | 0.553 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| BLK | 0.548 | 0.560 | Moderate |
| HBAN | 0.544 | 0.495 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.529 | 0.470 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.527 | 0.468 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CBRE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.