Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicICE trades at 21.5x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.9. DCF fair value of $83 implies 49% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Intercontinental Exchange reveal a tension between robust profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition highlights an exceptional 26.2% net margin driving returns, this is offset by low asset turnover (0.09x) and elevated leverage (4.72x), resulting in an ROE of 11.4%. Critically, the negative ROIC-WACC spread of -2.4% indicates that current capital allocations are destroying value relative to the cost of equity, a dynamic reinforced by a weak profitability factor score (-0.143) despite strong Piotroski (7/9) and Beneish (-2.46) scores suggesting earnings quality remains intact. The Altman Z-Score of 0.9 signals heightened bankruptcy risk that warrants close monitoring alongside the revenue growth trajectory.
Valuation metrics suggest significant compression relative to historical norms and sector peers, with a current P/E multiple of 28.2x trading at a substantial premium to the financial services average of 18.4x. This disparity is further illuminated by discounted cash flow analysis, which implies an upside discount of -47.5% from fair value estimates anchored on assumed long-term free cash flow growth of 13.2%. The market appears pricing in aggressive expansion that may not be fully supported by the underlying capital efficiency metrics or recent insider activity patterns.
Risk-adjusted performance data presents a challenging picture, characterized by an annual Fama-French alpha of -17.91% and pronounced value factor exposure (HML: 0.270). Compounding these fundamental headwinds is substantial net insider selling totaling $55 million over the last ninety days, which often precedes or accompanies periods of valuation correction. Collectively, these factors depict a company with high-margin earnings potential currently trading at an elevated multiple while generating negative economic spread and exhibiting negative risk-adjusted returns relative to its factor exposures.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $107 | $72 | $52 |
| 3% | $128 | $83 | $58 |
| 4% | $161 | $98 | $66 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $142.38.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $83 (-49.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% below its 5-year average P/E of 31.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. is currently trading at $151.49, a price point that requires contextualization against its short-term moving average envelope to assess relative positioning. Without specific values for the upper and lower bounds of this statistical channel, it remains unclear whether the current valuation represents an overextension above the mean or a discount below it. If the stock were trading significantly outside these historical averages, such divergence often signals increased volatility as prices attempt to find equilibrium with recent trends. Conversely, positioning near the center of the envelope suggests stability and adherence to established momentum patterns typical for financial services equities. The proximity of the current price to the moving average lines serves as a primary gauge for potential mean-reversion dynamics. When an asset drifts far from its central trend line, statistical probability often favors a return toward that average over time, creating opportunities where value is perceived relative to recent performance norms. However, if the $151.49 level coincides with or exceeds the upper boundary of the envelope, it may indicate sustained bullish pressure rather than an imminent correction. Similarly, trading below the lower threshold could imply a period of consolidation before any significant upward adjustment occurs. Ultimately, the technical landscape for ICE hinges on where this specific price sits relative to its calculated moving averages, which dictates whether the market is in a state of extension or equilibrium. Observers might note that deviations from these statistical norms frequently precede corrective movements as prices seek alignment with recent historical data points. The
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | $0.5200 | +8.3% |
| 2025-12-16 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-17 | $0.4800 | +6.7% |
| 2024-12-16 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-13 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.4500 | +7.1% |
| 2023-12-13 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLF or VFH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ICE shares regardless of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to ICE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with ICE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ICE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 ICE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) and 1.1% of the VFH (VFH). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 68M shares (12.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ICE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ICE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. over the past year sits near $156.02 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $142.38 sits 8.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ICE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. converts 58% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 1 | $154.75 | $154.75 |
| 2026-04-24 | 603 | $157.48 | $94,960.44 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $162.04 | $972.24 |
| 2026-04-08 | 20 | $166.30 | $3,326 |
| 2026-04-06 | 66 | $162.98 | $10,756.68 |
| 2026-03-25 | 57 | $155.82 | $8,881.74 |
| 2026-03-24 | 8 | $157.17 | $1,257.36 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $158.43 | $950.58 |
| 2026-03-09 | 1,033 | $166.19 | $171,674.27 |
| 2026-03-05 | 996 | $166.29 | $165,624.84 |
| 2026-02-17 | 854 | $152.28 | $130,047.12 |
| 2026-02-03 | 112 | $173.18 | $19,396.16 |
| 2026-01-30 | 13 | $175.10 | $2,276.3 |
| 2026-01-23 | 10,575 | $174.35 | $1.8M |
| 2026-01-21 | 398 | $170.95 | $68,038.1 |
| 2026-01-20 | 296 | $173.98 | $51,498.08 |
| 2025-12-31 | 31 | $163.16 | $5,057.96 |
| 2025-12-23 | 26,872 | $161.45 | $4.3M |
| 2025-12-16 | 4 | $161.40 | $645.6 |
| 2025-11-25 | 3,128 | $152.90 | $478,271.2 |
| 2025-11-24 | 3 | $154.43 | $463.29 |
| 2025-11-12 | 160 | $151.99 | $24,318.4 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2,747 | $149.00 | $409,303 |
| 2025-11-06 | 77 | $146.21 | $11,258.17 |
| 2025-10-20 | 128 | $153.60 | $19,660.8 |
| 2025-10-17 | 317 | $153.36 | $48,615.12 |
| 2025-10-16 | 3,581 | $157.46 | $563,864.26 |
| 2025-10-15 | 17,910 | $158.27 | $2.8M |
| 2025-10-14 | 325,925 | $158.75 | $51.7M |
| 2025-10-08 | 2,311 | $161.98 | $374,335.78 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NDAQ | 0.614 | 0.658 | Moderate |
| SPGI | 0.575 | 0.602 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.556 | 0.577 | Moderate |
| MCO | 0.539 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| CBRE | 0.512 | 0.609 | Moderate |
| PAYX | 0.512 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| JLL | 0.488 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| FDS | 0.459 | 0.455 | Moderate |
| BK | 0.457 | 0.473 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ICE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.