Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicNDAQ trades at 27.9x earnings — a 45% premium to its sector average of 19.2x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 9/9) with Altman Z of 2.5. DCF fair value of $49 implies 43% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Nasdaq, Inc. present a complex dichotomy between exceptional operational stability and capital allocation inefficiency. While the company exhibits pristine financial health evidenced by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a robust Beneish M-Score of -2.59 indicating low earnings manipulation risk, its return profile is structurally challenged. The ROIC-WACC spread stands at -1.6%, signaling that capital deployment currently destroys value relative to the cost of equity, despite an impressive DuPont-decomposed ROE of 14.6% driven primarily by high net margins (21.6%) and moderate leverage rather than asset efficiency or turnover. This divergence suggests management is generating strong accounting returns through a leveraged balance sheet while failing to generate sufficient risk-adjusted cash flows from its core assets, as further hinted by the weak profitability factor alpha of -0.103.
Valuation metrics reflect significant market skepticism regarding this capital inefficiency and future growth sustainability. Trading at 28.0x earnings, the stock commands a substantial premium over the sector average of 18.4x, yet a DCF model incorporating an implied free cash flow growth rate of only 12.6% yields a fair value that implies -43.1% downside from current levels. This disconnect indicates the market is pricing in aggressive future expansion or margin durability that may not align with the observed negative spread between returns and costs, creating a scenario where high historical profitability does not translate into intrinsic value creation at these multiples.
Risk factors are further amplified by recent insider activity showing $50.89 million in net selling over the last 90 days, which often precedes or accompanies management's reassessment of near-term targets amidst negative Fama-French alpha performance of -1.13%. The combination of a negative risk-adjusted return spread, valuation levels significantly detached from DCF-derived fair value, and substantial insider outflows suggests that while the balance sheet remains fortress-like, the equity claim faces headwinds regarding both capital efficiency and forward-looking growth expectations.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 12% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $62 | $43 | $31 |
| 3% | $74 | $49 | $35 |
| 4% | $93 | $57 | $39 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $87.91.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $49 (-43.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 3% above its 5-year average P/E of 26.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedNDAQ's price is currently below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a technical weakness in the near term. The RSI at 44.2 indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaning towards neutral momentum but hinting at potential further consolidation or slight downward pressure.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-05 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.2700 | +12.5% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.2400 | +9.1% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-07 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.2200 | +10.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOE or XLF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NDAQ shares regardless of Nasdaq, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to NDAQ through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Nasdaq, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B (BRK.B) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with NDAQ. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NDAQ Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 NDAQ shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.8% of the VOE (VOE) and 0.6% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 73M shares (12.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest NDAQ Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NDAQ Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Nasdaq, Inc. over the past year sits near $88.82 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $87.91 sits 1.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NDAQ Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Nasdaq, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Nasdaq, Inc. converts 64% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 66,890 | $88.48 | $5.9M |
| 2026-05-08 | 21,176 | $89.00 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-06 | 6 | $89.00 | $534 |
| 2026-04-29 | 3 | $91.31 | $273.93 |
| 2026-04-23 | 6 | $86.37 | $518.22 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1,004 | $87.60 | $87,950.4 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $86.71 | $260.13 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1 | $84.21 | $84.21 |
| 2026-04-09 | 313 | $88.09 | $27,572.17 |
| 2026-04-08 | 20,001 | $86.40 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-06 | 8 | $86.65 | $693.2 |
| 2026-03-30 | 274 | $81.48 | $22,325.52 |
| 2026-03-27 | 11 | $83.78 | $921.58 |
| 2026-03-25 | 45 | $84.28 | $3,792.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | 19 | $88.43 | $1,680.17 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2 | $89.13 | $178.26 |
| 2026-03-04 | 8,986 | $87.42 | $785,556.12 |
| 2026-03-03 | 9,508 | $88.09 | $837,559.72 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,132 | $88.59 | $100,283.88 |
| 2026-02-19 | 29 | $82.13 | $2,381.77 |
| 2026-02-18 | 3,001 | $80.24 | $240,800.24 |
| 2026-02-17 | 936 | $79.47 | $74,383.92 |
| 2026-02-11 | 121 | $82.51 | $9,983.71 |
| 2026-02-04 | 189,119 | $87.71 | $16.6M |
| 2026-02-02 | 61 | $96.89 | $5,910.29 |
| 2026-01-26 | 62 | $98.05 | $6,079.1 |
| 2026-01-20 | 2,694 | $100.98 | $272,040.12 |
| 2026-01-16 | 90 | $100.33 | $9,029.7 |
| 2026-01-08 | 200 | $100.40 | $20,080 |
| 2026-01-07 | 2,033 | $100.69 | $204,702.77 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SPGI | 0.754 | 0.773 | High co-movement |
| MCO | 0.738 | 0.747 | High co-movement |
| ICE | 0.614 | 0.658 | Moderate |
| MSCI | 0.606 | 0.633 | Moderate |
| SCHW | 0.555 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| FDS | 0.554 | 0.553 | Moderate |
| KKR | 0.533 | 0.565 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.524 | 0.530 | Moderate |
| RJF | 0.516 | 0.490 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NDAQ to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.