S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSPGI trades at 26.8x earnings — a 39% premium to its sector average of 19.2x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 4.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $352 implies 18% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of S&P Global Inc. present a dual narrative characterized by exceptional operational leverage but constrained capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that ROE is primarily driven by robust net margins rather than asset turnover or financial leverage, the negative 2.0% spread between ROIC and WACC indicates that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of equity, suggesting a potential drag on long-term shareholder value creation despite strong profitability metrics. This operational profile is supported by high-quality earnings signals, evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 4.2 that places the firm in a safe zone regarding bankruptcy risk, while the negative Beneish M-Score further corroborates clean financial reporting standards.
Valuation metrics suggest significant compression relative to historical norms and sector peers, with the current P/E multiple trading at nearly six times its peer average. A discounted cash flow analysis implies an 18.7% downside from current levels, driven by a disconnect between market pricing and modeled fair value; specifically, the model assumes a ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 17.8%, which appears aggressive given the negative return spread on capital. This valuation premium may reflect market confidence in sustained margin expansion rather than immediate earnings acceleration, as revenue growth currently sits at just under 8% year-over-year.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights a notable divergence between profitability factors and broad factor exposures. Although the stock exhibits robust profitability characteristics with a positive Risk-Modified (RMW) alpha of 0.140, it has generated substantial negative momentum relative to risk-free rates over recent periods, registering an annual Fama-French Alpha of -24.76%. Despite this underperformance against factor benchmarks and neutral exposure to value factors, insider activity shows net buying totaling nearly one million dollars in the last ninety days, potentially signaling management confidence independent of current valuation multiples or alpha generation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.5% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $422 | $319 | $253 |
| 3% | $480 | $352 | $273 |
| 4% | $559 | $393 | $297 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $417.46.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $352 (-18.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 32% below its 5-year average P/E of 41.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of SPGI is below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting that the stock may be in a downward trend. With an RSI value of 39.9, which is below the midpoint of 50, this indicates that the security has been experiencing relatively more selling pressure over the past 14 days compared to buying pressure.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.9700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.9700 | +1.0% |
| 2025-11-25 | $0.9600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-26 | $0.9600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-28 | $0.9600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-26 | $0.9600 | +5.5% |
| 2024-11-26 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-27 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-29 | $0.9100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-26 | $0.9100 | +1.1% |
| 2023-11-27 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-25 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYF or XLF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SPGI shares regardless of S&P Global Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $15.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to SPGI through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in S&P Global Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with SPGI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SPGI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 SPGI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.1% of the IYF (IYF) and 1.7% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 37M shares (12.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SPGI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SPGI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for S&P Global Inc. over the past year sits near $492.76 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $417.46 sits 15.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SPGI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does S&P Global Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
S&P Global Inc. converts 71% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 146 | $424.75 | $62,013.5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 8,500 | $431.23 | $3.7M |
| 2026-04-20 | 110 | $442.57 | $48,682.7 |
| 2026-04-13 | 400 | $415.42 | $166,168 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,600 | $424.32 | $678,912 |
| 2026-04-07 | 40 | $434.11 | $17,364.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 9 | $424.43 | $3,819.87 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1,400 | $426.64 | $597,296 |
| 2026-03-17 | 4,648 | $426.59 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-12 | 7,211 | $428.96 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-11 | 19 | $435.44 | $8,273.36 |
| 2026-03-03 | 438 | $443.08 | $194,069.04 |
| 2026-02-27 | 7,214 | $437.49 | $3.2M |
| 2026-02-26 | 1,542 | $423.61 | $653,206.62 |
| 2026-02-23 | 62,464 | $417.48 | $26.1M |
| 2026-02-20 | 19 | $416.67 | $7,916.73 |
| 2026-02-17 | 952 | $409.54 | $389,882.08 |
| 2026-01-30 | 1,166 | $528.63 | $616,382.58 |
| 2026-01-21 | 3,932 | $519.04 | $2.0M |
| 2026-01-12 | 197,563 | $541.94 | $107.1M |
| 2026-01-06 | 500 | $532.90 | $266,450 |
| 2025-12-26 | 500 | $525.74 | $262,870 |
| 2025-12-24 | 500 | $525.14 | $262,570 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1,896 | $521.90 | $989,522.4 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $512.60 | $51,260 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1,370 | $510.59 | $699,508.3 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2,522 | $490.73 | $1.2M |
| 2025-11-24 | 9 | $493.60 | $4,442.4 |
| 2025-11-19 | 2,952 | $490.28 | $1.4M |
| 2025-11-13 | 1,837 | $495.84 | $910,858.08 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MCO | 0.876 | 0.880 | High co-movement |
| NDAQ | 0.754 | 0.773 | High co-movement |
| MSCI | 0.674 | 0.729 | Moderate |
| FDS | 0.633 | 0.632 | Moderate |
| VRSK | 0.607 | 0.681 | Moderate |
| ICE | 0.575 | 0.602 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.549 | 0.587 | Moderate |
| PAYX | 0.497 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| FIS | 0.486 | 0.580 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SPGI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.