Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.2x earnings — a 68% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — JLL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $445 implies 37% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Jones Lang LaSalle reveal a tension between operational momentum and capital efficiency. While the company demonstrates robust revenue growth of 11.5% and maintains an exceptionally strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating superior financial health relative to peers, its return profile is constrained by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -4.2%. This suggests that current investments are destroying value relative to the cost of capital. The DuPont decomposition clarifies this dynamic: an ROE of 10.4% is driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier of 2.34x) and asset turnover rather than margin expansion, which remains thin at just 3.0%. Furthermore, the Altman Z-Score of 3.1 places the firm in a gray zone regarding bankruptcy risk, while the negative Profitability Factor alpha (-0.217) signals that recent earnings quality has lagged behind growth metrics.
Valuation analysis presents a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E multiple of 18.7x against a sector average of 87.1x, the stock appears significantly discounted relative to its peers, yet this compression likely reflects concerns over profitability rather than pure undervaluation. A DCF model implies a fair value of $440 with an upside potential of 44.6%, assuming a ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 10.1%. This wide gap suggests the market is pricing in significant downside or stagnation, potentially overlooking the strong underlying fundamentals if macro conditions improve for the real estate sector.
Risk assessment highlights conflicting signals regarding future performance drivers. The stock exhibits a pronounced value tilt with a Value Factor alpha of 0.342, yet this is counterbalanced by weak profitability momentum and recent insider activity showing $2,366,612 in net selling over the last ninety days. Meanwhile, the Fama-French Alpha stands at an impressive annualized 9.16%, suggesting historical outperformance independent of market beta. Investors must weigh whether the current discount represents a mispricing opportunity or a justified reaction to deteriorating profit margins and insider confidence levels before concluding on the risk-reward asymmetry.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 11% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11% | 13% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $517 | $413 | $341 |
| 3% | $570 | $445 | $362 |
| 4% | $637 | $484 | $387 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $295.99.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $445 (+37.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 31% above its 5-year average P/E of 14.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of $291.69 for Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated suggests a market environment where larger participants may be evaluating the stock's valuation within the Real Estate sector, though specific institutional positioning cannot be definitively confirmed without deeper order flow data. In the absence of explicit moving average crossover signals or defined volume trends in the provided dataset, it remains unclear whether major funds are aggressively accumulating shares at these levels or maintaining a neutral stance while awaiting further catalysts. The price action alone does not reveal if sophisticated players view this valuation as an entry point for long-term exposure or a zone where they might be reducing existing holdings to lock in gains from prior rallies. Without visible divergences between price movement and trading volume, the intensity of institutional interest appears ambiguous at this snapshot in time. Large entities often utilize technical structures like support and resistance levels derived from historical averages to gauge market sentiment; however, since those specific metrics are not present here, one cannot determine if the current level represents a significant floor where defensive positioning is occurring or a ceiling that might trigger profit-taking among momentum-driven funds. The sector's broader dynamics likely influence how institutional capital allocates resources into real estate equities, but the immediate technical picture for JLL lacks the granular indicators typically used to infer aggressive buying pressure or sustained selling by market makers. Ultimately, the data provided offers a static view of price rather than a dynamic narrative of institutional behavior. Traders and analysts must look beyond the single price point to identify
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-14 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2019-05-16 | $0.4300 | +4.9% |
| 2018-11-15 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
| 2018-05-17 | $0.4100 | +10.8% |
| 2017-11-15 | $0.3700 | +5.7% |
| 2017-05-11 | $0.3500 | +6.1% |
| 2016-11-10 | $0.3300 | +6.5% |
| 2016-05-11 | $0.3100 | +6.9% |
| 2015-11-10 | $0.2900 | +7.4% |
| 2015-05-13 | $0.2700 | +8.0% |
| 2014-11-12 | $0.2500 | +108.3% |
| 2014-09-25 | $0.1200 | +9.1% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IJJ or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell JLL shares regardless of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to JLL through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with JLL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
JLL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 JLL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.9% of the IJJ (IJJ) and 0.8% of the MDYV (MDYV). Across 14 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (10.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest JLL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
JLL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated over the past year sits near $301.08 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $295.99 sits 1.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
JLL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated converts 69% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 630 | $310.66 | $195,715.8 |
| 2026-04-28 | 49 | $341.87 | $16,751.63 |
| 2026-04-27 | 101 | $338.56 | $34,194.56 |
| 2026-03-17 | 301 | $300.57 | $90,471.57 |
| 2026-02-10 | 82 | $346.48 | $28,411.36 |
| 2026-01-20 | 17,108 | $355.61 | $6.1M |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $336.65 | $33,665 |
| 2025-12-02 | 9,407 | $323.85 | $3.0M |
| 2025-11-28 | 40 | $330.03 | $13,201.2 |
| 2025-10-24 | 663 | $316.39 | $209,766.57 |
| 2025-10-23 | 1,149 | $313.02 | $359,659.98 |
| 2025-10-20 | 408 | $300.55 | $122,624.4 |
| 2025-10-14 | 1,000 | $290.51 | $290,510 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CBRE | 0.913 | 0.921 | High co-movement |
| MC | 0.640 | 0.612 | Moderate |
| BXP | 0.619 | 0.650 | Moderate |
| VNO | 0.592 | 0.603 | Moderate |
| KEY | 0.568 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| KKR | 0.566 | 0.522 | Moderate |
| BLK | 0.560 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.560 | 0.527 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.559 | 0.478 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare JLL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.