Copart, Inc. (CPRT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 17.6x earnings — a 62% discount to the sector average of 46.5x — CPRT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 20.1. DCF fair value of $33 suggests 18% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Copart, Inc. are anchored by exceptionally high profitability rather than operational leverage or balance sheet expansion. With a net margin of 33.4% driving the return on equity to 16.9%, the company's value creation stems primarily from superior pricing power and cost discipline rather than asset turnover or financial leverage. This robust earnings quality is corroborated by strong solvency metrics, evidenced by an Altman Z-Score of 26.2 and a deeply negative Beneish M-Score of -2.69, which signals low likelihood of earnings manipulation despite a moderate Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicating some recent financial weakness. The business model demonstrates consistent revenue growth of 9.7% YoY underpinned by gross margins exceeding 45%, reflecting a durable competitive moat within the industrial sector.
Valuation analysis reveals a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models, with the current P/E ratio of 21.0x trading at a substantial discount to the industrials sector average of 32.1x. However, discounted cash flow modeling suggests this valuation gap is not fully justified by fundamentals; the implied fair value stands at $27, representing approximately -19.9% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 12.8%. This disconnect implies that while the stock appears cheap relative to peers, the market may be pricing in lower future growth expectations or demanding a higher risk premium than historical averages suggest.
Risk assessment highlights notable divergences between fundamental strength and recent performance drivers. While the firm exhibits robust profitability characteristics with an RMW factor of 0.149, it has recently underperformed on a value-adjusted basis, registering a Fama-French alpha of -50.50% annually. Compounding this technical weakness is active insider selling totaling $1,009,753 over the last ninety days, which contrasts with the company's otherwise sound balance sheet and margin profile. These factors collectively suggest that while the underlying business generates strong cash flows, recent market dynamics and internal sentiment may be suppressing the stock price below its calculated intrinsic worth.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $39 | $30 | $24 |
| 3% | $45 | $33 | $26 |
| 4% | $54 | $37 | $28 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $27.61.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $33 (+17.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 23% below its 5-year average P/E of 22.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical profile of Copart, Inc. reflects a period where price action has stabilized near $33.44 within the Industrials sector, presenting a snapshot that requires careful interpretation regarding momentum sustainability. While specific drawdown metrics and volatility readings are not explicitly detailed in the provided data points, the proximity to this price level suggests a consolidation phase rather than an aggressive breakout or breakdown. The absence of extreme recent fluctuations implies that market participants may be waiting for additional catalysts before committing to directional moves, creating an environment where structural trends remain ambiguous without further confirmation from broader volume profiles or macroeconomic shifts affecting the industrial landscape. Assessing whether any observed momentum is robust or merely fragile hinges on how this price point interacts with unseen support and resistance zones that typically define risk dynamics in equity markets. Without explicit data on recent peak-to-trough declines or standard deviation measures, it remains difficult to determine if the current valuation represents a long-term equilibrium or a temporary lull preceding significant volatility expansion. The fundamental backdrop of the sector will likely play a critical role in validating whether this price level acts as a durable floor or a precarious ceiling, influencing how quickly any potential reversal could accelerate into a sustained trend. Ultimately, the interplay between these latent risk factors and future earnings performance will dictate whether the current setup evolves into a definitive structural shift or reverts to mean behavior driven by broader market sentiment.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MOAT or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CPRT shares regardless of Copart, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to CPRT through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Copart, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Copart, Inc. (CPRT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CPRT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CPRT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 CPRT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Copart, Inc. (CPRT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the MOAT (MOAT) and 0.5% of the VOT (VOT). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 160M shares (17.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CPRT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CPRT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Copart, Inc. over the past year sits near $33.52 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $27.61 sits 17.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CPRT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Copart, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Copart, Inc. converts 64% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 42 | $33.28 | $1,397.76 |
| 2026-05-20 | 21 | $33.12 | $695.52 |
| 2026-05-15 | 27,932 | $32.65 | $911,979.8 |
| 2026-05-13 | 43,821 | $33.44 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-04 | 1 | $33.27 | $33.27 |
| 2026-05-01 | 580,296 | $33.11 | $19.2M |
| 2026-04-22 | 1 | $33.74 | $33.74 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $33.29 | $199.74 |
| 2026-04-14 | 107 | $33.25 | $3,557.75 |
| 2026-03-25 | 89 | $32.84 | $2,922.76 |
| 2026-03-24 | 43 | $33.39 | $1,435.77 |
| 2026-03-23 | 22 | $32.86 | $722.92 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1 | $33.88 | $33.88 |
| 2026-03-16 | 50 | $34.09 | $1,704.5 |
| 2026-03-05 | 277 | $37.94 | $10,509.38 |
| 2026-03-04 | 122,204 | $38.48 | $4.7M |
| 2026-02-24 | 108,857 | $35.36 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-23 | 84,000 | $36.48 | $3.1M |
| 2026-01-29 | 115,244 | $40.62 | $4.7M |
| 2026-01-27 | 581 | $41.54 | $24,134.74 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1,979 | $41.40 | $81,930.6 |
| 2026-01-21 | 554,713 | $40.71 | $22.6M |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,163 | $41.04 | $47,729.52 |
| 2026-01-14 | 177,677 | $39.87 | $7.1M |
| 2026-01-09 | 650 | $39.04 | $25,376 |
| 2025-12-22 | 4,500 | $39.07 | $175,815 |
| 2025-12-17 | 1,027 | $39.15 | $40,207.05 |
| 2025-11-26 | 4,009 | $39.06 | $156,591.54 |
| 2025-11-24 | 24,871 | $40.73 | $1.0M |
| 2025-11-19 | 105,050 | $41.32 | $4.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CTAS | 0.474 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| PAYX | 0.420 | 0.435 | Moderate |
| PAYC | 0.413 | 0.424 | Moderate |
| DIS | 0.407 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| WCN | 0.402 | 0.482 | Moderate |
| XRAY | 0.395 | 0.396 | Moderate |
| ROP | 0.394 | 0.441 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CPRT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.