Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicWCN trades at 36.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.9. DCF fair value of $69 implies 57% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency appears constrained, as the return on invested capital of 7.3% sits below typical hurdle rates for high-quality growth equities, despite a DuPont-decomposed ROE of 13.1% driven primarily by leverage (2.56x equity multiplier) rather than operational margin expansion or asset turnover optimization. While profitability metrics remain robust with an 11.4% net margin and strong gross margins at 42.4%, the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate financial strength, contrasted by a Beneish M-Score of -2.71 that indicates low earnings manipulation risk. This structural setup supports steady revenue growth of 6.1% YoY but highlights a reliance on balance sheet leverage to sustain returns rather than organic efficiency gains.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models, with the current P/E ratio at 39.8x substantially exceeding historical norms and sector averages implied by such high multiples. A discounted cash flow analysis anchors fair value at $71, implying that the prevailing price embeds expectations for an annual free cash flow growth rate of 11.0% over a decade—a trajectory not yet realized given the modest revenue expansion. Consequently, the stock trades with approximately -56.4% downside relative to this DCF estimate, suggesting the market is pricing in aggressive future performance that may be difficult to sustain without improved capital efficiency or margin compression relief.
Risk-adjusted return profiles further complicate the investment case; a Fama-French alpha of -2.08% annually indicates underperformance after adjusting for risk factors over time. Although the stock exhibits a 0.178 tilt toward value characteristics (HML factor), this is offset by neutral profitability signals (-0.077 RMW score). Compounding these fundamental headwinds, insider activity over the past ninety days reveals $200,618 in net selling, which often serves as a contrarian signal of diminished confidence from those with superior information regarding future cash flows or operational challenges ahead.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $95 | $54 | $31 |
| 3% | $132 | $69 | $39 |
| 4% | $205 | $91 | $48 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $149.09.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $69 (-57.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 3% above its 5-year average P/E of 37.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.3500 | +11.1% |
| 2025-08-06 | $0.3150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-07 | $0.3150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-27 | $0.3150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-07 | $0.3150 | +10.5% |
| 2024-08-07 | $0.2850 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-07 | $0.2850 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-27 | $0.2850 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-07 | $0.2850 | +11.8% |
| 2023-08-15 | $0.2550 | 0.0% |
| 2023-05-09 | $0.2550 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOT or VIGI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WCN shares regardless of Waste Connections, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to WCN through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Waste Connections, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with WCN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WCN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 WCN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the VOT (VOT) and 0.8% of the VIGI (VIGI). Across 13 tracked ETFs, approximately 27M shares (10.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest WCN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WCN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Waste Connections, Inc. over the past year sits near $165.43 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $149.09 sits 9.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WCN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Waste Connections, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Waste Connections, Inc. converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 382 | $153.57 | $58,663.74 |
| 2026-05-06 | 248 | $157.66 | $39,099.68 |
| 2026-05-01 | 845 | $164.72 | $139,188.4 |
| 2026-04-22 | 6 | $157.93 | $947.58 |
| 2026-04-21 | 246 | $159.88 | $39,330.48 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,467 | $159.63 | $553,437.21 |
| 2026-04-14 | 3,796 | $161.71 | $613,851.16 |
| 2026-04-02 | 74 | $162.82 | $12,048.68 |
| 2026-03-27 | 53 | $157.18 | $8,330.54 |
| 2026-03-24 | 248 | $162.30 | $40,250.4 |
| 2026-03-18 | 164 | $167.04 | $27,394.56 |
| 2026-03-13 | 169,224 | $166.96 | $28.3M |
| 2026-03-10 | 1,251 | $171.73 | $214,834.23 |
| 2026-03-06 | 19,163 | $170.73 | $3.3M |
| 2026-02-24 | 230 | $163.00 | $37,490 |
| 2026-02-13 | 4 | $157.58 | $630.32 |
| 2026-01-14 | 1,489 | $163.06 | $242,796.34 |
| 2026-01-08 | 27 | $168.53 | $4,550.31 |
| 2026-01-05 | 9 | $174.12 | $1,567.08 |
| 2025-12-31 | 58 | $178.15 | $10,332.7 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2,245 | $177.00 | $397,365 |
| 2025-12-22 | 5,663 | $175.18 | $992,044.34 |
| 2025-12-19 | 185 | $175.62 | $32,489.7 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,650 | $171.36 | $282,744 |
| 2025-12-11 | 261 | $168.01 | $43,850.61 |
| 2025-12-10 | 35,165 | $168.32 | $5.9M |
| 2025-12-03 | 29,037 | $173.28 | $5.0M |
| 2025-12-01 | 3 | $176.55 | $529.65 |
| 2025-11-26 | 4,400 | $176.50 | $776,600 |
| 2025-11-21 | 10,277 | $173.52 | $1.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| RSG | 0.711 | 0.693 | High co-movement |
| WM | 0.700 | 0.645 | High co-movement |
| ADP | 0.441 | 0.451 | Moderate |
| AMH | 0.398 | 0.361 | Moderate |
| CTAS | 0.394 | 0.361 | Moderate |
| ICE | 0.388 | 0.364 | Moderate |
| MAA | 0.387 | 0.460 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.376 | 0.219 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.376 | 0.316 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WCN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.