Republic Services, Inc. (RSG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 28.7x earnings — a 36% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — RSG is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.0. DCF fair value of $214 suggests 0% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of RSG demonstrates a modest spread between ROIC and WACC at +0.8%, indicating that the firm generates returns slightly above its cost of capital, though not with aggressive excess power. The DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 17.9% driven primarily by high net margins of 12.9% rather than asset turnover or leverage, which sits at a moderate equity multiplier of 2.87x given the low asset turnover of 0.48x. Financial distress and earnings quality metrics present a mixed picture; while the Altman Z-Score of 3.0 suggests a safe distance from bankruptcy and the Beneish M-Score of -2.73 points to low manipulation risk, the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects solid but not exceptional fundamental strength relative to peers.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in optimistic future cash flow assumptions that may exceed current operational realities. With a P/E ratio of 32.6x significantly elevated against historical norms and sector averages, the stock trades at a premium justified only if the implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 7.7% materializes. The DCF model indicates fair value is effectively flat with current prices, showing negligible upside potential despite the high profitability factor loading observed in Fama-French returns. This disconnect implies that any deviation from the assumed growth trajectory could result in a meaningful compression of valuation multiples.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights significant alpha generation relative to standard risk factors over recent periods. The annualized Fama-French Alpha stands at 10.47%, suggesting strong outperformance after adjusting for market, size, and value exposures, while the positive HML tilt of 0.147 confirms a distinct preference for value characteristics within the portfolio construction framework. However, insider activity remains neutral with zero net flow over the last ninety days, offering no additional signal regarding management's view on future prospects. Investors must weigh the substantial historical alpha and profitability against the limited valuation cushion and modest ROIC spread when assessing total return potential.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $258 | $174 | $115 |
| 3% | $346 | $214 | $134 |
| 4% | $523 | $277 | $159 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $201.67.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $214 (+0.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 20% above its 5-year average P/E of 26.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $0.6250 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.6250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-02 | $0.6250 | +7.8% |
| 2025-07-02 | $0.5800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-02 | $0.5800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-02 | $0.5800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-02 | $0.5800 | +8.4% |
| 2024-07-02 | $0.5350 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-01 | $0.5350 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-29 | $0.5350 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-29 | $0.5350 | +8.1% |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.4950 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VFMV or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell RSG shares regardless of Republic Services, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to RSG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Republic Services, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with RSG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
RSG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 RSG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the VFMV (VFMV) and 0.8% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 33M shares (10.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest RSG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
RSG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Republic Services, Inc. over the past year sits near $213.00 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $201.67 sits 5.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
RSG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Republic Services, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Republic Services, Inc. converts 47% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 53% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2,581 | $203.67 | $525,672.27 |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,315 | $209.22 | $275,124.3 |
| 2026-04-30 | 695 | $208.31 | $144,775.45 |
| 2026-04-21 | 1,073 | $208.45 | $223,666.85 |
| 2026-04-20 | 4 | $207.66 | $830.64 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $211.73 | $635.19 |
| 2026-04-14 | 119 | $213.48 | $25,404.12 |
| 2026-04-06 | 162 | $223.19 | $36,156.78 |
| 2026-03-26 | 5,025 | $215.55 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 20 | $215.27 | $4,305.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,909 | $219.30 | $418,643.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | 119 | $229.00 | $27,251 |
| 2026-02-23 | 983 | $219.50 | $215,768.5 |
| 2026-02-19 | 783 | $216.84 | $169,785.72 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1,877 | $221.19 | $415,173.63 |
| 2026-02-03 | 104 | $215.73 | $22,435.92 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,062 | $210.62 | $223,678.44 |
| 2025-12-23 | 250 | $212.92 | $53,230 |
| 2025-11-26 | 8,974 | $217.09 | $1.9M |
| 2025-11-13 | 3,938 | $205.15 | $807,880.7 |
| 2025-11-12 | 3,939 | $207.13 | $815,885.07 |
| 2025-11-03 | 7,531 | $208.24 | $1.6M |
| 2025-10-31 | 1,050 | $209.92 | $220,416 |
| 2025-10-20 | 25 | $219.82 | $5,495.5 |
| 2025-10-14 | 3,973 | $223.04 | $886,137.92 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WM | 0.795 | 0.791 | High co-movement |
| WCN | 0.711 | 0.693 | High co-movement |
| VRSK | 0.462 | 0.372 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.459 | 0.357 | Moderate |
| WEC | 0.452 | 0.326 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.441 | 0.225 | Moderate |
| ED | 0.437 | 0.342 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.435 | 0.291 | Moderate |
| SO | 0.431 | 0.316 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare RSG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.