Waste Management, Inc. (WM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 30.6x earnings — a 32% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — WM is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.9. DCF fair value of $132 implies 43% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedWaste Management, Inc. demonstrates robust operational fundamentals anchored by a high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.76, signaling strong financial health with minimal earnings manipulation risk. Despite an Altman Z-Score of 3.0 indicating moderate safety distance from distress, the company's return profile is driven primarily by leverage rather than operational efficiency; while net margins remain healthy at 10.7% and asset turnover sits at 0.55x, a significant portion of the 27.1% ROE stems from an equity multiplier of 4.59x. This capital structure yields only a modest 1.1% spread between its 8.5% ROIC and 7.4% WACC, suggesting that excess returns are not substantially outpacing the cost of capital when leverage is accounted for.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a premium P/E multiple of 35.1x compared to its sector average of 32.1x, reflecting optimistic growth expectations embedded in current prices. However, discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value significantly lower than the current trading price, resulting in an estimated downside of approximately 41.9%. This discrepancy suggests the market is pricing for sustained free cash flow growth averaging 14.6% annually over the next decade—a trajectory that may be aggressive given the weak profitability factor alpha of -0.122 observed recently.
Risk assessment highlights a concerning divergence between fundamental quality and recent insider behavior, with net selling totaling over $23 million in the last ninety days. Furthermore, the stock exhibits negative Fama-French alpha of -0.66% annually, indicating underperformance relative to its risk factors despite holding a slight value tilt (HML: 0.188). The combination of elevated valuation premiums, potential downside according to DCF models, and active insider distribution warrants close scrutiny regarding whether current prices adequately compensate for these specific execution risks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 14% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $158 | $105 | $66 |
| 3% | $215 | $132 | $79 |
| 4% | $329 | $174 | $96 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $211.93.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $132 (-42.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 35% below its 5-year average P/E of 52.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedWaste Management (WM) is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong upward trend over the past few months. The RSI reading of 57.4 suggests that while there's currently positive momentum in the stock, it may be approaching an area where caution might be warranted as readings above 70 typically indicate overbought conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.9450 | +14.5% |
| 2025-12-05 | $0.8250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.8250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-06 | $0.8250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.8250 | +10.0% |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-07 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.7500 | +7.1% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-07 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-01 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IDU or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WM shares regardless of Waste Management, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $11.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to WM through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Waste Management, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Waste Management, Inc. (WM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NextEra Energy Inc (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with WM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 WM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.1% of the IDU (IDU) and 1.5% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 48M shares (12.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest WM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Waste Management, Inc. over the past year sits near $216.64 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $211.93 sits 2.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Waste Management, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Waste Management, Inc. converts 39% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 61% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 3,354 | $214.11 | $718,124.94 |
| 2026-05-11 | 2,613 | $215.37 | $562,761.81 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4,519 | $221.45 | $1.0M |
| 2026-05-07 | 4,677 | $220.52 | $1.0M |
| 2026-05-01 | 202,498 | $232.55 | $47.1M |
| 2026-04-28 | 776 | $226.20 | $175,531.2 |
| 2026-04-20 | 5,684 | $223.95 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-17 | 6,565 | $224.08 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-14 | 920 | $231.00 | $212,520 |
| 2026-03-25 | 11,155 | $224.94 | $2.5M |
| 2026-03-23 | 200 | $231.24 | $46,248 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,351 | $233.83 | $549,734.33 |
| 2026-03-19 | 616 | $233.79 | $144,014.64 |
| 2026-03-05 | 200 | $243.95 | $48,790 |
| 2026-02-23 | 3,131 | $230.31 | $721,100.61 |
| 2026-02-09 | 20 | $226.79 | $4,535.8 |
| 2026-01-20 | 96 | $221.23 | $21,238.08 |
| 2025-12-26 | 155 | $221.36 | $34,310.8 |
| 2025-12-08 | 364 | $213.58 | $77,743.12 |
| 2025-11-25 | 1 | $211.84 | $211.84 |
| 2025-11-21 | 95 | $216.80 | $20,596 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2,012 | $200.57 | $403,546.84 |
| 2025-10-30 | 2,130 | $197.53 | $420,738.9 |
| 2025-10-03 | 2,685 | $216.91 | $582,403.35 |
| 2025-10-01 | 48,874 | $220.83 | $10.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| RSG | 0.795 | 0.791 | High co-movement |
| WCN | 0.700 | 0.645 | High co-movement |
| DUK | 0.475 | 0.351 | Moderate |
| ED | 0.457 | 0.357 | Moderate |
| ORLY | 0.445 | 0.358 | Moderate |
| WEC | 0.440 | 0.319 | Moderate |
| PGR | 0.440 | 0.434 | Moderate |
| CMS | 0.435 | 0.390 | Moderate |
| ATO | 0.427 | 0.315 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.