Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicMAA trades at 39.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 47.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.5. DCF fair value of $55 implies 56% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Mid-America Apartment Communities reveal a significant divergence between operational profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition highlights robust net margins at 20.2% driven by strong gross returns, this advantage is offset by low asset turnover of 0.18x and elevated leverage via an equity multiplier of 2.05x. The resulting ROIC of 4.8% falls substantially below the estimated WACC of 8.3%, creating a negative spread that suggests value destruction on reinvested capital. This structural inefficiency is reinforced by weak Piotroski F-Score fundamentals and a distress-prone Altman Z-Score of 1.5, indicating potential balance sheet fragility despite consistent margin generation.
Valuation metrics present a stark contrast between current market pricing and intrinsic model valuations. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 33.0x, which remains significantly discounted relative to the sector average of 87.1x, yet this apparent bargain is challenged by a DCF fair value of $56 implying nearly -54% downside from current levels. This wide discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in conservative growth assumptions or discounting the capital inefficiency identified earlier, as the implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate sits at just 6.9%. The disconnect between low relative valuation and negative absolute fair value underscores a complex risk-reward profile where traditional multiples do not fully capture underlying economic deterioration.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis through significant underperformance on factor-based screens. The annual Fama-French alpha of -35.30% indicates persistent out-of-sample underperformance relative to its benchmark, while a neutral Profitability Factor score fails to offset the company's Value tilt despite an HML score of 0.468. Compounding these quantitative signals, insider activity over the past ninety days reflects $897,855 in net selling, adding a layer of caution regarding management confidence. Collectively, these metrics paint a picture of a capital-intensive business struggling to generate returns above its cost of capital while facing headwinds from both valuation compression and negative factor exposure.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $81 | $43 | $24 |
| 3% | $110 | $55 | $30 |
| 4% | $166 | $72 | $38 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $128.96.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $55 (-56.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 8% below its 5-year average P/E of 36.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. is currently trading at $126.39 within the Real Estate sector, presenting a scenario where price action must be weighed against inherent industry volatility. The specific technical indicators provided lack granular data regarding moving averages, relative strength index values, or volume profiles necessary to determine if recent momentum stems from structural shifts in demand or temporary market noise. Without metrics defining the rate of change or breadth of participation, it remains unclear whether the current price level represents a sustainable equilibrium or a precarious peak susceptible to rapid correction should fundamental underpinnings weaken. The absence of drawdown data prevents an assessment of how much downside protection exists relative to recent highs, leaving open the question of whether the asset has absorbed significant stress or is merely in the early stages of a potential decline. Similarly, without explicit volatility measures, one cannot gauge if price fluctuations are driven by normal market rotation or elevated uncertainty specific to the Real Estate sector's current cycle. This information gap makes it difficult to distinguish between a robust trend supported by strong fundamentals and a fragile rally that may lack the breadth required for long-term stability. Consequently, the technical picture suggests caution in interpreting immediate directional bias without further confirmation from broader market context or deeper fundamental analysis regarding rental growth and interest rate sensitivity. The current price of $126.39 stands as an isolated data point; its significance depends entirely on future confirmations that are not visible in this limited snapshot. Readers must evaluate whether the existing setup
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | $1.5300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | $1.5300 | +1.0% |
| 2025-10-15 | $1.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-15 | $1.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-15 | $1.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-15 | $1.5150 | +3.1% |
| 2024-10-15 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-15 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-12 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-11 | $1.4700 | +5.0% |
| 2023-10-12 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-13 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MAA shares regardless of Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to MAA through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MAA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MAA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 MAA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.6% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 1.1% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 22M shares (19.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MAA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MAA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. over the past year sits near $133.43 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $128.96 sits 3.4% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MAA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. converts 57% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 16,266 | $130.30 | $2.1M |
| 2026-05-05 | 115 | $129.06 | $14,841.9 |
| 2026-04-29 | 4 | $130.38 | $521.52 |
| 2026-04-15 | 276 | $126.34 | $34,869.84 |
| 2026-03-30 | 3,699 | $120.57 | $445,988.43 |
| 2026-03-27 | 13,748 | $122.15 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-26 | 11,337 | $121.64 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-25 | 3,671 | $121.81 | $447,164.51 |
| 2026-03-19 | 52,131 | $125.80 | $6.6M |
| 2026-03-12 | 85 | $127.92 | $10,873.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | 73 | $134.41 | $9,811.93 |
| 2026-02-19 | 163 | $135.12 | $22,024.56 |
| 2026-01-29 | 125 | $132.46 | $16,557.5 |
| 2025-12-30 | 14 | $139.18 | $1,948.52 |
| 2025-11-25 | 2,107 | $133.31 | $280,884.17 |
| 2025-11-21 | 1,116 | $130.87 | $146,050.92 |
| 2025-11-20 | 4 | $129.83 | $519.32 |
| 2025-11-13 | 2 | $131.50 | $263 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2 | $127.04 | $254.08 |
| 2025-11-06 | 6 | $128.50 | $771 |
| 2025-10-24 | 515 | $134.43 | $69,231.45 |
| 2025-10-16 | 1,358 | $132.00 | $179,256 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CPT | 0.911 | 0.904 | High co-movement |
| EQR | 0.857 | 0.852 | High co-movement |
| UDR | 0.853 | 0.833 | High co-movement |
| AVB | 0.851 | 0.830 | High co-movement |
| ESS | 0.824 | 0.798 | High co-movement |
| AMH | 0.755 | 0.751 | High co-movement |
| VRTPX | 0.748 | 0.662 | High co-movement |
| INVH | 0.729 | 0.678 | High co-movement |
| FRT | 0.604 | 0.511 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MAA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.