Equity Residential (EQR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 26.2x earnings — a 45% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — EQR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.0. DCF fair value of $45 implies 26% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Equity Residential reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 5.9% falls short of the weighted average cost of capital at 8.1%, generating a negative spread that erodes long-term shareholder value despite strong operational leverage. This dynamic is partially masked by an ROE of 9.8% driven primarily by high net margins of 36.2% and significant financial leverage rather than asset efficiency, evidenced by a low turnover ratio of 0.15x. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate financial strength with stable fundamentals, an Altman Z-Score of 1.9 flags elevated distress risk relative to historical safety thresholds for the sector.
Valuation metrics indicate that current market pricing significantly exceeds intrinsic value derived from discounted cash flow analysis. With a price-to-earnings multiple of 20.5x trading well below the peer average but still implying substantial compression against a DCF fair value of $46, the stock appears overvalued given an implied long-term free cash flow growth rate of only 4.7%. The market is pricing in growth expectations that are not supported by the underlying capital efficiency or the negative risk-adjusted returns currently being generated.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis, highlighted by a substantial Fama-French alpha of -26.20% annually and recent insider activity showing $914,846 in net selling over 90 days. Although the stock exhibits a slight value tilt with an HML factor of 0.299, the combination of negative risk-adjusted performance metrics and active insider divestment suggests caution regarding future price discovery. The profitability factor remains neutral at 0.076, offering no additional buffer against these structural headwinds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $64 | $36 | $23 |
| 3% | $86 | $45 | $27 |
| 4% | $130 | $58 | $33 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $66.21.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $45 (-25.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 1% below its 5-year average P/E of 21.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAt the current price of $65.74, Equity Residential exhibits a technical configuration where larger market participants may be evaluating support levels near recent moving averages. The presence of short-term crossovers suggests that some institutional capital might be rotating into or out of the position depending on whether these lines act as dynamic floors or ceilings for accumulation. Volume trends accompanying this price action could indicate that significant holders are either defending their positions against volatility or testing liquidity at key technical thresholds, reflecting a cautious stance rather than aggressive conviction in immediate directional moves. Institutional positioning often lags behind retail sentiment until momentum shifts confirm a new trend; therefore, the current setup implies that major players are likely waiting for clearer confirmation before committing substantial capital to either side of the trade. The interaction between price and these technical markers suggests an equilibrium where neither bulls nor bears have yet established complete dominance, leading to potential consolidation phases typical of real estate equities facing macroeconomic headwinds or sector-specific adjustments. Observers should note that any breakout from this range would require sustained volume participation to validate whether institutional interest is truly aligning with the current price trajectory. Ultimately, the technical landscape presents a scenario where larger entities appear to be monitoring supply and demand dynamics closely rather than executing large-scale directional bets at these specific levels. The market structure indicates that while there are defined zones of interest for algorithmic and discretionary trading desks, the absence of decisive volume surges or clear trend reversals suggests continued uncertainty regarding immediate institutional intent. Tr
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | $0.7030 | +1.4% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.6930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-25 | $0.6930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-24 | $0.6930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.6930 | +2.7% |
| 2025-01-02 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-24 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-01 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-22 | $0.6750 | +1.8% |
| 2023-12-29 | $0.6630 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-25 | $0.6630 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-23 | $0.6630 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or IYR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EQR shares regardless of Equity Residential's individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to EQR through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Equity Residential to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Equity Residential (EQR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with EQR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EQR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 EQR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Equity Residential (EQR) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 1.6% of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 70M shares (18.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest EQR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EQR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Equity Residential over the past year sits near $61.48 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $66.21 trades 7.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EQR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Equity Residential convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Equity Residential converts 52% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 248 | $65.54 | $16,253.92 |
| 2026-05-07 | 1,933 | $66.16 | $127,887.28 |
| 2026-04-29 | 7 | $65.15 | $456.05 |
| 2026-04-24 | 117 | $62.65 | $7,330.05 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,056 | $61.70 | $126,855.2 |
| 2026-04-20 | 154 | $62.68 | $9,652.72 |
| 2026-04-16 | 218 | $61.30 | $13,363.4 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $61.36 | $184.08 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,222 | $60.78 | $74,273.16 |
| 2026-04-10 | 8,223 | $60.46 | $497,162.58 |
| 2026-04-09 | 252 | $60.80 | $15,321.6 |
| 2026-04-01 | 14 | $59.15 | $828.1 |
| 2026-03-31 | 9,447 | $58.58 | $553,405.26 |
| 2026-03-27 | 416 | $59.51 | $24,756.16 |
| 2026-03-25 | 34 | $58.67 | $1,994.78 |
| 2026-03-24 | 4 | $58.41 | $233.64 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2,619 | $60.06 | $157,297.14 |
| 2026-03-11 | 1,039 | $61.48 | $63,877.72 |
| 2026-03-10 | 2,279 | $62.18 | $141,708.22 |
| 2026-02-23 | 6,994 | $62.60 | $437,824.4 |
| 2026-02-19 | 600 | $63.59 | $38,154 |
| 2026-02-11 | 3,956 | $65.57 | $259,394.92 |
| 2026-02-10 | 39,203 | $64.67 | $2.5M |
| 2026-02-05 | 2,251 | $63.08 | $141,993.08 |
| 2026-02-03 | 10,691 | $61.61 | $658,672.51 |
| 2026-01-16 | 918 | $61.17 | $56,154.06 |
| 2026-01-12 | 3,423 | $60.44 | $206,886.12 |
| 2025-12-29 | 47 | $63.09 | $2,965.23 |
| 2025-12-23 | 31 | $62.29 | $1,930.99 |
| 2025-12-12 | 108,219 | $60.63 | $6.6M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AVB | 0.879 | 0.807 | High co-movement |
| ESS | 0.868 | 0.831 | High co-movement |
| MAA | 0.857 | 0.852 | High co-movement |
| UDR | 0.851 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
| CPT | 0.850 | 0.814 | High co-movement |
| VRTPX | 0.785 | 0.650 | High co-movement |
| AMH | 0.717 | 0.679 | High co-movement |
| INVH | 0.717 | 0.631 | High co-movement |
| FRT | 0.661 | 0.573 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EQR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.