Camden Property Trust (CPT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 29.8x earnings — a 37% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — CPT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.6. DCF fair value of $52 implies 49% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Camden Property Trust reveal a significant capital allocation challenge, underscored by an ROIC-WACC spread of -3.4%, indicating that current returns fail to cover the cost of capital despite a robust 24.4% net margin and 61.4% gross margin. The DuPont decomposition shows this equity efficiency is driven primarily by leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.04x) rather than operational velocity, as asset turnover remains low at 0.17x, resulting in an ROE of only 8.7%. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.77 suggests earnings are not manipulated and the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects moderate financial strength, the Altman Z-Score of 1.6 signals elevated distress risk that contradicts the high profitability metrics.
Valuation analysis presents a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models; trading at 28.8x earnings versus a sector average of 84.5x suggests the stock is not priced for extreme growth, yet the DCF model implies substantial downside with a fair value of $53 representing -45.6% from current levels. This discrepancy arises because the market appears to be pricing in an unrealistic 12.3% annual FCF growth rate over ten years, which conflicts with the observed revenue stagnation of just 1.9%. The negative DCF upside indicates that current expectations for cash flow expansion are likely overstated relative to the company's historical performance and capital efficiency constraints.
Risk-adjusted returns further complicate the investment thesis, as evidenced by a Fama-French Alpha of -25.40% annually, suggesting the stock has underperformed its risk factors significantly over time. Although the Value Factor (HML) score of 0.391 indicates a tilt toward value characteristics that may offer mean reversion potential, this is offset by neutral profitability factor exposure and concerning insider activity showing $6.2 million in net selling over ninety days. Collectively, these metrics paint a picture of a capital-intensive business facing margin compression risks and valuation headwinds, where the gap between implied growth assumptions and actual operational leverage creates substantial downside volatility potential.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $75 | $41 | $23 |
| 3% | $102 | $52 | $28 |
| 4% | $151 | $68 | $36 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $106.10.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $52 (-48.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 10% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCamden Property Trust currently trades at $104.61 within the real estate sector, presenting a technical snapshot where price action must be weighed against inherent industry sensitivities. The absence of specific moving average crossovers or relative strength index readings in the provided data limits an immediate assessment of short-term momentum direction; however, the current valuation level serves as a critical reference point for evaluating potential drawdown risks. In real estate equities, volatility is often structurally linked to interest rate fluctuations and occupancy trends rather than isolated technical noise, meaning that any price weakness could reflect broader fundamental headwinds more than mere market sentiment shifts. The relationship between the current price of $104.61 and historical support or resistance levels remains undefined without additional chart data, yet this ambiguity highlights a state where momentum appears fragile if external economic pressures intensify. Without corroborating indicators such as volume spikes or trendline breaks, it is difficult to distinguish whether observed stability represents a robust structural foundation or a temporary consolidation preceding deeper corrections. Investors must consider that in the property trust sector, technical patterns often lag behind fundamental catalysts like rental growth rates and financing costs, suggesting that reliance on price alone may obscure underlying vulnerabilities. Ultimately, the technical picture for this asset remains incomplete based solely on the single data point provided, necessitating a cautious interpretation of its risk profile. The current level does not inherently signal an imminent reversal or continuation without context regarding recent volatility ranges or sector-wide sentiment shifts. Market participants should
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $1.0600 | +1.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | $1.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.0500 | +1.9% |
| 2024-12-18 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $1.0300 | +3.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SPYD or XLRE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CPT shares regardless of Camden Property Trust's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to CPT through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Camden Property Trust to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Camden Property Trust (CPT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CPT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 22 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CPT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 CPT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Camden Property Trust (CPT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the SPYD (SPYD) and 1.1% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE). Across 22 tracked ETFs, approximately 18M shares (18.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CPT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 22 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CPT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Camden Property Trust over the past year sits near $108.31 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $106.10 sits 2.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CPT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Camden Property Trust convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Camden Property Trust converts 34% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 66% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 144 | $105.35 | $15,170.4 |
| 2026-04-16 | 403 | $101.38 | $40,856.14 |
| 2026-04-14 | 232 | $100.82 | $23,390.24 |
| 2026-04-08 | 181 | $100.83 | $18,250.23 |
| 2026-03-31 | 300 | $97.84 | $29,352 |
| 2026-03-25 | 10 | $97.91 | $979.1 |
| 2026-03-24 | 7 | $98.15 | $687.05 |
| 2026-03-23 | 5 | $97.36 | $486.8 |
| 2026-03-20 | 31,426 | $99.68 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-16 | 1,247 | $100.61 | $125,460.67 |
| 2026-03-05 | 108 | $108.75 | $11,745 |
| 2026-03-02 | 8,849 | $108.34 | $958,700.66 |
| 2026-02-27 | 15,105 | $110.24 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-13 | 3 | $107.48 | $322.44 |
| 2026-02-12 | 530 | $110.76 | $58,702.8 |
| 2026-02-10 | 6,760 | $107.88 | $729,268.8 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1 | $106.63 | $106.63 |
| 2026-02-04 | 29 | $106.92 | $3,100.68 |
| 2026-01-29 | 185 | $107.22 | $19,835.7 |
| 2026-01-28 | 483 | $108.92 | $52,608.36 |
| 2026-01-26 | 358 | $107.86 | $38,613.88 |
| 2025-12-22 | 93,742 | $107.28 | $10.1M |
| 2025-12-18 | 14 | $107.79 | $1,509.06 |
| 2025-11-21 | 19,731 | $103.76 | $2.0M |
| 2025-11-20 | 12,351 | $102.16 | $1.3M |
| 2025-10-16 | 3,124 | $101.70 | $317,710.8 |
| 2025-10-14 | 227 | $101.81 | $23,110.87 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MAA | 0.911 | 0.904 | High co-movement |
| UDR | 0.876 | 0.832 | High co-movement |
| ESS | 0.851 | 0.824 | High co-movement |
| EQR | 0.850 | 0.814 | High co-movement |
| AVB | 0.840 | 0.802 | High co-movement |
| VRTPX | 0.732 | 0.629 | High co-movement |
| AMH | 0.731 | 0.713 | High co-movement |
| INVH | 0.726 | 0.673 | High co-movement |
| FRT | 0.650 | 0.565 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CPT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.