Equinor ASA (EQNR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedEquinor demonstrates robust capital efficiency with an ROIC of 20.3%, significantly outperforming typical cost of debt thresholds, yet the DuPont decomposition reveals a structural constraint where low net margins at 4.8% limit overall return generation despite healthy gross margins of 36.2%. This margin compression suggests that high operating leverage or elevated costs are dampening profitability relative to revenue, creating a ceiling on equity returns even as capital turnover remains efficient. The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates moderate financial strength with some deterioration in recent fundamentals compared to the ideal score of 9, while the Beneish M-Score of -3.00 strongly signals low earnings manipulation risk and high confidence in reported net income quality.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value calculations; trading at approximately half the sector average P/E multiple of 30.5x implies significant discounting relative to peer energy peers, potentially reflecting concerns over the modest 3.2% year-over-year revenue growth rather than fundamental weakness. The DCF model anchors fair value at $17, suggesting that current market prices may be priced for stagnation or downside risk if implied growth assumptions fail to materialize, whereas the wide gap between this intrinsic valuation and historical multiples could indicate a mean reversion opportunity contingent on margin expansion or volume recovery.
The synthesis of these factors paints a picture of a financially transparent entity with strong cash conversion capabilities trading at a deep discount to sector norms, though the modest revenue trajectory limits upside catalysts in the near term. Investors must weigh whether the current pricing adequately compensates for slow growth or if it represents an undervalued entry point assuming management can successfully unlock margin potential without compromising the company's solid credit profile indicated by low manipulation scores.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $22 | $15 | $10 |
| 3% | $26 | $17 | $12 |
| 4% | $33 | $20 | $13 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $17 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VGK or VYMI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EQNR shares regardless of Equinor ASA's individual fundamentals. We estimate $837M of passive capital is structurally linked to EQNR through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on EQNR's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Equinor ASA to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Equinor ASA (EQNR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SAMSUNG ELECTR GDR REG S (SMSN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with EQNR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EQNR Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest EQNR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EQNR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Equinor ASA convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Equinor ASA converts 16% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 84% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 4,683 | $38.28 | $179,265.24 |
| 2026-05-13 | 543 | $38.52 | $20,916.36 |
| 2026-05-12 | 140,426 | $38.22 | $5.4M |
| 2026-05-08 | 363,625 | $36.91 | $13.4M |
| 2026-05-07 | 178,391 | $38.03 | $6.8M |
| 2026-05-06 | 6,673 | $41.36 | $275,995.28 |
| 2026-05-05 | 19,717 | $41.32 | $814,706.44 |
| 2026-05-04 | 112,794 | $39.71 | $4.5M |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,578 | $40.75 | $64,303.5 |
| 2026-04-30 | 4,866 | $40.07 | $194,980.62 |
| 2026-04-29 | 5,810 | $38.51 | $223,743.1 |
| 2026-04-28 | 7 | $38.05 | $266.35 |
| 2026-04-24 | 7,183 | $38.61 | $277,335.63 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,325 | $37.97 | $88,280.25 |
| 2026-04-22 | 12,115 | $37.65 | $456,129.75 |
| 2026-04-21 | 563,211 | $36.01 | $20.3M |
| 2026-04-20 | 598,196 | $35.47 | $21.2M |
| 2026-04-17 | 352 | $38.27 | $13,471.04 |
| 2026-04-16 | 17,340 | $36.82 | $638,458.8 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1,409 | $38.00 | $53,542 |
| 2026-04-14 | 99 | $39.20 | $3,880.8 |
| 2026-04-13 | 35,651 | $38.96 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-10 | 8,596 | $38.55 | $331,375.8 |
| 2026-04-09 | 65,936 | $39.33 | $2.6M |
| 2026-04-08 | 1,005 | $42.07 | $42,280.35 |
| 2026-04-07 | 85,927 | $41.95 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-06 | 85,464 | $41.75 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-02 | 73,336 | $40.39 | $3.0M |
| 2026-04-01 | 12,107 | $42.20 | $510,915.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | 14,966 | $42.40 | $634,558.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare EQNR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.