TechnipFMC plc (FTI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFTI trades at 26.2x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 34.8x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 3.6 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $147 implies 96% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedTechnipFMC plc exhibits robust fundamental economics, characterized by a high-quality earnings profile where the 20.5% ROIC significantly exceeds typical cost of capital thresholds. The DuPont decomposition reveals that this strong return on equity of 28.3% is primarily driven by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.97x) rather than operational efficiency gains, as asset turnover remains near unity and net margins sit at a modest 9.7%. This capital structure supports the company's pristine Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and low Beneish M-Score of -2.91, signaling exceptional financial health with no evidence of earnings manipulation despite aggressive leverage usage to boost returns.
Valuation metrics present a nuanced picture where the current P/E multiple of 30.9x tracks closely against the sector average of 31.4x, suggesting the market prices TechnipFMC as a standard industry peer rather than a distinct outlier. However, discounted cash flow analysis projects a substantial divergence between implied value and trading price; with a fair value estimate of $144 representing over 108% upside potential from current levels, the model assumes long-term free cash flow growth of only 4.9% annually over ten years. This wide gap implies that while the stock trades at a reasonable premium relative to peers today, significant future expansion in profitability or asset efficiency is required to realize intrinsic value.
Insider activity introduces a notable counterweight to these optimistic valuation metrics, as $75.7 million in net selling over the last 90 days suggests management may view current levels differently than algorithmic models do. While the Fama-French alpha data was not provided for this specific analysis, the combination of insider disposition and high leverage warrants scrutiny regarding risk-adjusted returns versus the theoretical upside derived from DCF assumptions. Investors must weigh the structural strength indicated by the nine-point Piotroski score against the cautionary signal of substantial executive offloading before drawing conclusions on future performance.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $184 | $130 | $100 |
| 3% | $222 | $147 | $109 |
| 4% | $284 | $171 | $121 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $69.45.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $147 (+96.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 160% above its 5-year average P/E of 12.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedTechnipFMC plc is currently trading at $72.25, a price point that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value and potential mean-reversion dynamics. Without specific upper or lower band boundaries provided in the immediate data set, the precise degree of deviation from statistical norms remains undefined; however, any current placement within such an envelope typically signals whether the asset is experiencing momentum-driven expansion toward resistance zones or contraction toward support levels. If the price resides near the outer limits of a standard Bollinger Band structure, it often suggests heightened volatility and a statistically probable tendency to revert toward the central moving average over time. Conversely, positioning well inside the bands might indicate a period of consolidation where directional movement is muted until a catalyst expands the range again. The sector classification as Energy adds another layer to this technical interpretation, implying that macroeconomic factors specific to commodity cycles could influence the stock's ability to sustain deviations from its historical mean. A price situated at $72.25 must be evaluated not just in isolation but relative to how far it has stretched beyond or retreated below its 20-day or 50-day simple moving averages, which serve as dynamic anchors for these envelopes. Observing whether the current level represents an extreme outlier or a moderate fluctuation is critical for gauging the likelihood of future price compression toward the mean. Ultimately, the technical setup hinges on determining if this specific valuation reflects temporary market inefficiency awaiting correction or sustained structural strength that may push
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-18 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-19 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-20 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-19 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-20 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-20 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-18 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-20 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-21 | $0.0500 | -48.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or IJK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FTI shares regardless of TechnipFMC plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to FTI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in TechnipFMC plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If TechnipFMC plc (FTI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FTI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 17 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FTI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 FTI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
TechnipFMC plc (FTI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.9% of the XES (XES) and 1.8% of the IJK (IJK). Across 15 tracked ETFs, approximately 40M shares (10.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FTI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 15 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FTI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for TechnipFMC plc over the past year sits near $38.98 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $69.45 trades 78.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FTI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does TechnipFMC plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
TechnipFMC plc converts 81% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 11.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 89 | $70.15 | $6,243.35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 127 | $71.03 | $9,020.81 |
| 2026-05-07 | 535 | $73.94 | $39,557.9 |
| 2026-05-04 | 949 | $75.79 | $71,924.71 |
| 2026-04-13 | 63,179 | $73.79 | $4.7M |
| 2026-03-23 | 16 | $65.26 | $1,044.16 |
| 2026-03-10 | 343 | $63.45 | $21,763.35 |
| 2026-03-06 | 73,071 | $64.44 | $4.7M |
| 2026-03-04 | 3,885 | $66.13 | $256,915.05 |
| 2026-02-27 | 9,222 | $67.29 | $620,548.38 |
| 2026-02-23 | 410 | $63.49 | $26,030.9 |
| 2026-02-03 | 440 | $56.45 | $24,838 |
| 2026-01-29 | 8,100 | $55.25 | $447,525 |
| 2026-01-23 | 27 | $53.97 | $1,457.19 |
| 2026-01-15 | 11,748 | $52.24 | $613,715.52 |
| 2026-01-02 | 8,700 | $44.56 | $387,672 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2,905 | $45.19 | $131,276.95 |
| 2025-12-30 | 2,800 | $44.69 | $125,132 |
| 2025-12-29 | 2,800 | $44.65 | $125,020 |
| 2025-12-24 | 3,327 | $45.16 | $150,247.32 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,692 | $46.42 | $78,542.64 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1,665 | $46.26 | $77,022.9 |
| 2025-12-10 | 1,665 | $45.86 | $76,356.9 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1,695 | $45.33 | $76,834.35 |
| 2025-12-08 | 895 | $46.02 | $41,187.9 |
| 2025-12-05 | 698 | $46.51 | $32,463.98 |
| 2025-12-04 | 696 | $46.67 | $32,482.32 |
| 2025-12-03 | 5,406 | $45.32 | $244,999.92 |
| 2025-12-02 | 648 | $45.64 | $29,574.72 |
| 2025-11-18 | 534 | $42.73 | $22,817.82 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| OII | 0.588 | 0.464 | Moderate |
| NOV | 0.571 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| BKR | 0.553 | 0.580 | Moderate |
| SLB | 0.548 | 0.530 | Moderate |
| NE | 0.525 | 0.526 | Moderate |
| HAL | 0.525 | 0.473 | Moderate |
| WFRD | 0.523 | 0.545 | Moderate |
| PTEN | 0.521 | 0.494 | Moderate |
| AROC | 0.513 | 0.553 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FTI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.